596
FXUS65 KBOU 271729
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1029 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. STRONG 700MB NW WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY LEADING TO CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOONS. FOR FRIDAY, WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS COMING OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. FOR SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER AND MORE
CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY, BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'LL
SEE HIGHS DROP AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THE
EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND RH VALUES, BRINGING AN END TO OUR STRING OF NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPPER LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME
SHOWERS GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE
IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (<30%) THAT SOME PRECIP COULD SPILL OFF INTO
THE PLAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OFF OF THE WEST COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND, PROGRESSING TOWARDS COLORADO FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. WE'LL SEE STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW, BUT MODELS VARY ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN GET INTO THE AREA PRIOR TO IT MOVING
THROUGH, IMPACTING PRECIP AMOUNTS. MODELS DIFFER IN THE EXACT
TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW AT LEAST SOME PRECIP FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND A GOOD PORTION OF
THE PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR
THE PLAINS, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEMS,
IF WE CAN GET SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR A LOW NEAR THE AREA
PROMOTING MORE EASTERLY WINDS AND SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT (LIKE A FEW
MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING), WE COULD SEE SOME BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
AND AMOUNTS FOR THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING AN
ADDITIONAL FEW INCHES TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ELEVATIONS, BUT
EXACT AMOUNT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
TEMPERATURES/SNOW RATIOS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF WEDNESDAY,
LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.
HOWEVER, THE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST U.S. FOR THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, SENDING A FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FRONTOGENESIS NEAR THE SURFACE
AND QG LIFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
WEST WINDS ARE HANGING ON SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, AND THE LATEST TAFS REFLECT A DELAYED TRANSITION TO
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH NOW LOOKS MORE FAVORED TO OCCUR
CLOSER TO 19-20Z. EVEN THEN, THERE'S ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF WINDS
REMAINING MORE DUE W/WNW.
THE STRONGER GUSTS REMAIN CONFINED TO KBJC AT THIS HOUR, ALTHOUGH
RADAR INDICATES A MODEST EXPANSION OF GUSTS 15-23 KTS ALOFT, WHICH
SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
NONETHELESS, THE 20-00Z WINDOW REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR THE
STRONGEST GUSTS, WHICH MAY NEAR 25 KTS FOR KDEN/KAPA, AND 32-38
KTS FOR KBJC.
EXPECT A RAPID WEAKENING OF WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 00-01Z COINCIDENT
WITH SUNSET. THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTIONS EARLY
EVENING, WITH SOME SPATIAL VARIABILITY LIKELY ACROSS THE DENVER
METRO (RANGING FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY). IN ANY CASE, SUCH
WINDS SHOULD MOSTLY BE 10 KTS OR LESS, BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DRAINAGE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY 03-04Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY
RHS WILL DROP INTO THE 8% TO 15% RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO
40MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER. THERE COULD BE AN AREA OF WEAKER WINDS IN
BETWEEN TWO STRONGER BANDS OF WINDS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT PLACEMENT IS TOO LOW TO EXCLUDE ANY OF THE AREA WITHIN THE
RFW FOR FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL. RHS IN THE PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND 8% TO 15%
IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY. WINDS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER WILL BE
THE STRONGEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY, BUT GUSTS WILL BE MORE BORDERLINE
THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE TODAY. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 238, 242, AND 248 ONCE
WE GET A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE WIND FORECAST. RHS WILL
INCREASE FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING AN END TO OUR STRING OF NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ238>240-
242>245-248-249.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...BRQ
FIRE WEATHER...AP
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