929
UXUS97 KBOU 141236
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
0632 MDT SATURDAY, MARCH 14, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 14, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 64.5 F/18.1 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... GOOD
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1186 FT/MIN (6.0 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 19392 FT MSL (14028 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 77.0 F/25.5 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1000 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... OVERCAST THIN HIGH
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 30 MPH
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 14961 FT MSL (9596 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY 03/15....... FAIR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... LITTLE CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 14461 FT MSL (9097 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY 03/15.......... FAIR
REMARKS... STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:11:53 / 19:05:14 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 11 HR 53 MIN 21 SEC (713 MIN 21 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:08:33 MDT... 47.89 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 03/14/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 11864 FT MSL (6500 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 19047 FT MSL (13683 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 19345 FT MSL (13981 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -0.3
K INDEX......................... +5.1
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.5 -80.5 295 63 32 -1.1 -0.6 M M M M M
45000 -64.1 -83.4 295 86 44 -0.5 -0.3 M M M M M
40000 -63.2 -81.8 285 74 38 0.6 0.3 M M M M M
38000 -60.5 -76.9 285 70 36 7.8 4.3 M M M M M
36000 -55.8 -68.4 285 65 34 7.8 4.3 M M M M M
34000 -50.7 -59.3 285 59 30 7.1 3.9 M M M M M
32000 -46.4 -51.5 285 52 27 7.1 3.9 M M M M M
30000 -42.1 -43.8 285 46 24 7.5 4.1 33.2 91.7 6.1 M M
29000 -39.9 -39.8 285 45 23 7.5 4.1 32.2 90.0 5.5 M M
28000 -37.6 -35.7 285 43 22 7.5 4.1 31.4 88.5 4.9 M M
27000 -35.4 -31.7 280 41 21 7.7 4.2 30.6 87.2 4.4 M M
26000 -33.1 -27.6 280 40 21 7.8 4.3 29.8 85.6 3.7 M M
25000 -30.8 -23.4 280 38 20 7.8 4.3 29.0 84.3 3.2 M M
24000 -28.4 -19.1 285 37 19 7.8 4.3 28.4 83.2 2.7 M M
23000 -26.1 -15.0 285 35 18 7.9 4.3 27.6 81.8 2.1 M M
22000 -23.7 -10.7 285 33 17 7.9 4.3 27.0 80.6 1.6 M M
21000 -21.4 -6.5 285 32 16 7.8 4.3 26.4 79.5 1.1 M M
20000 -19.0 -2.2 285 31 16 7.8 4.3 25.7 78.2 0.4 M M
19500 -17.3 0.9 290 30 16 7.8 4.3 25.2 77.3 -0.0 1284 6.5
19000 -16.1 3.0 290 30 15 7.9 4.3 24.9 76.8 -0.3 1235 6.3
18500 -15.0 5.0 290 30 15 7.5 4.1 24.5 76.1 -0.6 1186 6.0
18000 -13.9 7.0 290 30 16 7.5 4.1 24.1 75.4 -0.9 1137 5.8
17500 -12.7 9.1 295 31 16 7.6 4.2 23.8 74.8 -1.3 1089 5.5
17000 -11.6 11.1 295 32 16 7.7 4.2 23.4 74.1 -1.6 1040 5.3
16500 -10.4 13.3 295 33 17 7.7 4.2 23.1 73.5 -1.9 991 5.0
16000 -9.3 15.3 295 34 17 7.4 4.0 22.7 72.8 -2.3 942 4.8
15500 -8.2 17.2 295 35 18 7.4 4.1 22.3 72.1 -2.6 894 4.5
15000 -7.1 19.2 295 36 18 7.5 4.1 21.9 71.4 -3.0 847 4.3
14500 -6.0 21.2 295 36 19 7.5 4.1 21.5 70.8 -3.4 798 4.1
14000 -4.9 23.2 295 37 19 7.5 4.1 21.2 70.1 -3.7 750 3.8
13500 -3.8 25.2 295 38 19 7.5 4.1 20.8 69.4 -4.1 702 3.6
13000 -2.6 27.3 295 38 20 7.6 4.2 20.4 68.8 -4.5 653 3.3
12500 -1.5 29.3 290 38 20 7.8 4.3 20.1 68.2 -4.8 604 3.1
12000 -0.3 31.5 290 38 20 7.8 4.3 19.8 67.6 -5.1 555 2.8
11500 0.9 33.6 290 38 20 8.0 4.4 19.5 67.1 -5.4 504 2.6
11000 2.0 35.6 290 38 19 7.7 4.2 19.2 66.6 -5.7 454 2.3
10500 3.1 37.6 285 36 18 6.8 3.7 18.8 65.9 -6.1 407 2.1
10250 3.7 38.7 285 35 18 8.5 4.7 18.6 65.6 -6.3 383 1.9
10000 4.4 39.9 285 34 18 9.8 5.4 18.6 65.5 -6.4 354 1.8
9750 5.0 41.0 285 34 18 8.7 4.8 18.6 65.5 -6.4 327 1.7
9500 5.7 42.3 285 34 18 8.6 4.7 18.5 65.3 -6.6 300 1.5
9250 6.3 43.3 285 34 18 8.6 4.7 18.4 65.1 -6.7 274 1.4
9000 6.9 44.4 280 34 17 8.3 4.5 18.3 65.0 -6.8 248 1.3
8750 7.6 45.7 280 33 17 8.3 4.5 18.2 64.7 -6.9 222 1.1
8500 8.2 46.8 280 32 16 8.4 4.6 18.1 64.5 -7.1 196 1.0
8250 8.8 47.8 280 31 16 8.4 4.6 18.0 64.4 -7.2 170 0.9
8000 9.4 48.9 275 31 16 8.1 4.4 17.9 64.2 -7.3 144 0.7
7750 10.0 50.0 275 30 15 7.4 4.1 17.7 63.9 -7.5 119 0.6
7500 10.5 50.9 275 28 14 7.5 4.1 17.5 63.6 -7.7 96 0.5
7250 11.1 52.0 270 26 13 7.0 3.8 17.4 63.2 -7.9 72 0.4
7000 11.6 52.9 270 25 13 6.0 3.3 17.1 62.8 -8.2 50 0.3
6750 12.0 53.6 270 23 12 6.2 3.4 16.8 62.3 -8.5 29 0.1
6500 12.5 54.5 265 20 10 7.5 4.1 16.6 61.8 -8.7 7 0.0
6250 13.0 55.4 260 17 9 2.7 1.5 16.3 61.4 -9.0 M M
6000 12.9 55.2 250 15 8 -1.6 -0.9 15.5 59.9 -9.8 M M
5750 12.8 55.0 245 13 7 -0.5 -0.3 14.7 58.5 -10.7 M M
5500 12.4 54.3 230 11 6 -16.6 -9.1 13.6 56.4 -11.9 M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
03/14/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 03/14/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.0
CINH... -0.2 K INDEX... +4.0 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +7.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -62.1 -79.8 290 65 34 -0.8 -0.4 | -61.1 -78.0 285 62 32 -1.6 -0.9
45000 -63.4 -82.1 285 82 42 -0.3 -0.2 | -63.6 -82.5 275 87 45 -1.1 -0.6
40000 -62.7 -80.9 285 73 38 0.5 0.3 | -63.2 -81.8 275 72 37 0.3 0.2
38000 -60.2 -76.4 285 68 35 7.2 4.0 | -60.8 -77.4 275 64 33 7.4 4.1
36000 -55.9 -68.6 280 60 31 7.2 4.0 | -56.3 -69.3 270 55 28 7.4 4.1
34000 -50.9 -59.6 280 52 27 7.7 4.2 | -51.2 -60.2 265 47 24 8.1 4.4
32000 -46.3 -51.3 275 46 24 7.7 4.2 | -46.4 -51.5 270 42 22 8.1 4.4
30000 -41.8 -43.2 275 41 21 7.4 4.1 | -41.6 -42.9 270 40 20 7.9 4.3
29000 -39.6 -39.3 275 40 21 7.4 4.1 | -39.2 -38.6 270 40 21 7.9 4.3
28000 -37.3 -35.1 280 40 20 7.4 4.1 | -36.8 -34.2 275 41 21 7.9 4.3
27000 -35.1 -31.2 280 39 20 7.7 4.2 | -34.5 -30.1 275 41 21 7.8 4.3
26000 -32.8 -27.0 280 39 20 7.8 4.3 | -32.2 -26.0 275 43 22 7.7 4.2
25000 -30.4 -22.7 285 40 21 7.8 4.3 | -29.9 -21.8 280 45 23 7.7 4.2
24000 -28.1 -18.6 285 41 21 7.9 4.3 | -27.6 -17.7 280 46 24 7.6 4.2
23000 -25.7 -14.3 285 41 21 8.0 4.4 | -25.4 -13.7 280 48 25 7.4 4.1
22000 -23.3 -9.9 290 42 21 8.0 4.4 | -23.1 -9.6 280 49 25 7.4 4.1
21000 -21.0 -5.8 290 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -21.0 -5.8 280 51 26 7.1 3.9
20000 -18.7 -1.7 290 42 22 7.6 4.2 | -18.9 -2.0 280 51 26 6.9 3.8
19500 -17.6 0.3 290 42 22 7.6 4.2 | -17.9 -0.2 280 52 27 6.9 3.8
19000 -15.8 3.6 290 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -16.3 2.7 280 52 27 6.9 3.8
18500 -14.7 5.5 290 42 22 7.0 3.8 | -15.3 4.5 280 52 27 6.9 3.8
18000 -13.7 7.3 290 42 22 7.0 3.8 | -14.3 6.3 280 52 27 6.9 3.8
17500 -12.7 9.1 290 42 22 6.9 3.8 | -13.3 8.1 280 52 27 6.9 3.8
17000 -11.6 11.1 290 43 22 6.9 3.8 | -12.2 10.0 280 51 26 7.0 3.8
16500 -10.6 12.9 290 43 22 6.9 3.8 | -11.2 11.8 275 50 26 6.9 3.8
16000 -9.6 14.7 285 43 22 7.0 3.8 | -10.1 13.8 275 49 25 7.8 4.3
15500 -8.5 16.7 285 43 22 6.9 3.8 | -8.9 16.0 275 47 24 7.7 4.2
15000 -7.5 18.5 285 43 22 7.3 4.0 | -7.8 18.0 275 46 24 8.1 4.5
14500 -6.4 20.5 285 42 22 7.4 4.1 | -6.5 20.3 275 44 23 8.3 4.5
14000 -5.3 22.5 285 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -5.3 22.5 275 43 22 8.4 4.6
13500 -4.1 24.6 280 41 21 7.8 4.3 | -4.1 24.6 270 41 21 8.5 4.7
13000 -2.9 26.8 280 40 21 7.9 4.3 | -2.8 27.0 270 39 20 8.6 4.7
12500 -1.7 28.9 280 39 20 8.0 4.4 | -1.5 29.3 270 37 19 8.8 4.8
12000 -0.5 31.1 280 38 20 8.1 4.4 | -0.2 31.6 270 35 18 8.8 4.8
11500 0.7 33.3 280 37 19 8.2 4.5 | 1.1 34.0 270 33 17 9.0 4.9
11000 1.9 35.4 280 35 18 8.0 4.4 | 2.5 36.5 265 30 16 8.9 4.9
10500 3.0 37.4 280 34 17 7.3 4.0 | 3.8 38.8 265 28 14 8.4 4.6
10250 3.6 38.5 280 33 17 9.0 4.9 | 4.4 39.9 265 26 13 9.5 5.2
10000 4.4 39.9 275 32 16 10.1 5.6 | 5.2 41.4 265 25 13 10.6 5.8
9750 5.1 41.2 275 30 16 8.8 4.8 | 5.9 42.6 265 24 13 9.7 5.3
9500 5.7 42.3 275 29 15 8.5 4.7 | 6.7 44.1 260 23 12 9.5 5.2
9250 6.3 43.3 275 28 14 8.6 4.7 | 7.4 45.3 260 21 11 9.4 5.2
9000 7.0 44.6 270 27 14 8.7 4.8 | 8.0 46.4 260 20 11 8.7 4.8
8750 7.6 45.7 270 26 13 8.7 4.8 | 8.7 47.7 260 20 10 8.8 4.8
8500 8.3 46.9 270 25 13 8.6 4.7 | 9.4 48.9 255 19 10 9.4 5.1
8250 8.9 48.0 265 24 12 8.6 4.7 | 10.1 50.2 255 18 9 9.0 4.9
8000 9.5 49.1 265 23 12 8.2 4.5 | 10.8 51.4 255 17 9 10.0 5.5
7750 10.1 50.2 265 22 11 7.8 4.3 | 11.5 52.7 250 15 8 9.6 5.3
7500 10.7 51.3 260 21 11 8.1 4.4 | 12.2 54.0 250 15 8 8.4 4.6
7250 11.3 52.3 255 20 10 7.6 4.2 | 12.8 55.0 245 14 7 8.7 4.8
7000 11.8 53.2 250 19 10 6.5 3.6 | 13.4 56.1 240 13 7 8.2 4.5
6750 12.3 54.1 250 19 10 6.0 3.3 | 14.1 57.4 240 12 6 8.9 4.9
6500 12.8 55.0 240 18 9 7.3 4.0 | 14.8 58.6 235 11 6 9.5 5.2
6250 13.2 55.8 235 17 9 3.1 1.7 | 15.4 59.7 230 11 5 9.7 5.3
6000 13.2 55.8 230 17 9 -0.9 -0.5 | 16.2 61.2 230 10 5 10.9 6.0
5750 13.2 55.8 225 16 8 -1.2 -0.7 | 17.0 62.6 230 9 5 9.4 5.1
5500 12.8 55.0 220 13 7 -8.6 -4.7 | 17.7 63.9 230 9 4 11.3 6.2
03/14/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 03/14/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.9 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.1
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... +10.0 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +8.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -60.3 -76.5 280 56 29 -1.2 -0.6 | -58.7 -73.7 280 52 27 -1.8 -1.0
45000 -62.1 -79.8 270 90 46 -1.1 -0.6 | -61.6 -78.9 270 86 44 -1.8 -1.0
40000 -63.4 -82.1 270 77 40 -0.8 -0.4 | -61.4 -78.5 270 75 39 0.2 0.1
38000 -61.4 -78.5 270 71 37 7.7 4.2 | -60.1 -76.2 265 72 37 5.0 2.7
36000 -56.8 -70.2 270 66 34 7.7 4.2 | -57.1 -70.8 265 71 37 4.9 2.7
34000 -52.1 -61.8 270 61 32 8.3 4.6 | -54.0 -65.2 265 70 36 7.6 4.2
32000 -47.2 -53.0 270 57 29 8.3 4.5 | -49.3 -56.7 265 62 32 7.8 4.3
30000 -41.7 -43.1 270 53 27 8.0 4.4 | -44.0 -47.2 265 54 28 8.6 4.7
29000 -39.3 -38.7 270 51 26 7.9 4.4 | -41.4 -42.5 270 51 26 8.7 4.8
28000 -36.9 -34.4 270 50 26 7.9 4.4 | -38.8 -37.8 270 48 25 8.7 4.8
27000 -34.6 -30.3 270 49 25 7.7 4.2 | -36.2 -33.2 270 45 23 8.6 4.7
26000 -32.4 -26.3 275 49 25 7.4 4.1 | -33.7 -28.7 275 45 23 8.3 4.6
25000 -30.1 -22.2 275 50 26 7.4 4.1 | -31.2 -24.2 275 44 23 8.3 4.6
24000 -27.9 -18.2 275 50 26 7.4 4.1 | -28.7 -19.7 280 43 22 8.3 4.6
23000 -25.8 -14.4 275 51 26 7.1 3.9 | -26.3 -15.3 280 44 23 8.1 4.4
22000 -23.7 -10.7 275 52 27 7.1 3.9 | -23.9 -11.0 280 45 23 8.1 4.4
21000 -21.5 -6.7 275 53 27 7.1 3.9 | -21.5 -6.7 280 47 24 8.0 4.4
20000 -19.4 -2.9 275 53 27 7.1 3.9 | -19.2 -2.6 280 48 25 7.8 4.3
19500 -18.4 -1.1 275 53 27 7.1 3.9 | -18.1 -0.6 280 49 25 7.8 4.3
19000 -17.3 0.9 275 53 27 7.2 3.9 | -16.9 1.6 280 49 25 7.8 4.3
18500 -16.2 2.8 275 53 27 7.2 4.0 | -15.8 3.6 280 50 26 7.8 4.3
18000 -14.6 5.7 275 52 27 7.5 4.1 | -14.1 6.6 280 51 26 7.6 4.2
17500 -13.5 7.7 275 51 26 7.5 4.1 | -12.9 8.8 280 51 26 7.6 4.2
17000 -12.4 9.7 275 51 26 7.8 4.3 | -11.8 10.8 280 51 26 7.3 4.0
16500 -11.2 11.8 275 50 26 7.7 4.3 | -10.7 12.7 280 51 26 7.3 4.0
16000 -10.0 14.0 270 49 25 8.0 4.4 | -9.7 14.5 275 51 26 7.4 4.1
15500 -8.8 16.2 270 48 25 8.0 4.4 | -8.6 16.5 275 51 26 7.4 4.1
15000 -7.6 18.3 270 47 24 8.3 4.6 | -7.5 18.5 275 51 26 7.4 4.1
14500 -6.4 20.5 270 46 24 8.5 4.7 | -6.4 20.5 275 51 26 7.4 4.1
14000 -5.1 22.8 270 44 23 8.6 4.7 | -5.3 22.5 275 51 26 7.4 4.1
13500 -3.8 25.2 270 42 22 8.8 4.8 | -4.2 24.4 270 50 26 7.5 4.1
13000 -2.5 27.5 270 41 21 8.9 4.9 | -3.1 26.4 270 50 26 7.5 4.1
12500 -1.1 30.0 270 38 20 9.2 5.0 | -1.9 28.6 270 49 25 8.0 4.4
12000 0.2 32.4 270 36 19 9.2 5.0 | -0.8 30.6 270 48 25 7.8 4.3
11500 1.6 34.9 265 34 18 9.7 5.3 | 0.5 32.9 270 47 24 8.6 4.7
11000 3.1 37.6 265 33 17 9.6 5.3 | 1.7 35.1 270 46 24 8.5 4.7
10500 4.5 40.1 265 30 16 8.7 4.8 | 3.0 37.4 270 44 23 8.3 4.6
10250 5.1 41.2 265 29 15 9.9 5.4 | 3.6 38.5 270 44 22 9.0 5.0
10000 5.9 42.6 265 29 15 10.9 6.0 | 4.3 39.7 270 43 22 9.6 5.3
9750 6.7 44.1 265 28 15 10.3 5.7 | 5.0 41.0 270 43 22 10.0 5.5
9500 7.5 45.5 265 27 14 10.2 5.6 | 5.8 42.4 270 42 21 10.6 5.8
9250 8.3 46.9 265 26 13 10.1 5.5 | 6.6 43.9 270 41 21 10.3 5.7
9000 9.0 48.2 265 26 13 9.4 5.2 | 7.3 45.1 270 40 21 8.6 4.7
8750 9.7 49.5 265 26 13 9.8 5.4 | 7.9 46.2 270 40 20 9.1 5.0
8500 10.4 50.7 265 24 13 10.2 5.6 | 8.7 47.7 270 39 20 10.5 5.8
8250 11.2 52.2 265 23 12 10.3 5.7 | 9.5 49.1 270 38 20 10.5 5.8
8000 12.0 53.6 265 22 12 9.3 5.1 | 10.2 50.4 275 37 19 8.9 4.9
7750 12.6 54.7 265 23 12 9.2 5.1 | 10.8 51.4 270 36 19 8.7 4.8
7500 13.4 56.1 265 22 11 10.0 5.5 | 11.6 52.9 275 35 18 10.2 5.6
7250 14.1 57.4 265 21 11 10.1 5.5 | 12.3 54.1 275 34 18 10.0 5.5
7000 14.8 58.6 265 21 11 9.0 5.0 | 13.1 55.6 275 33 17 9.4 5.1
6750 15.5 59.9 265 19 10 9.6 5.2 | 13.7 56.7 275 33 17 9.6 5.3
6500 16.3 61.3 265 19 10 11.1 6.1 | 14.5 58.1 275 31 16 10.5 5.8
6250 17.1 62.8 265 18 9 10.7 5.9 | 15.3 59.5 275 29 15 10.3 5.6
6000 17.9 64.2 265 17 9 10.3 5.7 | 16.0 60.8 275 27 14 10.4 5.7
5750 18.7 65.7 265 16 8 14.2 7.8 | 16.8 62.2 275 25 13 10.5 5.8
5500 20.1 68.2 265 14 7 21.9 12.0 | 17.6 63.7 275 21 11 10.5 5.8
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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