981
FXUS65 KBOU 150409
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1009 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT, WITH THE COLD
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL IMPACT THE
PLAINS.
- IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW SQUALLS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR MANY OF THE
PRIMARY TRAVEL CORRIDORS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE.
- SAVE FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY, A STEADY WARMING
AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
- WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD-BREAKING
MARCH HEAT BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHINOOK WINDS IS COMING TO AN END AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT, LOCATED NEAR CHUGWATER WY AS OF 0930 PM MDT,
RIPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE FORT COLLINS
AREA NEAR 1130 PM, AND DENVER CLOSER TO 1 AM MDT. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE DROP OF AROUND 15 DEGREES IN 30 MINUTES CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING SHORTLY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WITH GUSTS 35-55 MPH IMPACTING ALL
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BEHIND IT, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE A SHORT WINDOW OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH WITH HOW QUICKLY THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. FOR THE MOST
PART, THE I-25 CORRIDOR STANDS TO SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH,
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY
FROM DENVER SOUTH AND MAINLY INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MORE
CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE, WHEN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY INTENSE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDING
WITH STRONG WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AT TIMES, BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN TRAVEL
CORRIDORS. SNOW WILL HAVE LARGELY TAPERED OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY,
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY REGIONWIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY
SLIGHTLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE
PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN STEADY AND RATHER STRONG, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR, GUSTING 50-55 MPH, AND POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 70 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 PLAINS CORRIDOR. A WINDOW OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITY LOWERS TO NEAR 25%, WITH THE LOCATIONS OF
CONCERN DELINEATED BY THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE/NO SNOW
EARLY THIS MORNING (MORE LIKELY FOR THE RURAL PLAINS). SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK, AS LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20'S FOR THE PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR RESPECTIVELY, AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES.
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH
APPROXIMATELY 15-20 DEGREES OF WARMING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LIMITED
TO NO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESURFACE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS RETURN,
UNDER CONTINUED WARMING. SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW DRY WE GET,
AND THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUCH CONDITIONS, BUT OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES APPEARS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE.
AS WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SOME TIME NOW, HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND. WE'RE STILL A WAYS OUT TO BE ABLE
TO IRON OUT THE FINER DETAILS (EXACT HIGHS, LIKELIHOOD OF
REACHING/EXCEEDING MONTHLY RECORDS, AND EXACT TIMING OF THE PEAK
OF THE HEAT), BUT A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 80F
DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FINALLY SETTLED INTO A MORE CONSISTENT
W/WNW FLOW AT THE TERMINALS, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHANCE FOR
BJC TO SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF STRONGER (40-45KT) GUSTS AS A
RIBBON OF STRONGER WINDS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH OFF THE FOOTHILLS.
WINDS WILL AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET, BUT A COLD
FRONT SHOULD RAMP UP WINDS YET AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING A PUFF OF WINDS OFF BETWEEN ABOUT 03-05Z,
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONT/WIND SHIFT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 07-09Z.
THAT LATTER OF THESE TWO PUSHES OF WIND SHOULD USHER IN SOME LOWER
CIGS (POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS A BKN010-020) ALONG WITH A BAND OF
RA/SN THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT (LESS THAN AN INCH).
NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY,
WITH A PERSISTENT CLOUD DECK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ABOUT 050-080.
SOME GUIDANCE IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING THE STRATO-CU DECK
CLOSER TO A BKN-OVC050, AND THE FORECAST WAS NUDGED A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THAT. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ040>051.
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...HIRIS
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