425
FXUS65 KBOU 272345
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
445 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER WAVE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-7" POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, LESS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
- RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
POSSIBLE (>50%) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE AT 500
MB WILL BE CENTERED AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
THEN IT FLATTENS INTO ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. 700 MB TEMPS
HOLD PRETTY STEADY AROUND 0 DEGC, PERHAPS WARMING TO +2 DEGC BY
SUNDAY. THAT TRANSLATES INTO CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ON SATURDAY, BUT A LITTLE CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR-SURFACE AIR MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL LIKEWISE BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS AT 700
MB LOOK TO BE 25-45 KTS ON SATURDAY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
INGREDIENTS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT TOMORROW ARE NOT IN
PLACE, SO FOR THE MOST PART EXPECTING BRUTE FORCE WINDS TO PICK UP
ONCE MIXING GETS GOING SATURDAY LATE MORNING. CAMS FOR NOW SHOW
15-20KT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
COMING OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE. ANTICYCLONING IS LIKELY TO KEEP
WINDS MUCH WEAKER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. RH TOMORROW WILL DEFINITELY
DRY ENOUGH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS, BUT THE ONLY AREA IT OVERLAPS
WITH STRONGER WNW WINDS ARE THOSE NORTHERN TIERS. THUS, WE HAVE
ISSUED A RFW FOR JUST THE NORTHER TIER COUNTIES LARIMER, WELD,
AND LOGAN. ON SUNDAY WINDS ARE WEAKER AND RH COMES UP WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS, SO FOR NOW WE PROBABLY WON'T NEED ANY FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR SUNDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING BUT WASH OUT
QUICKLY EARLY SUNDAY. THE IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
ASIDE FROM THE PLAINS RED FLAG CONDITIONS, THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE RIDGE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLE
MEAN QPF IS BETWEEN 0.1" AND 0.3" LIQUID FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, A LITTLE LESS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS. MODEL
LAPSE RATES AT RIDGE TOP ARE MARGINAL WHICH IS WHY AMOUNTS ARE
LOOKING PRETTY LIGHT. TIMING WISE, THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE MARCH 1ST SUN
ANGLE, TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PASSES SHOULD BE OK
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW SHOULD END EARLY MORNING
MORNING, SO AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY ROADS COULD BE SLICK IN SPOTS WITH
REFREEZING AND MUCH COLDER AIR AND ROAD TEMPERATURES. SNOW LEVELS
INITIALLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 8,000 FEET, BUT RISE TO
NEAR 9,000 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE A LULL IN BETWEEN TROUGHS AS A STRONGER WEST
COAST TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE AND BUILDS THE RIDGE TEMPORARILY BACK
OVER COLORADO. THAT SAME TROUGH INITIALLY ADVECTS MUCH DRIER AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ALSO A TAD WARMER,
WITH 700 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +4DEGC, MAYBE EVEN +6DEGC DEPENDING
ON CHOICE OF MODEL. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
60S, THOUGH THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS POOL OF COOL AIR, SO THEY MAY ONLY REACH
THE MID 50S. IN THE MOUNTAINS, VERY LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW FOR THE
PARK AND MEDICINE BOW RANGES MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL LIGHT AND TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THERE IS HOPE ON THE HORIZON FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, BUT A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
INDEED GENERATES BOTH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND I-25 CORRIDOR/PLAINS
RAIN. FROM A PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE, THERE IS POTENTIAL
(10-15%) FOR > 0.75" LIQUID ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH THE EURO ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
GFS ENSEMBLES. MEAN QPF FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS AROUND 0.3-0.4"
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, BUT ONLY 0.2" FROM THE EURO ENSEMBLES. MANY OF
THE SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TROUGH GOING RIGHT OVERHEAD, WHICH OFTEN
RESULTS IN CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY ADD TO THE
GLOBAL MODEL QPF. ACROSS THE PLAINS, A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY EARLY
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. THE WAY IT
LOOKS FOR NOW, WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE TO RELY ON CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION EAST OF
THE ROCKIES, BUT IT DOES LOOK PRETTY UNSTABLE SO WE HAVE THAT
GOING FOR US. SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD BE ABOVE 35 DEGF, AND MAYBE EVEN AS
WARM AS 40 DEGF DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS, ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN BELOW 6,500 FT. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. THUS WE ARE NOT PUTTING A LOT
CONFIDENCE IN THE WED-FRIDAY TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE LATER NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OR NEAR COLORADO IN THAT TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 421 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
WINDS SHOULD STAY MAINLY WNW/NW AT BJC AND DIA THRU 01Z WHILE APA
STAYS NORTH THRU 01Z. WINDS AT DIA MAY BECOME LIGHT NORTH AFTER
01Z BEFORE GOING SW/SSW BY 04Z OR 05Z. WINDS AT APA WILL BECOME
MORE SSW BY 05Z WHILE BJC BECOMES MORE SW.
ON SAT, SSW/S WINDS WILL BECOME EAST AT DIA BY 21Z OR 22Z WHILE
APA IS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH. BJC WILL BECOME WNW BY 17Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE RFW AREA. CURRENTLY RH HAS DROPPED BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR EAST TO THE
KS/NE BORDER. EXPECT RH TO REMAIN THAT LOW UNTIL RECOVERY AFTER
6 PM. WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG AND GUSTY IN RELATIVELY NARROW
CORRIDORS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE BROOMFIELD
AREA. OVERALL, WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25-30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF
THE RFW AREA. HOWEVER, NORTH OF CO-14, GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 30 MPH
ALL AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW, ANTICYCLONING OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
WEAKER EAST WINDS SOUTH OF US-34, INCLUDING ALL OF METRO DENVER
AND THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. THUS, DESPITE RH DROPPING TO 10% AND
BELOW ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS, THE ONLY AREA THAT SHOULD SEE
STRONG ENOUGH WINDS IS ALONG THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER ACROSS
NORTHERN LARIMER, NORTHERN WELD, AND LOGAN COUNTIES WHERE WNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 30 MPH ALL AFTERNOON. THE RFW IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA 10 AM THROUGH 6 PM. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING, WITH
WEAKER WINDS, COOLER AIR, AND HIGH RH.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ238>240-
242>245-248-249.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR COZ238-242-
248.
DISCUSSION...SCHLATTER
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...SCHLATTER
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