253
FXUS65 KBOU 072313
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
413 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PLAINS THURSDAY
AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK THAT WE WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS RIDGING ALOFT GETS
PUSHED EAST BY THE TWO INCOMING SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, DESPITE BEING 24
TO 36 HOURS OUT, THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AND LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND ONE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WE EXPECT THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
700-MB CLOSED LOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN RAIN/SNOW
MIX (TRANSITIONING TO SNOW) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, MODEL TRENDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL NNW FLOW SEEPING IN,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE PLAINS,
WHICH WILL INHIBIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE QUESTION IS, HOW FAR WILL
THE DRIER NNW FLOW MAKE IT? THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN
MODELS DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT SOUTHERN
FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE WILL MOST LIKELY RECEIVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING STRONGER DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE NORTH. HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE GET WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM?
THAT QUESTION AGAIN DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE 700-MB LOW, IF WE
GET UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW VS. FAVORABLE ENE FLOW. BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING, ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH, WITH DRIER SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES, WE STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION WILL RECEIVE SNOWFALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS (FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY) AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE (FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS). HAVE OPTED IN
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS, WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4-10 INCHES (LOWER
END IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE FLOW), WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, ADDED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE, WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 5-10
INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF WE CAN
GET STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR URBAN CORRIDOR/DENVER AND EAST
STILL THINK 2-4" (LESS IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS) IS
LIKELY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS (5+")
IF THE INGREDIENTS CAN COME TOGETHER.
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS, EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTER UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY, WITH
FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 10KTS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PACKAGE. CEILINGS
WILL BEGIN TO DROP THIS EVENING, DROPPING BELOW 6000FT BY 10Z
TOMORROW AT KDEN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AROUND 10Z TOMORROW. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KBJC AND KAPA
AROUND 12Z, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AROUND 14Z AT KBJC AND
15Z FOR KAPA. AT KDEN, CIGS WILL DROP THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH CIGS APPROACHING 1000FT BY 15Z. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR CIGS TO DROP NEAR 500FT AT KDEN IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE AREA. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BRING LOWER VISIBILITIES, WITH VALUES AROUND A
QUARTER MILE TO 2 MILES AS THEY PASS OVER THE AIRPORT. CONFIDENCE
IN SNOW IMPACTING THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE
MORNING, WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ036.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ041.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...AP
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