563
FXUS65 KBOU 260649
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1149 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE
LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
THE WIND FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS A BIT TRICKY. MODELS DIFFER
PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BREEZIER
WINDS, WHICH MAKES FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT DECISIONS A BIT DIFFICULT
(MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
PLAINS, BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER WINDS IS UNCERTAIN.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, LEADING
TO ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON SATURDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PUSHED IT INTO OUR AREA WILL
HELP KEEP WINDS MORE FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT, TURNING MORE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP BRING A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER (UNLIKE THE WARM,DRY DOWNSLOPE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WE'VE HAD RECENTLY). IN ADDITION TO THIS,
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIFT,
HIGHER MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC, AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE, AND WIND SHIFT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY (STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WE'LL ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BOTH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PLAINS. CERTAINTY IN MOUNTAIN PRECIP
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN PLAINS PRECIP, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE GIVING AT LEAST SOME PRECIP FOR
THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD. SOME OF THE MEMBERS ARE EVEN BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE, AS TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW THROWN INTO THE MIX (IF IT PRECIPITATES AT ALL).
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH COLORADO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND TRACK. BUT IT SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE AT
DEN/APA AND SHOULD SLOWLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TURN TOWARDS
DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SOMETIME LATE
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH
THE DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP A CORRIDOR OF 25-35KT WINDS OUT OF
THE WNW, WHILE MOST OF THE CAMS MAINTAIN A MORE NORTHERLY, WEAKER
FLOW. CURRENT FORECAST STILL BASICALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. AT
BJC, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
BUT MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS AT LEAST A FEW GUSTS AROUND THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS A TRICKY ONE. MODELS DO
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT THE WINDS ARE GOING TO DO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS PUTTING QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE
OTHERS MOVE THE STRONGER WINDS OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY THE
LATE MORNING, MOVING THE STRONGER WINDS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
11% TO 20% RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
AREAS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S WHETHER THEY'LL OVERLAP WITH THE CRITICAL
RHS OR LAST FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS THAT'S THE QUESTION. CONFIDENCE
HAS NOT INCREASED ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TOMORROW.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. RHS WILL DROP INTO THE 9% TO 16% RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEARING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND I-70 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THESE AREAS WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF REACHING THE WIND GUSTS
NECESSARY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 45MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, AS RHS REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL
AND WIND GUSTS SIT AROUND 20MPH. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RHS AND LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ034.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ238>240-242>246-248>251.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...HIRIS
FIRE WEATHER...AP
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