552
FXUS65 KBOU 271740
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1040 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
- A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS MAY BACKDOOR INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
MAINLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THRU TUE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, EXCEPT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
INVERSIONS WILL BE HARD TO BREAK DUE TO SNOW COVER. THUS HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT'S LOWS
AND TUESDAY'S HIGHS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS BOTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT,
HOWEVER, SPEEDS WILL NOT MEET HIGH WIND CRITERIA.
ON WED, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WED NIGHT INTO THU.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WED. ONCE AGAIN, SNOW COVER MAY ALTER
HIGHS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE
SOUTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR MAINLY
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MTNS. ACROSS THE PLAINS IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
ON FRI, NNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. CROSS-SECTIONS DON'T SHOW MUCH MOISTURE IN THE MTNS SO SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE LOW. ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW
A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR BACKDOORING ACROSS MUCH OF NERN CO WHILE
THE GFS ISN'T AS STRONG WITH THIS AIRMASS. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE
COLDEST AIR OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS BUT IT COULD EASILY SPREAD
MUCH FURTHER WEST. MEANWHILE, THERE WILL BE A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
JET OVER NERN CO AS WELL. THUS CAN'T RULE OUT A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET.
ON SAT, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE NW. THE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS IS FCST TO ERODE BY THE ECMWF WHILE THE GFS HAS IT REMAINING
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION
AND HAVE IT ERODING AS THE ECWMF SHOWS. ON SUN, BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS HAVE DRY NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS ARE STARTING LIGHT WESTERLY, AND SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOME MIXING OCCURS WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TURN MORE W-NW
THROUGH 21Z-22Z. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME VRB WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 00Z-01Z AND A SLOWER RETURN TO NORMAL
SSW WINDS. THE LATEST INDICATIONS THIS WOULD OCCUR 04Z-06Z AND
THEN HOLD THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. AFTER THAT, WINDS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN
SO COULD GO JUST WSW-LIGHT N AFTER 18Z, BUT A REASONABLE (50%
CHANCE) OF GOING VRB.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...20
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