506
FXUS65 KBOU 142011
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
211 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY, WITH
ELEVATED CONCERNS IN OUR HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. GUSTS 30-60 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NEAR THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
GUST UP TO 70 MPH BETWEEN 3 PM AND 6 PM.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS INTO SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS FROM 55 TO 65 MPH MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- IN THE MOUNTAINS, A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ON THE PASSES INTO
EARLY SUNDAY.
- RAPID WARMING BEGINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY
CULMINATING IN RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE GUSTING AROUND 50 TO 75MPH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVER THE AREA AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MODELS ARE SHOWING STRONGER WINDS MOVING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND
PUSHING TOWARDS THE EASTERN BOARDERS OF BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 3 AND 6PM. THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 60 TO 75MPH IN THE PLAINS OF BOULDER, JEFFERSON,
AND LARIMER COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
A FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND 11PM
(GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR), AND EXIT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY 3AM. AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WE'LL SEE A WIND SHIFT AND STRONG NORTH
WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING AROUND 55 TO 70MPH WITH THE ORIGINAL
PASSAGE AND THEN LOWERING CLOSER TO THE 40 TO 65MPH RANGE FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE MORE RECENT
MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH,
WHICH MEANS THOSE STRONG 700MB WINDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA A
FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING. SO, OUR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS MAY TAPER OFF A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PLANNED, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30 TO 50MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH COLDER, DROPPING 40+
DEGREES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW 30S,
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING AT OR BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.
NOW FOR OUR WINTER WEATHER CHANCES. WE'LL HAVE A FEW THINGS
HELPING OUR PRECIP CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIFT FROM THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET, FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT, AND
UPSLOPE FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE THINGS THAT
WILL HINDER OUR PRECIP AMOUNTS, ARE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE
QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS EVENT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START IN
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO MID MORNING
TOMORROW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING SUNDAY, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY
REACHING THE 2 TO 3 IN/HR RANGE. STRONG WINDS, HEAVY SNOW RATES,
AND SOME SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL COULD LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AND VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW. ACROSS THE PLAINS, PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OFF AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX, UNTIL TEMPERATURES COOL SUFFICIENTLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALLOWING IT TO TURN TO SNOW. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A
TENTH OF LIQUID AND UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE IN THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA, WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
HELP INCREASE SNOW TOTALS. THE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THE PLAINS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW, LOW VISIBILITIES, AND
DIFFICULT TRAVEL UNDER ANY SNOW BANDS THAT DEVELOP. SNOW CHANCES
WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING, LEAVING THE REST OF THE FORECAST
MOSTLY DRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING OUR QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AND
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST, A STRONG RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SIT OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
PEAK PRESSURE OF AROUND 594DM AT 500MB. AREAS TO OUR SOUTHWEST
ARE GOING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAT, BUT WE WILL NOT COME AWAY
UNSCATHED. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM STARTING MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS JUMPING FROM THE LOW 30S ON SUNDAY TO THE 70S BY TUESDAY.
THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES (ABOVE AND BELOW)
OF THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE EVEN HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (>80%) THAT DENVER WILL BREAK
ITS ALL TIME RECORD HIGH FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SET AT 84 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WINDS ARE WANTING TO STAY MORE DUE SOUTHERLY AND WEAKER AT DIA THE
LAST COUPLE HOURS COMPARED TO WHAT THE NUMEROUS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING. WILL LEAVE THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GOING AFTER 19Z AS
WELL AS THE EVEN STRONGER WESTERLIES IN THE TEMPO. MAY STILL NEED
TO PUT SOME BLOWING DUST IN AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON; WE'LL
SEE. TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT STILL ARRIVES ABOUT 05Z/06Z. THE CEILINGS
DOWN TO 040BKN- OVC STILL LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT ACCORDING TO
CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS. NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH PRECIPITATION
SO WILL LEAVE THE 3-4SM -SHRASN/-SHSN IN THERE AS WELL. ON SUNDAY,
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALL DAY AND THERE
SHOULDN'T BE ANY CEILING ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
LIKELY PEAKING SOMEWHERE IN THE 3PM TO 6PM TIME FRAME. WIND GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 35 TO 55MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
PLAINS, WITH THE PLAINS ADJACENT TO THE FOOTHILLS POTENTIALLY
REACHING CLOSER TO 60 OR 70 MPH AT TIMES. RHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING
AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNSET,
BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS EVENING. OUR RFW IS SET
TO EXPIRE AT 8PM, ONCE RHS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT, BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH WINDS. RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, KEEPING RHS ABOVE 20% FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
LOWER FOR TOMORROW, EVEN WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WE ALSO HAVE
A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS AS
WELL.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT
SUNDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238>251.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ040>051.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...66
FIRE WEATHER...AP
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