641
FXUS65 KBOU 302335
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
435 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING
USHERING IN SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS SLOWLY CRAWLING WESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE 1PM TEMPERATURE AT JULESBURG WAS 23F
DEGREES AND JUST TO THE WEST ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, FORT
MORGAN WAS 48F DEGREES. THIS ARCTIC AIR KEEPS CREEPING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWARD INTO
WYOMING AND MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BECAUSE OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH. SO IF THE ARCTIC AIR MAKES IT NEAR OR INTO THE
DENVER AREA, IT WILL BE QUICKLY SCOURED OUT BY THE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO (LOVELAND/FORT COLLINS AREA) DUE TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND FARTHER FROM THE SOUTHERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS. THERE'S ALSO A
CHANCE A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS, HELPING TO KEEP/PULL THE ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA. ON SATURDAY,
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP SPREAD
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SWEEP ANY REMAINING ARCTIC
AIR OUT OF THE STATE. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL CHANCES GO, A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL SEE SLIGHT
DRYING THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
ENDING MOST LOCATIONS. THEN MOUNTAIN TOP MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LIGHT SNOWFALL INCREASES, DUE TO THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT
WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATIONS HERE
WILL ALSO BE VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH WITH NO TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENS THE RIDGING. THE TROUGH AND ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE WELL TOO FAR NORTH OF
COLORADO TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. WE MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. MONDAY COULD END UP THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES, MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED,
BETWEEN NO SNOWFALL OR LIGHT SNOWFALL (OR LIGHT RAIN) WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW (OR
RAIN) LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S EACH DAY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN, SPANNING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. OVER BAJA MEXICO, A CLOSE LOW WILL DEEPEN, CREATING A REX
BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
OVER COLORADO, LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY IF TUESDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED EXITING
THE AREA. AFTER THIS, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MID 50S TO 60S POSSIBLE FOR BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY 01Z WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY. BETWEEN 02Z AND 03Z WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH BY 05Z. BY 08Z WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF LIFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEVELOPING AT BJC AND DIA AFTER 08Z WHICH
MAY LINGER THRU 12Z. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. AT THIS TIME DON'T EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS AND FOG
TO AFFECT APA.
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SAT SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY QUICKLY
IMPROVE AS SFC WINDS BECOME SW OR SSW. BY 18Z WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NW AND THEN NNW BY 21Z. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES BY 21Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...RPK
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