999
UXUS97 KBOU 140105
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1904 MDT FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 14, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 64.5 F/18.1 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 929 FT/MIN (4.7 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 16991 FT MSL (11631 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 75.0 F/24.3 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1100 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... OVERCAST THIN HIGH
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 30 MPH
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 12953 FT MSL (7593 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY 03/15....... FAIR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... LITTLE CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ WEAK PVA
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 14454 FT MSL (9094 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY 03/15.......... POOR
REMARKS... WARM AND WINDY SATURDAY, MUCH COOLER BUT STILL WINDY SUNDAY
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:11:53 / 19:05:14 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 11 HR 53 MIN 21 SEC (713 MIN 21 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:08:33 MDT... 47.89 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 03/14/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 12017 FT MSL (6657 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 19709 FT MSL (14349 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 19170 FT MSL (13810 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +1.2
K INDEX......................... +5.6
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.9 -81.2 295 61 32 -1.2 -0.6 M M M M M
45000 -64.7 -84.5 295 86 44 -0.3 -0.2 M M M M M
40000 -63.4 -82.1 290 76 39 0.9 0.5 M M M M M
38000 -60.5 -76.9 290 70 36 8.1 4.4 M M M M M
36000 -55.6 -68.1 290 64 33 8.1 4.4 M M M M M
34000 -50.9 -59.6 285 58 30 7.2 3.9 M M M M M
32000 -46.0 -50.8 285 50 26 7.2 3.9 M M M M M
30000 -41.7 -43.1 285 45 23 7.3 4.0 33.6 92.4 7.3 M M
29000 -39.6 -39.3 285 43 22 7.3 4.0 32.5 90.5 6.6 M M
28000 -37.4 -35.3 285 42 21 7.3 4.0 31.6 88.9 5.9 M M
27000 -35.2 -31.4 285 40 21 8.0 4.4 30.8 87.5 5.4 M M
26000 -32.7 -26.9 285 39 20 8.1 4.5 30.1 86.2 4.9 M M
25000 -30.3 -22.5 285 38 20 8.1 4.5 29.5 85.1 4.4 M M
24000 -27.9 -18.2 285 38 19 8.1 4.5 29.0 84.2 4.1 M M
23000 -25.5 -13.9 285 36 19 8.1 4.5 28.3 83.0 3.5 M M
22000 -23.0 -9.4 285 35 18 8.1 4.5 27.7 81.9 3.1 M M
21000 -20.6 -5.1 285 33 17 7.7 4.2 27.2 81.0 2.7 M M
20000 -18.4 -1.1 285 30 15 7.6 4.2 26.4 79.4 2.0 M M
19500 -17.3 0.9 285 28 14 7.6 4.2 26.0 78.8 1.6 M M
19000 -15.6 3.9 285 26 13 7.6 4.1 25.5 77.8 1.2 M M
18500 -14.4 6.1 285 25 13 7.7 4.2 25.1 77.2 0.9 M M
18000 -13.3 8.1 285 24 12 7.7 4.2 24.8 76.6 0.6 M M
17500 -12.1 10.2 285 23 12 7.7 4.2 24.4 76.0 0.3 M M
17000 -11.0 12.2 290 24 12 7.7 4.2 24.1 75.3 -0.1 1021 5.2
16500 -9.8 14.4 290 24 13 7.7 4.2 23.7 74.7 -0.4 971 4.9
16000 -8.7 16.3 295 25 13 7.3 4.0 23.3 74.0 -0.7 923 4.7
15500 -7.7 18.1 295 27 14 7.3 4.0 22.9 73.3 -1.1 876 4.5
15000 -6.6 20.1 295 28 14 7.3 4.0 22.5 72.6 -1.5 829 4.2
14500 -5.5 22.1 295 30 15 7.3 4.0 22.1 71.8 -1.9 781 4.0
14000 -4.4 24.1 295 31 16 7.4 4.0 21.7 71.1 -2.2 734 3.7
13500 -3.3 26.1 295 33 17 7.4 4.0 21.3 70.4 -2.6 686 3.5
13000 -2.2 28.0 295 35 18 7.5 4.1 21.0 69.8 -3.0 639 3.2
12500 -1.1 30.0 295 36 19 7.5 4.1 20.6 69.1 -3.3 590 3.0
12000 0.0 32.0 290 38 19 7.5 4.1 20.3 68.5 -3.7 542 2.8
11500 1.2 34.2 290 38 20 7.5 4.1 19.9 67.8 -4.1 493 2.5
11000 2.3 36.1 285 39 20 7.4 4.0 19.6 67.2 -4.4 445 2.3
10500 3.4 38.1 285 40 21 6.8 3.7 19.1 66.4 -4.8 398 2.0
10250 3.9 39.0 285 41 21 7.8 4.3 18.9 66.0 -5.0 375 1.9
10000 4.5 40.1 285 41 21 8.6 4.7 18.8 65.9 -5.1 349 1.8
9750 5.1 41.2 285 40 21 7.7 4.2 18.7 65.6 -5.3 323 1.6
9500 5.7 42.3 285 40 20 7.6 4.2 18.5 65.3 -5.5 299 1.5
9250 6.3 43.3 280 39 20 7.6 4.2 18.4 65.0 -5.6 274 1.4
9000 6.8 44.2 280 38 20 7.7 4.2 18.2 64.8 -5.8 250 1.3
8750 7.4 45.3 280 37 19 7.5 4.1 18.0 64.4 -6.0 225 1.1
8500 8.0 46.4 280 35 18 7.3 4.0 17.8 64.1 -6.2 201 1.0
8250 8.5 47.3 280 33 17 7.3 4.0 17.7 63.8 -6.4 178 0.9
8000 9.0 48.2 275 30 16 6.4 3.5 17.4 63.4 -6.6 155 0.8
7750 9.5 49.1 275 27 14 6.5 3.6 17.2 62.9 -6.9 134 0.7
7500 10.0 50.0 275 25 13 7.3 4.0 17.0 62.5 -7.1 111 0.6
7250 10.5 50.9 270 23 12 6.6 3.6 16.8 62.2 -7.3 88 0.4
7000 11.0 51.8 270 20 10 5.5 3.0 16.5 61.7 -7.6 67 0.3
6750 11.3 52.3 265 18 9 4.7 2.6 16.1 61.0 -8.0 48 0.2
6500 11.7 53.1 255 15 8 6.0 3.3 15.8 60.4 -8.4 30 0.2
6250 12.0 53.6 245 14 7 0.3 0.2 15.4 59.7 -8.8 12 0.1
6000 11.7 53.1 230 12 6 -4.6 -2.5 14.4 57.8 -9.9 14 0.1
5750 11.4 52.5 215 12 6 -5.1 -2.8 13.3 56.0 -10.9 16 0.1
5500 10.5 50.9 200 12 6 -22.3 -12.2 11.7 53.1 -12.6 37 0.2
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
03/14/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 03/14/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.1
CINH... -0.7 K INDEX... +3.6 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +3.7
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.4 -80.3 295 64 33 -1.6 -0.9 | -60.9 -77.6 285 52 27 -2.4 -1.3
45000 -64.9 -84.8 290 85 44 -0.5 -0.3 | -64.7 -84.5 280 91 47 -1.4 -0.8
40000 -63.2 -81.8 285 71 37 1.1 0.6 | -63.2 -81.8 275 71 37 1.0 0.6
38000 -60.4 -76.7 285 66 34 7.7 4.2 | -60.5 -76.9 275 64 33 7.5 4.1
36000 -55.8 -68.4 285 60 31 7.7 4.2 | -56.1 -69.0 275 56 29 7.5 4.1
34000 -51.2 -60.2 280 54 28 7.6 4.2 | -50.9 -59.6 270 49 25 8.1 4.5
32000 -46.0 -50.8 280 48 25 7.6 4.2 | -46.0 -50.8 275 46 24 8.1 4.5
30000 -41.5 -42.7 280 43 22 7.4 4.1 | -41.2 -42.2 275 43 22 7.7 4.2
29000 -39.3 -38.7 280 42 21 7.4 4.1 | -38.9 -38.0 275 43 22 7.7 4.2
28000 -37.1 -34.8 285 40 21 7.4 4.1 | -36.6 -33.9 275 43 22 7.7 4.2
27000 -34.8 -30.6 285 39 20 7.7 4.2 | -34.3 -29.7 280 42 22 7.7 4.2
26000 -32.5 -26.5 285 40 20 7.8 4.3 | -32.0 -25.6 280 43 22 7.7 4.2
25000 -30.2 -22.4 290 40 21 7.8 4.3 | -29.7 -21.5 280 44 22 7.7 4.2
24000 -27.9 -18.2 290 40 21 7.8 4.3 | -27.4 -17.3 280 44 23 7.6 4.1
23000 -25.6 -14.1 290 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -25.2 -13.4 280 46 24 7.3 4.0
22000 -23.2 -9.8 290 42 21 7.9 4.3 | -23.0 -9.4 280 48 25 7.3 4.0
21000 -20.9 -5.6 290 42 22 7.5 4.1 | -20.9 -5.6 280 50 26 7.1 3.9
20000 -18.7 -1.7 290 43 22 7.4 4.1 | -18.8 -1.8 280 52 27 7.1 3.9
19500 -17.6 0.3 290 43 22 7.4 4.1 | -17.2 1.0 280 53 27 7.1 3.9
19000 -15.9 3.4 290 43 22 7.4 4.1 | -16.1 3.0 280 54 28 7.0 3.8
18500 -14.8 5.4 290 43 22 7.3 4.0 | -15.1 4.8 280 54 28 7.6 4.2
18000 -13.8 7.2 290 42 22 7.3 4.0 | -13.9 7.0 280 54 28 7.6 4.2
17500 -12.7 9.1 290 41 21 7.3 4.0 | -12.8 9.0 275 54 28 7.6 4.2
17000 -11.6 11.1 285 40 21 7.2 4.0 | -11.7 10.9 275 53 27 7.5 4.1
16500 -10.5 13.1 285 39 20 7.2 4.0 | -10.5 13.1 275 51 26 7.4 4.1
16000 -9.4 15.1 285 39 20 7.8 4.3 | -9.4 15.1 275 49 25 7.8 4.3
15500 -8.2 17.2 285 40 21 7.7 4.2 | -8.2 17.2 275 47 24 7.8 4.3
15000 -7.1 19.2 285 40 21 8.0 4.4 | -7.1 19.2 275 44 23 8.2 4.5
14500 -5.9 21.4 285 41 21 8.1 4.4 | -5.8 21.6 275 42 22 8.3 4.6
14000 -4.7 23.5 285 41 21 8.2 4.5 | -4.6 23.7 270 40 21 8.6 4.7
13500 -3.4 25.9 280 40 21 8.3 4.5 | -3.3 26.1 270 41 21 8.8 4.8
13000 -2.2 28.0 280 39 20 8.3 4.6 | -1.9 28.6 275 42 22 8.8 4.8
12500 -0.9 30.4 280 39 20 8.4 4.6 | -0.7 30.7 270 41 21 8.7 4.7
12000 0.3 32.5 280 39 20 8.4 4.6 | 0.6 33.1 270 40 21 8.7 4.8
11500 1.6 34.9 280 38 19 8.3 4.6 | 1.9 35.4 270 38 20 8.9 4.9
11000 2.8 37.0 275 37 19 8.0 4.4 | 3.3 37.9 270 36 19 8.7 4.8
10500 3.9 39.0 275 37 19 6.8 3.7 | 4.5 40.1 265 33 17 8.0 4.4
10250 4.4 39.9 275 37 19 8.3 4.6 | 5.1 41.2 265 32 16 9.0 4.9
10000 5.1 41.2 275 37 19 9.6 5.3 | 5.8 42.4 265 31 16 10.0 5.5
9750 5.8 42.4 275 36 18 8.5 4.7 | 6.6 43.9 265 30 15 9.7 5.3
9500 6.4 43.5 275 35 18 8.3 4.6 | 7.3 45.1 265 28 14 9.8 5.4
9250 7.1 44.8 275 34 17 8.3 4.5 | 8.0 46.4 260 27 14 9.5 5.2
9000 7.7 45.9 275 33 17 7.6 4.2 | 8.7 47.7 260 26 13 8.8 4.8
8750 8.2 46.8 270 32 16 7.9 4.3 | 9.4 48.9 260 25 13 9.0 4.9
8500 8.8 47.8 270 30 16 8.4 4.6 | 10.1 50.2 260 24 12 9.5 5.2
8250 9.5 49.1 265 29 15 8.4 4.6 | 10.8 51.4 255 22 12 9.3 5.1
8000 10.1 50.2 265 28 14 8.4 4.6 | 11.5 52.7 255 21 11 9.5 5.2
7750 10.7 51.3 260 26 13 7.3 4.0 | 12.2 54.0 255 20 10 9.3 5.1
7500 11.2 52.2 260 24 13 6.8 3.7 | 12.8 55.0 255 19 10 9.0 4.9
7250 11.7 53.1 255 23 12 6.6 3.6 | 13.5 56.3 250 18 9 9.0 4.9
7000 12.2 54.0 250 22 11 5.7 3.1 | 14.2 57.6 250 17 9 8.5 4.7
6750 12.5 54.5 250 20 10 5.0 2.7 | 14.8 58.6 250 16 8 9.2 5.0
6500 12.9 55.2 240 19 10 6.5 3.6 | 15.6 60.1 245 14 7 9.8 5.4
6250 13.3 55.9 235 17 9 1.3 0.7 | 16.3 61.3 245 13 7 10.0 5.5
6000 13.1 55.6 225 17 9 -4.2 -2.3 | 17.1 62.8 245 13 6 11.2 6.1
5750 12.8 55.0 220 16 8 -4.4 -2.4 | 17.9 64.2 245 12 6 9.7 5.3
5500 12.2 54.0 210 13 7 -13.6 -7.4 | 18.6 65.5 245 11 6 11.3 6.2
03/14/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 03/14/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.2
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +7.0 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +7.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.9 -75.8 280 52 27 -2.9 -1.6 | -58.2 -72.8 285 44 23 -2.4 -1.3
45000 -64.4 -83.9 270 90 47 -1.8 -1.0 | -62.0 -79.6 270 84 43 -2.3 -1.2
40000 -63.4 -82.1 270 76 39 0.7 0.4 | -61.9 -79.4 265 75 39 0.2 0.1
38000 -60.7 -77.3 270 70 36 7.8 4.3 | -60.3 -76.5 265 72 37 5.8 3.2
36000 -56.0 -68.8 270 65 33 7.8 4.3 | -56.8 -70.2 265 71 37 5.8 3.2
34000 -51.3 -60.3 265 60 31 8.1 4.5 | -53.2 -63.8 265 69 35 8.3 4.6
32000 -45.8 -50.4 270 56 29 8.1 4.5 | -47.7 -53.9 260 58 30 8.2 4.5
30000 -41.0 -41.8 270 53 27 7.6 4.2 | -42.7 -44.9 260 50 26 8.2 4.5
29000 -38.7 -37.7 270 53 27 7.6 4.2 | -40.3 -40.5 260 49 25 8.3 4.6
28000 -36.5 -33.7 275 52 27 7.6 4.2 | -37.8 -36.0 265 49 25 8.3 4.6
27000 -34.2 -29.6 275 52 27 7.5 4.1 | -35.3 -31.5 265 48 25 8.2 4.5
26000 -32.0 -25.6 275 52 27 7.5 4.1 | -32.9 -27.2 270 49 25 8.0 4.4
25000 -29.7 -21.5 275 52 27 7.5 4.1 | -30.5 -22.9 270 50 26 8.0 4.4
24000 -27.5 -17.5 275 52 27 7.5 4.1 | -28.1 -18.6 270 51 26 8.0 4.4
23000 -25.3 -13.5 275 52 27 7.3 4.0 | -25.7 -14.3 275 53 27 8.0 4.4
22000 -23.2 -9.8 270 53 27 7.3 4.0 | -23.3 -9.9 275 54 28 8.0 4.4
21000 -21.0 -5.8 270 54 28 7.3 4.0 | -20.9 -5.6 275 55 28 7.7 4.2
20000 -18.8 -1.8 270 54 28 7.2 4.0 | -18.8 -1.8 275 55 28 7.1 3.9
19500 -17.8 -0.0 270 55 28 7.2 4.0 | -17.8 -0.0 275 55 28 7.1 3.9
19000 -16.7 1.9 270 55 28 7.3 4.0 | -16.7 1.9 275 55 28 7.1 3.9
18500 -15.6 3.9 270 55 28 7.3 4.0 | -15.1 4.8 270 55 28 7.4 4.0
18000 -13.9 7.0 270 54 28 7.7 4.2 | -14.0 6.8 270 55 28 7.5 4.1
17500 -12.7 9.1 270 54 28 7.8 4.3 | -12.9 8.8 270 55 28 7.5 4.1
17000 -11.5 11.3 270 53 27 8.1 4.4 | -11.7 10.9 270 56 29 7.9 4.3
16500 -10.4 13.3 270 51 26 8.1 4.4 | -10.5 13.1 270 58 30 7.9 4.3
16000 -9.2 15.4 270 50 26 7.9 4.3 | -9.4 15.1 270 59 30 7.6 4.2
15500 -8.0 17.6 270 50 26 7.9 4.3 | -8.3 17.1 270 59 30 7.5 4.1
15000 -6.8 19.8 270 49 25 8.2 4.5 | -7.1 19.2 270 58 30 7.6 4.2
14500 -5.6 21.9 270 47 24 8.3 4.6 | -6.0 21.2 270 58 30 7.7 4.2
14000 -4.4 24.1 265 45 23 8.5 4.6 | -4.9 23.2 270 57 30 7.8 4.3
13500 -3.1 26.4 265 43 22 8.7 4.8 | -3.7 25.3 270 56 29 8.1 4.4
13000 -1.8 28.8 265 41 21 8.8 4.8 | -2.5 27.5 270 54 28 8.0 4.4
12500 -0.4 31.3 265 39 20 9.5 5.2 | -1.3 29.7 265 53 27 8.9 4.9
12000 1.0 33.8 265 36 19 9.5 5.2 | 0.0 32.0 265 51 26 8.8 4.9
11500 2.4 36.3 265 35 18 9.6 5.3 | 1.3 34.3 265 50 26 8.9 4.9
11000 3.8 38.8 265 33 17 9.6 5.3 | 2.6 36.7 265 48 25 8.9 4.9
10500 5.3 41.5 265 32 16 9.9 5.4 | 4.0 39.2 265 46 24 9.6 5.3
10250 6.0 42.8 265 31 16 9.6 5.3 | 4.7 40.5 265 46 23 9.6 5.2
10000 6.7 44.1 265 30 16 9.4 5.2 | 5.4 41.7 265 45 23 9.5 5.2
9750 7.4 45.3 265 30 15 10.2 5.6 | 6.1 43.0 265 44 23 9.8 5.4
9500 8.2 46.8 265 29 15 10.7 5.9 | 6.9 44.4 265 43 22 10.2 5.6
9250 9.0 48.2 265 28 15 10.2 5.6 | 7.7 45.9 265 42 22 10.1 5.5
9000 9.7 49.5 265 28 14 9.1 5.0 | 8.4 47.1 265 41 21 8.9 4.9
8750 10.4 50.7 265 27 14 9.6 5.3 | 9.0 48.2 265 40 21 9.5 5.2
8500 11.2 52.2 265 26 14 10.3 5.7 | 9.8 49.6 265 39 20 10.5 5.8
8250 11.9 53.4 265 26 13 10.5 5.7 | 10.6 51.1 265 38 20 10.7 5.9
8000 12.7 54.9 265 25 13 9.1 5.0 | 11.3 52.3 265 37 19 9.0 4.9
7750 13.3 55.9 265 24 13 8.9 4.9 | 11.9 53.4 265 36 18 8.7 4.8
7500 14.1 57.4 265 24 12 10.2 5.6 | 12.7 54.9 265 35 18 10.2 5.6
7250 14.8 58.6 265 23 12 9.9 5.4 | 13.4 56.1 265 33 17 9.9 5.4
7000 15.6 60.1 265 22 11 9.9 5.4 | 14.2 57.6 265 32 17 9.6 5.3
6750 16.3 61.3 265 22 11 9.9 5.4 | 14.9 58.8 265 31 16 9.7 5.3
6500 17.0 62.6 265 21 11 10.0 5.5 | 15.6 60.1 265 30 15 10.3 5.6
6250 17.8 64.0 265 20 10 10.1 5.5 | 16.4 61.5 265 28 14 10.3 5.6
6000 18.5 65.3 265 19 10 9.9 5.5 | 17.1 62.8 265 27 14 9.6 5.3
5750 19.4 66.9 265 18 9 13.6 7.5 | 17.8 64.0 270 24 12 9.1 5.0
5500 20.6 69.1 265 16 8 20.3 11.1 | 18.5 65.3 270 20 10 10.3 5.7
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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