061
FXUS65 KBOU 261931
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1231 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES, INCLUDING COLORADO THROUGH
MONDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS RESIDES TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN ADDITION TO THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. IT WILL BE VERY DRY BOTH DAYS AS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE BOTH DAYS.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND A RED FLAG
WARNING WAS ISSUED. (SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR DETAILS). A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL HELP DRIVE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS FRONT ENTERS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST TO THE FOOTHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS A LITTLE SATURDAY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO. A WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE (A LITTLE) AND LIFT FROM A JET
STREAK COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. IT'S NOT AN IMPRESSIVE
SETUP, WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. FOR MONDAY, THERE'S A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IF
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA NOT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
IT'S LOOKING MORE AND MORE WE WILL FINALLY SEE A PATTERN CHANGE
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. OVER THE WEST, A SERIES OVER SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRAVERSE EASTWARD. THE
FIRST WAVE IS ON TRACK MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND THE
SECOND ONE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THERE'S PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS. WE WILL SEE A COOL DOWN WITH
THESE SYSTEMS, BUT THEY DON'T TAP INTO ANY COLDER (ARCTIC AIR) TO
THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKELY ENDS UP AS RAIN OVER THE
PLAINS WITH SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S MOST DAYS, THOUGH IF WE
SEE A CLOUDIER DAY HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER WINDS AT KDEN TODAY HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY, AND HAVE THUS REMOVED MENTION OF GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS
FROM THE TAF. THESE WILL REMAIN MORE LIKELY AT KAPA AND KBJC, AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE WIND GUSTS RECEDE CLOSER TO
THE FOOTHILLS LATER IN THE DAY.
KDEN'S WIND DIRECTION IS THE MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST COMPONENT
TODAY. A WEAK NW TO SE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL, AND APPEARS TO BE KEEPING THE WESTERLY GUSTS AT BAY.
FORECASTS FAVORS CONTINUATION OF THIS NNE/NE FLOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME, FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
TREND BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS WINDS WEAKEN AND THIS BOUNDARY
PRESUMABLY WASHES OUT, WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW MID TO
LATE EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE A WARM AND VERY DRY DAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. THE SETUP IS A BIT MUDDY THROUGH. MODELS ARE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO 40 MPH ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. WINDS THEN ANTI-CYCLONE AND BECOME WEAKER
(POSSIBLY EASTERLY) FOR THE FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY AREAS. THEN
THERE'S A SECOND SURGE OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
DENVER AND A SECOND ANTI- CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, OVER/NEAR THE
DENVER AREA. MODELS GENERALLY DO A GOOD JOB AT PREDICTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS, BUT STRUGGLE ON
THE PLACEMENT. THUS, WE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIDESPREAD RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH A FEW AREAS OF WEAKER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FOR SATURDAY, WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AGAIN WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS LOOK TO
BE WEAKER AND GUSTIER WINDS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER AND IN THE FOOTHILLS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ238>240-
242>245-248-249.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...BRQ
FIRE WEATHER...12
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