135
FXUS65 KBOU 240734
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1234 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK (FRIDAY).
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
IT WILL BE WINDY AND WARM ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY, WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS, ELEVATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 7,000 FEET, AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REALLY RAMP UP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AS A MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPS WITH INCREASING CROSS-BARRIER FLOW.
MODELS HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE STRONGEST WINDS STARTING
OUT AT THE RIDGETOPS, THEN GRADUALLY MIGRATING DOWN THE LEE OF THE
FRONT RANGE INTO AREAS DOWN TO AROUND 7,000 FEET (THINK OUR TYPICAL
WINDY SPOTS LIKE JAMESTOWN, COAL CREEK CANYON, AND BUCKEYE) BY LATE
MORNING. WEST WINDS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80-85 MPH IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WHILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000
FEET, THERE WILL LIKELY BE FINGERS OF STRONGER WINDS (35-45 MPH)
THAT DO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THAT WILL COINCIDE
WITH LOW RH VALUES (10-15%), LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK UP TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COME WITHIN
REACH OF RECORD VALUES (CURRENT DIA RECORD IS 71F, CURRENT
FORECAST TEMP IS 69F), WHICH GIVES US A FAIR SHOT AT TYING THE
CURRENT RECORD IF THINGS WARM SLIGHTLY MORE THAN EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE LETTER W, FOR WINDY, WARM,
AND WINTER WEATHER. A PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF NEW SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF SUMMIT COUNTY,
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR NEW SNOWFALL
TOTALS BETWEEN 5-12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE FLOW REGIME FOR THE PARK RANGE, A WINTER STORM WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WHERE HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 8 AND 18
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG
WINDS AROUND 55 TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE, BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES, MAKING FOR VERY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL DESPITE SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT. BE
PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IF HEADING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN, WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS, AS
A 75-80 KT, 500 MB JET DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WYOMING BORDER. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WHERE 40 TO 55 MPH
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LIGHTER GUSTS (35-45 MPH) FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE TO JUST NORTH OF DIA. IT'S LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAKE IT OFF THE MOUNTAINS THAT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 20% (20- 25%) WHERE WINDS STRONGEST,
HOWEVER, IF RH WERE TO DROP EVEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT IS FORECAST,
CONDITIONS WOULD QUICKLY REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, SO WILL STILL
KEEP ON EYE ON THIS TO SEE HOW HI-RES MODELS HANDLE TOMORROW'S
CONDITIONS TO SEE IF ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS QG FIELDS
SHOW SOME WEAK UPWARDS MOTION AND A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE
LIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE, WHERE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BRING SOME UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS.
WARM, WINDY, AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. DESPITE WIND SPEEDS BEING LIGHTER THAN WEDNESDAY, RH
LOOKS TO DROP TO 15% OR LOWER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS
BOTH AFTERNOONS, WHICH WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. LESS WIND
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND
THAT SHOULD EASE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
DAYS!
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF WESTERLY PUFF OF WIND AT
BJC BUT OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO GUSTIER WNW WINDS AS EARLY AS 18Z TUESDAY AS DEEPER
MIXING DEVELOPS. BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN WIND PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST
GENERALLY 20-25KT GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS LARGELY
SUPPORTED BY DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT AND SOME STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
THE BEST CHANCE OF A >30KT GUST WOULD BE AT BJC. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z WITH A RETURN TO DRAINAGE BY LATE TUESDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS,
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH POSSIBLE DOWN TO ELEVATIONS AROUND
7,000 FEET. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-25% IN AREAS WHERE
WINDS ARE STRONGEST (7,500-8,500 FEET IN ELEVATION), WHILE LOWER
RH VALUES, AS LOW AS 10% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS, WHERE CHANNELS OF WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 35-45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THE RFW HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
NOW INCLUDE LOGAN COUNTY WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH RH VALUES
IMPROVING OVER TUESDAY'S WITH INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ENTERING
THE REGION, RH WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-25% WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BETWEEN 40-55 MPH (GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF US-34 ACROSS THE PLAINS), THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS, NO
FIRE HIGHLIGHTS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
WITH CONTINUED WARM, WINDY, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS AS RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW 15% BOTH DAYS, COINCIDING WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ031.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ033>035.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR COZ033-034.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ215-216-
238>240-242-243-248.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...HIRIS
FIRE WEATHER...9
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