464
FXUS65 KBOU 261145
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
445 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 406 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
A FEW UPDATES TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING. FIRST, SNOW HAS BEEN MORE
PERSISTENT ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THAN EXPECTED. WEBCAMS SHOW
WINTRY CONDITIONS ACROSS I-70 FROM SILVER PLUME THROUGH VAIL PASS,
ALONG WITH SOME SNOW ON BERTHOUD PASS AND HIGHER PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 72 NEAR WARD. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THE BETTER
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH, AND I WOULD IMAGINE SNOW
SHUTS OFF PRETTY QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, WITH LITTLE OR
NO SNOWFALL AFTER NOON. I DID CONTEMPLATE RE-HOISTING AN ADVISORY
FOR THE I-70 MOUNTAINS ZONE, BUT ULTIMATELY HELD OFF GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED DURATION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ALSO STILL REMAINS REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE'S A NOTABLE SPLIT BETWEEN SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (AND NOW INCLUDES THE HRRR WHICH HAS
SHIFTED CAMPS) AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. OUR CURRENT FORECAST LIES SOMEWHAT IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT A BRIEF PUFF OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND LOOKS LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IN A CAA REGIME FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE... WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHEN RH IS DRIEST. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTERS, I
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING AND
THUS WE'VE CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR TODAY. THERE MAY STILL BE
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN WIND PRONE AREAS (ALONG
CO-93, ON THE CHEYENNE RIDGE). MEANWHILE, TOMORROW'S WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STEADIER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SO WE'VE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INSTEAD.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
THE WIND FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS A BIT TRICKY. MODELS DIFFER
PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE BREEZIER
WINDS, WHICH MAKES FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT DECISIONS A BIT DIFFICULT
(MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION). OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
PLAINS, BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER WINDS IS UNCERTAIN.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, LEADING
TO ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ON SATURDAY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT PUSHED IT INTO OUR AREA WILL
HELP KEEP WINDS MORE FROM THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT, TURNING MORE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP BRING A BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER (UNLIKE THE WARM,DRY DOWNSLOPE
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WE'VE HAD RECENTLY). IN ADDITION TO THIS,
MODELS ARE SHOWING A STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIFT,
HIGHER MOISTURE ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC, AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE, AND WIND SHIFT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY (STILL ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT NEAR RECORD VALUES). WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WE'LL ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BOTH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE PLAINS. CERTAINTY IN MOUNTAIN PRECIP
IS MUCH HIGHER THAN PLAINS PRECIP, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE GIVING AT LEAST SOME PRECIP FOR
THE PLAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON TIME
PERIOD. SOME OF THE MEMBERS ARE EVEN BRINGING A BIT OF SNOW INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP TYPE, AS TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A
FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
SNOW THROWN INTO THE MIX (IF IT PRECIPITATES AT ALL).
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW,
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH COLORADO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND TRACK. BUT IT SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND FORECAST TODAY. DEN AND BJC
HAVE SEEN CONSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND THAT LOOKS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT
16-21Z WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30KT POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD START TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME GUIDANCE
TRIES TO DEVELOP A WEAK ANTICYCLONE WHICH WOULD SHIFT WINDS
NORTHEASTERLY, BUT SOUNDINGS WOULD FAVOR A NW COMPONENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A MORE TYPICAL TURN TO DRAINAGE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS APPEAR LIKELY
AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MST WED FEB 25 2026
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS A TRICKY ONE. MODELS DO
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT THE WINDS ARE GOING TO DO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH IS PUTTING QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. SOME MODELS ARE PUTTING THE
HIGHEST WINDS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE
OTHERS MOVE THE STRONGER WINDS OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY THE
LATE MORNING, MOVING THE STRONGER WINDS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
11% TO 20% RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
AREAS ON THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S WHETHER THEY'LL OVERLAP WITH THE CRITICAL
RHS OR LAST FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS THAT'S THE QUESTION. CONFIDENCE
HAS NOT INCREASED ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A WARNING FOR TOMORROW.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. RHS WILL DROP INTO THE 9% TO 16% RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEARING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND I-70 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF
THESE AREAS WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF REACHING THE WIND GUSTS
NECESSARY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 45MPH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, AS RHS REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL
AND WIND GUSTS SIT AROUND 20MPH. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE RHS AND LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ238>240-242>245-248>251.
UPDATE...HIRIS
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...HIRIS
FIRE WEATHER...AP
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