939
FXUS65 KBOU 101733
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1033 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, A GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AREAS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE DEEP SNOW COVER EXISTS, THE WARM UP WILL
TEMPERED.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST IS ON TRACK. JUST UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.
FIRST, GOES-E SATELLITE SHOWS A ROBUST SNOW PACK ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY. WITH A BRIGHT WHITE, FRESH
SNOWPACK, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UP MUCH. WE LOWERED
HIGHS BY 5+ DEG OVER THE SNOWPACK, AND THAT MAY NOT EVEN BE
ENOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES JUST IN THE 30S IN THOSE AREAS.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM AS FORECAST INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM DENVER
NORTH WHERE SNOWPACK IS MUCH LESS. THE OTHER TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY
IS THE WIND. WE BUMPED UP THE NW WINDS ROUGHLY FROM DENVER
NORTHWARD. ACARS AND THE URBAN SKY SOUNDING FROM DENVER SHOW THAT
ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MIXING IS NEEDED TO BRING STRONGER NW
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SO WENT WITH 15G25 MPH FROM DENVER
NORTHWARD, AND INCREASED WINDS MORE IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS, AMOUNTING TO 4-6 MPH UP SUSTAINED
AND 5-7 MPH IN GUSTS OVER WHAT WAS IN THERE PREVIOUSLY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
SOME FLURRIES HAVE LINGERED FOR QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE TODAY. THESE WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND SUNSET AS THE DAYTIME HEATING ENDS. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS ON THE PALMER DIVIDE AND IN THE USUAL
COLD SPOTS LIKE GREELEY AND LIMON.
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK, COLORADO WILL BE ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER DUE TO
SUBSIDENT FLOW. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EACH DAY BUT THERE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH WIND EVENTS. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE
OVER COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT TROUGH MAY BRING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE THURSDAY TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND COULD ALLOW COLDER TEMPERATURES TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THE WINDS ARE A BIT
TRICKY TODAY. ACARS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW
INVERSION NEAR DEN. IF KDEN WARMED TO 33 OR 34 DEGREES, THEN WE
EXPECT NW WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS IT STANDS NOW, THEY
ARE SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET OFF THE DECK. THUS, GOING WITH A
TRANSITION TO NW WINDS BY 1830Z AND WITH CONTINUED MIXING AS
TEMPERATURES REACH 40+ DEGREES, NNW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 20 KT AFTER 21Z. THE NNW WINDS SHOULD NOT LAST
LONG, AS DECOUPLING WILL REDUCE THEM AFTER 01Z. EXPECT SSW
DRAINAGE WINDS 10-14 KTS ALL NIGHT LONG. ON SUNDAY, WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND UNDER 10 KTS AFTER 19Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON AT BJC AND APA, AND THE
DIRECTION IS UNCERTAIN. WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS NORTH UNDER 10 KTS
AT APA AFTER 20Z UNTIL GOING BACK TO DRAINAGE AFTER 04Z. AT BJC,
MORE THAN LIKELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALL AFTERNOON BUT HRRR/RRFS
WANT TO GO WITH ENE, AND REGARDLESS THE SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A PUSH OF WNW WIND COMING OFF THE FOOTHILLS TO
BJC AFTER 00/01Z, FOR NOW JUST THINKING 28012G20KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE AFTER 06/07Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SCHLATTER
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...SCHLATTER
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