848
FXUS65 KBOU 020000
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
500 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT CHANCE (20-40%) OF SNOW FOR THE AREA, MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE, IS LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT.
- WARM AND DRY LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND (THU-SUN).
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION BROUGHT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE'LL
SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH CLOUDS
AND MILD AIRMASS, NOT SURPRISING WE'LL SEE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT
LOWS. FOR MONDAY, HIGH CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. A WEAK
COLD (MORE LIKE COOL) FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10F
DEGREES COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL A
LITTLE MORE UNDER THIS PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE AND A
JET PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET
WILL PRODUCE LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS
THIS SYSTEM TRAVELS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH AMERICAN
ROCKIES. ENSEMBLES ARE ABOUT 50/50 IF THE DENVER AREA SEES
SNOWFALL OR NOT. THE HALF THAT SHOWS SNOW, ALL KEEP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
ALSO ADD TO THE LIFT. LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES COULD LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN, SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 700MB START OFF -7 TO
-11C WEDNESDAY, BUT WARM THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AGAIN WITH MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, A STRONG BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL
HIGH THAT'S BEEN TO OUR WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. LARGE RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. MODELS TEND TO
SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDER CUTTING OR PASSING THROUGH THE
RIDGE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS, BUT STILL NO PRECIPITATION. THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
GEFS ALL SHOW THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY STAYING DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DENVER AREA
TAF SITES TODAY. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
PUSH ACROSS KDEN AT THIS TIME THOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO TRANSITION TOWARDS THE SOUTH VIA A
SOUTHEASTERLY ROTATION AT KDEN/KAPA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
KBJC HOLDING ONTO A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AT KDEN/KAPA BETWEEN 3-5Z
AND PICK UP A FEW KTS AS DRAINAGE SETTLES IN AT KDEN (10-12 KTS).
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 16-17Z MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE WITH WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN
15-25 KTS WHILE THE FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND BECOME EASTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...9
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