876
FXUS65 KBOU 080547
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT/THURSDAY WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PLAINS THURSDAY
AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COLDER BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WEEK THAT WE WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS RIDGING ALOFT GETS
PUSHED EAST BY THE TWO INCOMING SYSTEMS. HOWEVER, DESPITE BEING 24
TO 36 HOURS OUT, THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AND LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SECOND ONE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WE EXPECT THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
700-MB CLOSED LOW AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN RAIN/SNOW
MIX (TRANSITIONING TO SNOW) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, MODEL TRENDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL NNW FLOW SEEPING IN,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE PLAINS,
WHICH WILL INHIBIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE QUESTION IS, HOW FAR WILL
THE DRIER NNW FLOW MAKE IT? THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN
MODELS DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY, BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT SOUTHERN
FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE WILL MOST LIKELY RECEIVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BATTLING STRONGER DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE NORTH. HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE GET WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM?
THAT QUESTION AGAIN DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE 700-MB LOW, IF WE
GET UNFAVORABLE NNW FLOW VS. FAVORABLE ENE FLOW. BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING, ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD DIMINISH, WITH DRIER SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES, WE STILL THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION WILL RECEIVE SNOWFALL, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS (FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY) AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE (FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS). HAVE OPTED IN
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS, WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4-10 INCHES (LOWER
END IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE FLOW), WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, ADDED A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE, WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 5-10
INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF WE CAN
GET STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW. FOR URBAN CORRIDOR/DENVER AND EAST
STILL THINK 2-4" (LESS IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS) IS
LIKELY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS (5+")
IF THE INGREDIENTS CAN COME TOGETHER.
BEHIND THESE SYSTEMS, EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP IN THE SOUTHWESTER UNITED STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY, WITH
FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP AT DEN, AND A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH A MAJORITY
OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST THURSDAY, WITH A LOT OF GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER
SOLUTIONS. IN GENERAL, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE THREE POTENTIAL
PERIODS OF SNOW; (1) A LIGHT BAND OF STEADIER SNOW THURSDAY
MORNING, (2) A TRANSITION TO MORE "SHOWERY" SNOW DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS, AND (3) A POTENTIAL TRANSITION BACK
TO STEADIER SNOW THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. I SUSPECT A
LARGE PORTION OF THAT TIMEFRAME STAYS DRY (ESPECIALLY AT DEN), AND
IMPACTS TO RUNWAY SURFACES WOULD BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY BY
FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW CHANCES, MVFR TO
IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR COZ036.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR COZ041.
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...HIRIS
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