392
FXUS65 KBOU 310528
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1028 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- A WEAK FRONT CONTINUED TO BACK WESTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING
USHERING IN SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
TONIGHT AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PLAINS.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS SLOWLY CRAWLING WESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE 1PM TEMPERATURE AT JULESBURG WAS 23F
DEGREES AND JUST TO THE WEST ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, FORT
MORGAN WAS 48F DEGREES. THIS ARCTIC AIR KEEPS CREEPING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWARD INTO
WYOMING AND MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BECAUSE OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH. SO IF THE ARCTIC AIR MAKES IT NEAR OR INTO THE
DENVER AREA, IT WILL BE QUICKLY SCOURED OUT BY THE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO (LOVELAND/FORT COLLINS AREA) DUE TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND FARTHER FROM THE SOUTHERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS. THERE'S ALSO A
CHANCE A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS, HELPING TO KEEP/PULL THE ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA. ON SATURDAY,
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP SPREAD
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SWEEP ANY REMAINING ARCTIC
AIR OUT OF THE STATE. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL CHANCES GO, A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL SEE SLIGHT
DRYING THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
ENDING MOST LOCATIONS. THEN MOUNTAIN TOP MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LIGHT SNOWFALL INCREASES, DUE TO THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT
WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATIONS HERE
WILL ALSO BE VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH WITH NO TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENS THE RIDGING. THE TROUGH AND ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE WELL TOO FAR NORTH OF
COLORADO TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. WE MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. MONDAY COULD END UP THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES, MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED,
BETWEEN NO SNOWFALL OR LIGHT SNOWFALL (OR LIGHT RAIN) WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW (OR
RAIN) LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S EACH DAY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN, SPANNING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. OVER BAJA MEXICO, A CLOSE LOW WILL DEEPEN, CREATING A REX
BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
OVER COLORADO, LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY IF TUESDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED EXITING
THE AREA. AFTER THIS, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MID 50S TO 60S POSSIBLE FOR BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
LOW STRATUS WITH BASES 004-008 IS COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME SOUTHWARD
SPREAD AT THIS HOUR UNDER W/NW WINDS. THE WIND CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR KDEN BUT HAS MIGRATED SLIGHTLY SE-WARD, AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DO SO. AS SUCH, FAVORING A PERIOD OF W TO POSSIBLY NW
FLOW IN THE COMING HOURS FOR KDEN/KBJC, THAT WOULD SUGGEST
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FG/BR AND 1/4-2SM VIS AS CIGS 003-005
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ISN'T OVERLY HIGH FOR THE VISIBILITY
CONSTRAINTS (~60%), BUT IS HIGHER FOR TIMING OF POSSIBLE IMPACTS
(GENERALLY 08-12Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER WINDOW
07-13Z, MAINLY FOR KBJC). RETURN OF DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD RESULT
IN QUICK CLEARING AFTER 12-13Z ACROSS THE DENVER METRO, WITH
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
DAYTIME WINDS SATURDAY WILL SEE A QUICK SWITCH TO ENHANCED NW FLOW
BETWEEN 17-19Z, WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDING 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A RETURN TO
TYPICAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS LATER IN THE EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...BRQ
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