301
FXUS65 KBOU 301747
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WEAK FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL USHER IN SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST THU JAN 29 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 35 MPH AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
THE MOUNTAINS, THERE WILL BE A SHALLOW LAYER OF TRAPPED MOISTURE,
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A PRETTY QUICK WARMUP WITH GENERALLY SHALLOW
INVERSIONS, BUT THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE DAY WILL BE INTRUSION OF A
SHALLOW COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST TO LAST WEEKEND'S ARCTIC COLD,
WE'LL BE ON THE VERY WESTERN EXTENT AND THUS ONLY LOOK FOR A BRIEF
COLD STRETCH FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO WORK BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS,
OFFERING UP A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (DUSTING TO 1") OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND JUST A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY, EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND A LOW CHANCE (20%) OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS ALL OF
THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, WE WERE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS KNOWING SHALLOW BUT STRONG INVERSIONS CAN BE
SLOWER TO MIX OUT, ESPECIALLY IF WE STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS STILL SUPPORT STRONG RIDGING AND
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES OF 60F LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND PLAINS.
THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS STILL SLATED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE'S A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, THE CHANCES OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARE QUITE LOW (<20%). WE'LL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW,
BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT.
DESPITE UNCERTAINTY IN THAT TROUGH'S DISTURBANCE, IT DOES LOOK
LIKE ANOTHER RETURN OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD START BY THURSDAY AND LIKELY EXTEND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS YET ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
WIND HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. A WEAK TURN OR SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED 23Z TO 00Z AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CRAWLS WESTWARD. BEHIND THIS WEAK PUSH, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z AND THEN A TYPICAL SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE DIRECTION AROUND 06Z. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS (BELOW 2000 FEET) ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, BUT STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DENVER AREA,
INCLUDING DEN. THERE'S A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE LOW CLOUDS END UP
FAR ENOUGH WEST AND THAT A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS AND PULLS THEM
SOUTHWARD INTO DEN. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THE BEST TIME FRAME
WOULD BE 06-12Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...12
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