643
FXUS65 KBOU 292145
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
245 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS BACKDOORS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
FRIDAY, WITH A BRIEF CHILL AND CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THERE WILL BE A SHALLOW LAYER OF TRAPPED MOISTURE,
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK WARMUP WITH GENERALLY SHALLOW
INVERSIONS, BUT THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE DAY WILL BE INTRUSION OF A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST TO LAST WEEKEND'S ARCTIC COLD,
WE'LL BE ON THE VERY WESTERN EXTENT AND THUS ONLY LOOK FOR A BRIEF
COLD STRETCH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO WORK BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS,
OFFERING UP A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (DUSTING TO 1") OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND JUST A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A LOW CHANCE (20%) OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, WE WERE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS KNOWING SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSIONS CAN BE
SLOWER TO MIX OUT, ESPECIALLY IF WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL SUPPORT STRONG RIDGING AND
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 60F LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND PLAINS.
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE'S A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, THE CHANCES OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE LOW (<20%). WE'LL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW,
BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THAT TROUGH'S DISTURBANCE, IT DOES LOOK
LIKE ANOTHER RETURN OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD START BY THURSDAY AND LIKELY EXTEND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS YET ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING
TO INCREASE AS INVERSIONS BREAK PER ACARS DATA, WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTS TO ~25 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WINDS
SHOULD THEN RELAX BY 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING, BUT BE SLOW TO TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL SSW WIND DUE
TO THE EXISTING GRADIENT. THUS, WE'LL HAVE LIGHTER WNW WINDS
FORECAST BY 00Z, WITH A TRANSITION TO SW EXPECTED 04Z-07Z. THOSE
WINDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FRIDAY. KBJC COULD SEE
A LITTLE MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT FOR OCCASIONAL W GUSTS TO
20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT (>60% PROBABILITY).
AFTER 18Z, WINDS MAY BECOME VRB FOR A COUPLE HOURS OR NW (EQUAL
50/50 PROBABILITIES ON EITHER), BUT THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
EITHER DIURNAL WINDS OR EARLY ARRIVAL OF SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT TO
PUSH WINDS MORE ENE ~10 KTS TOWARD 21Z FRIDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page