785
FXUS65 KBOU 281806
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1106 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR (>40%
CHANCE) LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
WE HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF REALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE WE GET A REPRIEVE. RHS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WEAKER ON SATURDAY THAN
WHAT WE SAW ON FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS STAYING NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER AND MUCH WEAKER WINDS IN THE
URBAN CORRIDOR (POTENTIALLY EVEN A WEAK EAST WIND THANKS TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION). A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BREEZY NE/E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 TO 35 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BY
SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BE MORE SSE, REMAINING BREEZY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOR AREAS FURTHER WEST ON THE PLAINS
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING, GIVING AREAS
AROUND THE URBAN CORRIDOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WE'RE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR THREE
SEPARATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND TWO FOR THE
PLAINS. THE FIRST WILL START LATE SATURDAY, CONTINUING INTO LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO THE MOUNTAINS AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK QG
ASCENT, OROGRAPHICS, AND MAYBE SOME WEAK LIFT FROM THE RIGHT EXIT OF
THE JET WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND. SNOW
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH MOST
LIKELY SNOW TOTALS BETWEEN 1 AND 6 INCHES AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
IT IS WORTH NOTING, THAT IT WILL BE WARM AND SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
AROUND 9000FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WHICH MEANS AREAS BELOW 9000FT IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A RAIN SNOW MIX OR EVEN JUST LIGHT RAIN ON
SUNDAY.
THE SECOND EVENT WILL START SOMETIME LATE MONDAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS/
EARLY TUESDAY FOR THE PLAINS, ENDING LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OFF THE WEST COAST LATE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS COLORADO FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE WEEK, MOVING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
LOW, WE'LL SEE STRONG QG LIFT AND PWATS INCREASING TO 200+
PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS, THEY'RE SHOWING A SATURATED COLUMN WITH DECENT
LAPSE RATES, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER
SNOW/RAIN. IN THE MOUNTAINS WE'RE LOOKING AT MOST LIKELY SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 3 TO 11 INCHES FOR THE FRONT RANGE AND PARK RANGE.
IN THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS, CONDITIONS LOOK TOO WARM FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION. BUT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<25%) THAT AREAS
NEAR THE PALMER COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. MODELS
ARE STILL BOUNCING AROUND ON PRECIP AMOUNTS, BUT CURRENTLY WE'RE
SITTING AT A ~30% CHANCE THAT THE URBAN CORRIDOR SEES AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP.
THE THIRD EVENT WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD.
THIS ONE HOLDS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEK. MODELS ARE
CHANGING CONSTANTLY ON WHAT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL LOOK LIKE
FOR THIS EVENT, RANGING ANYWHERE FROM A DECENT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA TO A FULL BLOWN CLOSED LOW SITTING OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST FOR DAYS. IN MOST MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, OUR
AREA SEES SOME PRECIP, BUT THE AMOUNTS AND TIMING VARY PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SNOW EVENT FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY, A GUSTY WNW
AND NE BOUNDARY ARE CONVERGING OVER KDEN, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FIELD, AND LIGHTER NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE EASTERN PORTION. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
WIND DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR, BUT DO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SETTLE IN IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. FROM THEN ONWARD, WINDS SHOULD MAKE AN EASTERLY TRANSITION
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DELAYING DRAINAGE
WINDS FROM SETTLING IN UNTIL AROUND 8/9Z TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY, A SURFACE CYCLONE LOOKS TO FORM JUST NORTH AND EAST OF
THE TAF SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING. CURRENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS
LIGHT WNW WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS WITH ANY CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AS IT MAY
CHANGE DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE CYCLONE FORMS, THOUGH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT UNDER A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
RHS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PLAINS AGAIN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE BREEZY WINDS WILL BE
MORE CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS. AREAS ALONG THE WY/CO BORDER
COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 40MPH IN THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON, LEADING US TO PUT OUT AN RFW FOR ZONES 238, 242,
AND 248 FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM
THE E/NE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'LL SEE AN
INCREASE IN RH, BRINGING US ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ238-242-248.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...AP
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