032
FXUS65 KBOU 082238
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
338 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SNOW
INCREASES IN COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS STILL
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE TONIGHT.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND
ELBERT COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FOR SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU JAN 8 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH DEPARTING EASTERN COLORADO. THE QG ASCENT THAT WAS
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA HAS SHIFTED TO NEUTRAL STABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIMITED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE LEAD TO A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
OF THESE MAY DRIFT OVER THE WESTERN I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL SNOW. WITHOUT QG FORCING ALOFT, THESE
SCATTERED WEAK SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS BECOMING
STRONGER OVER ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL HEAD EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
WILL END UP OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK QG ASCENT TO OUR FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. AROUND
MIDNIGHT TO 3AM TONIGHT, MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
COLD FRONT WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING THROUGH THE I-25
CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE, THIS FRONT WILL
HELP TO DEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE REGARDING SNOW IN THE DENVER METRO TONIGHT, THE THINKING IS
THAT 0.5-2" OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY TO FALL
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METRO. OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND EASTWARD INTO LINCOLN COUNTY, THE UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE QG ASCENT FROM THE PASSING TROUGH
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW. FOR SOUTHERN ELBERT
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS UNCERTAIN BUT 2-6"
IS THE BEST ESTIMATE. IF THAT WERE TO OCCUR, THE STRONG WINDS UP
TO 45 MPH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TOMORROW MORNING, WILL
BLOW THE SNOW AROUND AND COULD CREATE LOW VISIBILITY AND HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THEREFORE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THAT AREA FROM MIDNIGHT TO 11 AM.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OCCURRING ON THE GRAND
JUNCTION RADAR, GENERALLY 2-4" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL FALL BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.
SUBSIDENT FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO THE SNOW. IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND
BREEZY DAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE GOTTEN USED TO IN DENVER THIS
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT. AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE 50S ON SUNDAY
AND SOME 60S ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN TO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO MVFR/IFR WITH WAVES OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS INCLUDING KDEN. PER RADAR, APPEARS
A SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED WAVE IS NOW (18Z) MOVING ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS WITH THE BACK EDGE EXPECTED TO REACH KDEN BY
20-21Z. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE TEMPO LOWER CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO
3/4-1SM IN THE TAFS THROUGH THEN. THEN, WE EXPECT A LITTLE BREAK -
PERHAPS MORE SHOWERY THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. ANYTIME THEREAFTER,
ANOTHER NORTHERLY SURGE SHOULD ARRIVE WHICH MEANS A QUICK SHOT OF
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH NEAR NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES AND
AN EFFICIENT RESPONSE TO ANY FORCING. THUS, WE EXPECT ANOTHER
PERIOD OF HEAVIER/ACCUMULATING SNOW ON RUNWAYS OVERNIGHT. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THIS WOULD BE 05Z-11Z, BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH NOT ONLY TIMING BUT INTENSITY (COULD JUST BE AN
HOUR OR TWO OF HEAVIER SNOW WITH A QUICK 2" OF SNOWFALL).
IT SHOULD BE NOTED WE STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOST ASPECTS
OF THIS TAF, SO NOWCASTING AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF TEMPO/PROB30
GROUPS IS NEEDED TO CONVEY THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.
ON FRIDAY, A STRONGER NORTHERLY SURGE OF DRIER AIR (36014G22KTS) BY
12Z-14Z SHOULD TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT AND LIFT CIGS TO 030 OR
GREATER. THE TAF WILL HAVE CIGS BUMPING TO MVFR BY THEN, WITH VISUAL
LANDING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 18Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034-036-041.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ047.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...20
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