564
FXUS65 KBOU 311747
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1047 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS SEEN IN OUR FUTURE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
GOES-16 SATELLITE SHOWS RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR. THE FOG/STRATUS IS ALL BUT GONE NOW.
LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO WHERE
ABOUT AN INCH FELL THIS MORNING. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE THE NORM
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. UPDATED POP/TEMPS JUST A
LITTLE TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS. IN THE MOUNTAINS, WEBCAMS AND RADAR
SHOW THE SNOW HAS ENDED UP THERE. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK ACROSS OUR
AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 235 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE CYCLONIC WIND PATTERN OVERNIGHT HAS ALLOWED FOR EXPANSION OF
LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. THERE ARE POCKETS OF DENSER FOG
WITH VISIBILITY 1/8-1/4 MILE, ALTHOUGH THESE REMAIN RATHER
LOCALIZED TO THE EASTERN DENVER METRO, WITH VISIBILITY BEING MORE
IN FLUX IN OTHER AREAS. THERE MAY BE CAUSE FOR A BRIEF DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IF TRENDS WORSEN SIGNIFICANTLY, HOWEVER THE EXPECTATION
IS THAT ANY LINGERING NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT NORTH OF
DENVER WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY NEAR SUNRISE AS SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WINDS OUT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RELATIVELY FAST EROSION OF
THE FOG AND STRATUS BETWEEN 6-8 AM MT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS DISCUSSED BELOW. WINDS
TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS OUR HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 60-70 MPH AT THEIR PEAK FOR THE MORE WIND-PRONE
LEEWARD SLOPES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS SLOWLY CRAWLING WESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE 1PM TEMPERATURE AT JULESBURG WAS 23F
DEGREES AND JUST TO THE WEST ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, FORT
MORGAN WAS 48F DEGREES. THIS ARCTIC AIR KEEPS CREEPING WESTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWARD INTO
WYOMING AND MONTANA. SURFACE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY BECAUSE OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH. SO IF THE ARCTIC AIR MAKES IT NEAR OR INTO THE
DENVER AREA, IT WILL BE QUICKLY SCOURED OUT BY THE SOUTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVER NORTHERN
COLORADO (LOVELAND/FORT COLLINS AREA) DUE TO THE LOWER ELEVATION
AND FARTHER FROM THE SOUTHERLY DOWN SLOPE WINDS. THERE'S ALSO A
CHANCE A DENVER CYCLONE FORMS, HELPING TO KEEP/PULL THE ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DENVER AREA. ON SATURDAY,
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSING TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL HELP SPREAD
NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND SWEEP ANY REMAINING ARCTIC
AIR OUT OF THE STATE. THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL CHANCES GO, A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE WILL SEE SLIGHT
DRYING THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
ENDING MOST LOCATIONS. THEN MOUNTAIN TOP MOISTURE INCREASES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LIGHT SNOWFALL INCREASES, DUE TO THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT
WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE. FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO NEAR THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. ACCUMULATIONS HERE
WILL ALSO BE VERY LIGHT, LESS THAN AN INCH WITH NO TRAVEL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS
QUICKLY REPLACED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENS THE RIDGING. THE TROUGH AND ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE WELL TOO FAR NORTH OF
COLORADO TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. WE MAY SEE AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S. MONDAY COULD END UP THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY EVENING AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
TRAVELING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES, MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MIXED,
BETWEEN NO SNOWFALL OR LIGHT SNOWFALL (OR LIGHT RAIN) WITH THIS
SYSTEM. GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW (OR
RAIN) LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
COOL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S EACH DAY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH INTENSIFIES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN, SPANNING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. OVER BAJA MEXICO, A CLOSE LOW WILL DEEPEN, CREATING A REX
BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD.
OVER COLORADO, LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY IF TUESDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY DELAYED EXITING
THE AREA. AFTER THIS, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MID 50S TO 60S POSSIBLE FOR BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND THE FOG HAS BEEN CLEARED OUT FROM ANYWHERE
NEAR DEN. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL THREE AIRPORTS FROM MIDDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 25 KTS AT DEN, AND GET CLOSE TO
THAT AT BJC AND APA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 00Z WITH
DECOUPLING, THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO DRAINAGE AFTER 04/05Z. WINDS
WILL BE SSW AT UNDER 10 KTS AT APA AND DEN, AND 4-6 KT AT BJC OUT
OF THE WSW. TOMORROW, WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AFTER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE MORNING, BY
MIDDAY THEY SHOULD TRANSITION TO NORTHERLY, MAYBE NORTHEAST, BUT
REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SCHLATTER
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...SCHLATTER
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