590
FXUS65 KBOU 101610
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
910 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, A GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AREAS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE DEEP SNOW COVER EXISTS, THE WARM UP WILL
TEMPERED.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
FIRST, GOES-E SATELLITE SHOWS A ROBUST SNOW PACK ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH A BRIGHT WHITE, FRESH
SNOWPACK, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP MUCH. WE LOWERED
HIGHS BY 5+ DEG OVER THE SNOWPACK, AND THAT MAY NOT EVEN BE
ENOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES JUST IN THE 30S IN THOSE AREAS.
ELSWEHERE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM AS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM DENVER
NORTH WHERE SNOWPACK IS MUCH LESS. THE OTHER TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY
IS THE WIND. WE BUMPED UP THE NW WINDS ROUGHLY FROM DENVER
NORTHWARD. ACARS AND THE URBAN SKY SOUNDING FROM DENVER SHOW THAT
ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MIXING IS NEEDED TO BRING STRONGER NW
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SO WENT WITH 15G25 MPH FROM DENVER
NORTHWARD, AND INCREASED WINDS MORE IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS, AMOUNTING TO 4-6 MPH UP SUSTAINED
AND 5-7 MPH IN GUSTS OVER WHAT WAS IN THERE PREVIOUSLY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
SOME FLURRIES HAVE LINGERED FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE TODAY. THESE WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND SUNSET AS THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AND IN THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS LIKE GREELEY AND LIMON.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK, COLORADO WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DUE TO
SUBSIDENT FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH DAY BUT THERE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH WIND EVENTS. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE
OVER COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT TROUGH MAY BRING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE THURSDAY TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND COULD ALLOW COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRAINAGE WINDS
ARE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO THE WEST TO WNW THROUGH THE MORNING. HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT ON AGREEMENT OF GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS MIXING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MOS GUIDANCE HOLDING ONTO
THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY AT KDEN, LEANING
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE (~20%) WE SEE NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-23Z, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
KTS POSSIBLE. HAVE NUDGED WINDS TO A SLIGHT WNW AT 21Z FOR KDEN
AND 19Z AT APA (MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR APA), BUT KDEN MAY HOLD
ONTO A MORE SW/W COMPONENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BETWEEN 3-4Z FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AT KBJC, WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SIMILAR
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE AS THE OTHER TAF SITES
REGARDING N WINDS MIXING THEIR WAY DOWN FROM ALOFT. MOS HOLDS
ONTO WSW TO W WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH INCREASING SPEEDS
AFTER 17Z AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22-23Z.
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WESTERLY WINDS, HAVE GONE WITH THIS
SCENARIO FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SCHLATTER
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...9
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