178
FXUS65 KBOU 230537
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1037 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER BIG WARM-UP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND FOOTHILLS ON
TUESDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS MID-WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE PLAINS THIS COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A BIG
CONCERN THIS WEEK WILL BE THE HIGH WIND POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG WINDS AT RIDGE TOP AND LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE TO
DEVELOP. THE INGREDIENTS THAT WILL HELP THE MOUNTAIN WAVE
DEVELOPMENT: MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGE TOP WINDS OUT OF THE WNW
AROUND 70 TO 85KTS ON TUESDAY (85KTS IS ALMOST 100MPH). SANGSTER
GIVES US A GJT TO DEN MSL DIFFERENCE AROUND 13 TO 14MB IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN TOP LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY AROUND 4 TO 6
C/KM. THE INGREDIENTS THAT ARE A LITTLE MORE BORDERLINE: A FEW
MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STABLE LAYER AROUND 600
TO 500MB, HOWEVER THE INVERSION/STABLE LAYER DOESN'T LOOK SUPER
GREAT FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE. BUT MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE THIS FAR
OUT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION (SO I TAKE
THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT). QG SUBSIDENCE IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE OF
THINGS, HOWEVER WE WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET, GIVING US SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE. FINALLY, THERE
IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CRITICAL LAYER, BUT WIND SHEAR ABOVE MOUNTAIN
TOP DOES LOOK WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
AMPLIFICATION. IN SUMMARY, CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR VERY
STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
WAVE ENHANCEMENT TO PUSH STRONG WINDS EAST DOWN THE SLOPE. THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS IS THE MOST
UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. HOPEFULLY WE'LL START TO GET A
BETTER IDEA OF THE EASTWARD PUSH AS THE HIGH RES MODELS COME IN
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN
FOOTHILLS. BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADD ADDITIONAL ZONES WITH FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. NOW FOR THE WINDS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE 700MB JET LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR THE CO/WY/NE
BORDER ON TUESDAY. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, CREATING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 50MPH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(<30%) THAT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HAVE GUSTS EXCEEDING 58MPH ON
TUESDAY (WHICH IS THE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR THE PLAINS).
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH A DECREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AN INCREASE FOR WINDS IN MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WE'LL SEE THE RETURN OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY, MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WE WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS ARE SHOWING 700MB
WINDS AROUND 50 TO 75KTS OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE, LEADING TO
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE (40%
TO 80%) THAT AREAS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF I-76 WILL SEE GUSTS AT
OR ABOVE 58MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS
WILL REMAIN VERY BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 TO 65MPH.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH
DECENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. SNOW COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TRYING TO BRING SNOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PLAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
OUR PLAINS DRY.
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOUNTAINS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HIGH WIND PRODUCTS FOR THESE DAYS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG WINDS THIS
WEEK AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN THE PLAINS, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE
MULTIPLE DAYS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LUCKILY, RIGHT NOW, THE
STRONGEST WINDS TEND TO OVERLAP WITH THE "HIGHER" RHS IN OUR AREA
(STILL NOT HIGH, JUST NOT THE LOWEST IN THE AREA). THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS FRIDAY, WHERE MUCH OF THE AREA IS BELOW 15% RH, WITH BREEZY
WINDS PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY
BE NEEDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRAINAGE WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD TURN TO A WEAK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO DRAINAGE AGAIN MONDAY
EVENING. NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ033>035.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...HIRIS
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