223
FXUS65 KBOU 311138
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
438 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG, LOCALLY DENSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR, WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING TODAY.
- SAVE FOR LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS, WE'LL BE TURNING WARMER AND
DRIER. REMAINING DRY AND MILD THROUGH MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE CYCLONIC WIND PATTERN OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED FOR EXPANSION OF
LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. THERE ARE POCKETS OF DENSER FOG
WITH VISIBILITY 1/8-1/4 MILE, ALTHOUGH THESE REMAIN RATHER
LOCALIZED TO THE EASTERN DENVER METRO, WITH VISIBILITY BEING MORE
IN FLUX IN OTHER AREAS. THERE MAY BE CAUSE FOR A BRIEF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IF TRENDS WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY, HOWEVER THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT ANY LINGERING NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT NORTH OF
DENVER WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY NEAR SUNRISE AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WINDS OUT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RELATIVELY FAST EROSION OF
THE FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 6-8 AM MT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS DISCUSSED BELOW. WINDS
TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 60-70 MPH AT THEIR PEAK FOR THE MORE WIND-PRONE
LEEWARD SLOPES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS SLOWLY CRAWLING WESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE 1PM TEMPERATURE AT JULESBURG WAS 23F
DEGREES AND JUST TO THE WEST ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, FORT
MORGAN WAS 48F DEGREES. THIS ARCTIC AIR KEEPS CREEPING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWARD INTO
WYOMING AND MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BECAUSE OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH. SO IF THE ARCTIC AIR MAKES IT NEAR OR INTO THE
DENVER AREA, IT WILL BE QUICKLY SCOURED OUT BY THE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO (LOVELAND/FORT COLLINS AREA) DUE TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND FARTHER FROM THE SOUTHERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS. THERE'S ALSO A
CHANCE A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS, HELPING TO KEEP/PULL THE ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA. ON SATURDAY,
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP SPREAD
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SWEEP ANY REMAINING ARCTIC
AIR OUT OF THE STATE. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL CHANCES GO, A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL SEE SLIGHT
DRYING THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
ENDING MOST LOCATIONS. THEN MOUNTAIN TOP MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LIGHT SNOWFALL INCREASES, DUE TO THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT
WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATIONS HERE
WILL ALSO BE VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH WITH NO TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENS THE RIDGING. THE TROUGH AND ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE WELL TOO FAR NORTH OF
COLORADO TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. WE MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. MONDAY COULD END UP THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES, MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED,
BETWEEN NO SNOWFALL OR LIGHT SNOWFALL (OR LIGHT RAIN) WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW (OR
RAIN) LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S EACH DAY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN, SPANNING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. OVER BAJA MEXICO, A CLOSE LOW WILL DEEPEN, CREATING A REX
BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
OVER COLORADO, LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY IF TUESDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED EXITING
THE AREA. AFTER THIS, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MID 50S TO 60S POSSIBLE FOR BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE WORST OF THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING RESTRICTIONS HAS PASSED,
WITH S/SW WINDS GAINING PROMINENCE AT THIS HOUR, AND CURRENTLY
EXTENDING TO JUST AROUND THE WELD/ADAMS COUNTY LINE. SEE LITTLE
REASON FOR ANY W OR N COMPONENT TO RETURN IN ANY CAPACITY PRIOR TO
DAYTIME MIXING, SO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES A STEADY LIFTING OF
VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13-14Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
RATHER QUICKLY, AND VFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SLIGHTLY EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTIZED FOR KBJC AND KDEN IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD.
PAST 14Z THIS MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
ALL TERMINALS, WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHMENT OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRENGTHENING NW FLOW IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
ONCE THIS INVERSION IS ERODED (~17Z, OR 18Z AT THE LATEST), THESE
BREEZIER WINDS WITH DIRECTION 300-340 WILL MIX DOWN QUICKLY AND
EFFICIENTLY. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF GUSTS INTO THE MID 20 KT
RANGE AS WE ENTER THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SPEEDS TO REDUCE
JUST AS QUICKLY BETWEEN 23-01Z, WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER AND MORE
VRB FLOW GIVING WAY TO TYPICAL SSW DRAINAGE PATTERNS LATER THIS
EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BRQ
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...BRQ
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