677
FXUS65 KBOU 062135
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
235 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EASE BY EARLY EVENING.
- LESS WIND AND STILL UNSEASONABLY MILD WEDNESDAY.
- TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW
FOR MOST OF THE AREA (MINUS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS) THURSDAY -
FRIDAY. PROBABILITY NOW UP TO 70-80% FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW FOR MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF LOVELAND. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
FOOTHILLS, AND PALMER DIVIDE.
- MUCH COLDER BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
RADAR INDICATES THE MOUNTAIN WAVE THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WINDS
TO AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE FOOTHILLS LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING IS RETREATING BACK UP THE FRONT RANGE. MEANWHILE, GUSTY
WINDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE PLAINS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THOSE WILL BE DECREASING WITH SUNSET OR
SHORTLY BEFORE, BRINGING AN END TO OUR FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
ON WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT.
THIS WILL MEAN WEAKER GRADIENTS AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR A WELCOME
CHANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH LEVELS SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WITH UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND I-25 ONCE MORE.
ALL EYES ARE LOOKING TO THURSDAY, AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A RARE BUT MEANINGFUL CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWED ABOUT TWO THIRDS OF
THE TOTAL RUNS (MAINLY EPS MEMBERS) SHOWING A DEEPER MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE
ABOUT A THIRD WERE STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER. WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN EVOLVING WE WOULD FAVOR THE DEEPER SOLUTION. THAT
WOULD GIVE US A LITTLE BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND THUS A HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF MORE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID, THAT
TRACK ALSO KEEPS THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH, AND
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SOME DRY INTRUSIONS FROM THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WOULD
STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND PALMER DIVIDE. DENVER
WOULD ESSENTIALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE, WITH MOST LIKELY A 1-4"
FORECAST ACROSS METRO - FAVORING THE SOUTH/WEST SIDES. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THERE ARE A COUPLE GEFS OUTLIERS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6" FOR DENVER, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF THAT IS
VERY SMALL, AS IN LESS THAN 10%. IN FACT, ONLY 4 OF THE 51 EPS
MEMBERS PRODUCED ANYTHING MORE THAN 4" FOR DENVER. AT LEAST ALMOST
ALL MEMBERS HAVE LIGHT MEASURABLE SNOW. CHANCES OF SNOW GREATER
THAN AN INCH GRADUALLY DECREASE TO THE NORTHEAST OF DENVER ACROSS
THE PLAINS, LARGELY BECAUSE OF WEAKER LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR DRY
AIR INTRUSION.
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START THURSDAY, BUT WITH
COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH TRAVEL
IMPACTS LIKELY BY EVENING. DEPENDING ON SNOW RATES, THIS COULD
IMPACT THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE IN DENVER AND THE
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. SNOW GRADUALLY DECREASES NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS
INTO KANSAS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE WOULD
STILL BE IMPACTED DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERED
ROADS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY RECOVER TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK, BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN SOLAR INSOLATION TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WOULD BE MUCH IMPROVED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
TRAILING DISTURBANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MODERATE TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS, BUT THAT'LL STILL FEEL COLD COMPARED TO OUR
RECENT WARMTH. FURTHER MODERATION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, DESPITE RIDGING
ALOFT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, WE'LL STILL BE PRONE TO BACKDOOR
COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THUS BRIEF COOLDOWNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH THE INVERSION
BREAKING, EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT DEN AND APA AND
UP TO 35-40 KTS FOR BJC. WINDS WILL THEN TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE
BY 00Z/01Z FOR DEN AND APA, WHILE STAYING WESTERLY AT BJC. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG DRAINAGE FLOW WILL LAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER,GENERALLY EXPECT SW
WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH A FEW BURSTS OF WESTERLY WINDS (<15
KTS) AT TIMES. BY MID-MORNING, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME VRB AS A
CYCLONE DEVELOPS, WITH EASTERLY WINDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ216-239.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MAI
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