261
FXUS65 KBOU 300604
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1104 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS BACKDOORS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
FRIDAY, WITH A BRIEF CHILL AND CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY BUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THERE WILL BE A SHALLOW LAYER OF TRAPPED MOISTURE,
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK WARMUP WITH GENERALLY SHALLOW
INVERSIONS, BUT THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE DAY WILL BE INTRUSION OF A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST TO LAST WEEKEND'S ARCTIC COLD,
WE'LL BE ON THE VERY WESTERN EXTENT AND THUS ONLY LOOK FOR A BRIEF
COLD STRETCH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO WORK BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS,
OFFERING UP A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (DUSTING TO 1") OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND JUST A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A LOW CHANCE (20%) OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, WE WERE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS KNOWING SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSIONS CAN BE
SLOWER TO MIX OUT, ESPECIALLY IF WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL SUPPORT STRONG RIDGING AND
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 60F LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND PLAINS.
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE'S A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, THE CHANCES OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE LOW (<20%). WE'LL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW,
BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THAT TROUGH'S DISTURBANCE, IT DOES LOOK
LIKE ANOTHER RETURN OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD START BY THURSDAY AND LIKELY EXTEND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS YET ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED AND WILL
CONTINUE FOR KDEN AND KAPA THROUGH ~15Z, BEFORE A TRANSITION TO
W AND THEN NW WINDS THROUGH 19Z. KBJC IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
UNDER WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY (21-22Z), A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF NE WINDS AT LEAST TO AREAS EAST OF I-25 (I.E.
KDEN/KAPA), WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN ITS ABILITY TO EXTEND FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT KBJC. EITHER WAY, WIND DIRECTION AT KBJC
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY VARIABLE PAST ~23-00Z. WINDS WILL
RETURN TO DRAINAGE PATTERNS IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT SCT TO AT TIMES BKN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS PRECEDING AND FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT, WITH BASES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 080.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...BRQ
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