307
FXUS65 KBOU 281800
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1100 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND MILD TODAY, BUT RATHER THICK MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
- LIGHT SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MIDDAY, WITH GENERALLY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS MAY BACKDOOR INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO ON
FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
- MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM IS WORKING ONTO THE WEST
COAST THIS EVENING, AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
AXIS. THAT MEANS ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES COLORADO. NONETHELESS, AT LEAST THERE WILL BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH SUFFICIENT OROGRAPHICS AND
MODEST LAPSE RATES. IT SHOULD START VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING WEDNESDAY IN THE PARK RANGE, AND SPREAD TO THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS AND SUMMIT COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THEN SNOW DIMINISHES THURSDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY LIGHT SINCE MOISTURE IS LACKING, BUT THINKING 1-4" IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR THE MOUNTAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, WITH THE
HIGHER END IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF CO MOUNTAINS.
MILD TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THE PLAINS, BUT WE DO EXPECT A PRETTY HEALTHY DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT FROM MAX
WARMUP POTENTIAL, BUT THEY SHOULD STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
REACH THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH THE COOLER SPOTS IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WHERE INVERSIONS WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME DUE TO THE
CLOUDS. FOR THURSDAY, THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT COOLING EXPECTED
BEHIND THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE.
FOR FRIDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT MOST OF THE DAY (EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST
CORNER) SHOULD STILL BE MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. THE WEAK FRONT WILL OFFER UP SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES, BUT MOSTLY ON THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. THAT FRONT IS QUITE SHALLOW SO MOST MODELS AGREE THE
COOLING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNDER A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. WE DO SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A TROUGH ARRIVES, BUT THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THAT EVOLVES. THUS, WE'LL
STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF MODEL GUIDANCE WITH JUST SLIGHT COOLING AND
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
03Z-12Z MEANS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IMC. OVERALL, WE EXPECT CEILINGS
TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 7,000 FT AGL IN THAT TIME FRAME, BUT 20%
CHANCE THEY DROP TO 6,000 FEET WITH SOME VIRGA OR A BRIEF FLURRY
IN THE AIR. CEILINGS THEN BREAK FOR THURSDAY.
REGARDING WINDS, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY S OR SW THROUGH ABOUT
19Z-20Z, AND THEN TURN MORE WSW-NNW THROUGH 22Z. HOWEVER, THERE
IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THERE DUE TO WEAK MOUNTAIN
WAVE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE MIXING, BUT AT
THE SAME TIME A SOUTHWARD SLOSH OF THE COLD POOL NORTH OF KDEN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS SETUP. THUS, WE'LL ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE
CURRENT WIND TRENDS IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THIS. WINDS OVERNIGHT
HAVE A CHANCE TO GO VRB, ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
W/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL, AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORMAL DRAINAGE SSW
STILL LIKELY (60% CHANCE) AS CLOUDS BREAK BEFORE DAYBREAK. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE W-NW AGAIN THURSDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE
AND SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MIXING, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20+ KTS
POSSIBLE IF WE FULLY MIX - MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER 19-20Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
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