495
FXUS65 KBOU 151129
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
529 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING OVER THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS.
- IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
- SAVE FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY, A STEADY WARMING
AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
- WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD-BREAKING
MARCH HEAT BY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE OUT
TOWARDS THE LIMON AREA. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A GRADUALLY END TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNRISE AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MTN AREAS WILL STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THRU
THE DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER PASSES.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, LATEST DATA SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THRU
NOON AND THEN DECREASE THIS AFTN.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHINOOK WINDS IS COMING TO AN END AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT, LOCATED NEAR CHUGWATER WY AS OF 0930 PM MDT,
RIPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE FORT COLLINS
AREA NEAR 1130 PM, AND DENVER CLOSER TO 1 AM MDT. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE DROP OF AROUND 15 DEGREES IN 30 MINUTES CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING SHORTLY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WITH GUSTS 35-55 MPH IMPACTING ALL
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BEHIND IT, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE A SHORT WINDOW OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH WITH HOW QUICKLY THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. FOR THE MOST
PART, THE I-25 CORRIDOR STANDS TO SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH,
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY
FROM DENVER SOUTH AND MAINLY INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MORE
CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE, WHEN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY INTENSE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDING
WITH STRONG WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AT TIMES, BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN TRAVEL
CORRIDORS. SNOW WILL HAVE LARGELY TAPERED OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY,
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY REGIONWIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY
SLIGHTLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE
PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN STEADY AND RATHER STRONG, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR, GUSTING 50-55 MPH, AND POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 70 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 PLAINS CORRIDOR. A WINDOW OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITY LOWERS TO NEAR 25%, WITH THE LOCATIONS OF
CONCERN DELINEATED BY THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE/NO SNOW
EARLY THIS MORNING (MORE LIKELY FOR THE RURAL PLAINS). SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK, AS LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20'S FOR THE PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR RESPECTIVELY, AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES.
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH
APPROXIMATELY 15-20 DEGREES OF WARMING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LIMITED
TO NO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESURFACE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS RETURN,
UNDER CONTINUED WARMING. SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW DRY WE GET,
AND THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUCH CONDITIONS, BUT OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES APPEARS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE.
AS WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SOME TIME NOW, HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND. WE'RE STILL A WAYS OUT TO BE ABLE
TO IRON OUT THE FINER DETAILS (EXACT HIGHS, LIKELIHOOD OF
REACHING/EXCEEDING MONTHLY RECORDS, AND EXACT TIMING OF THE PEAK
OF THE HEAT), BUT A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 80F
DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LIGHT SNOW HAD ENDED AT BJC AND DIA BUT CONTINUES AT APA. APA
SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW END BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. CEILINGS WERE
IMPROVING AT BJC AND DIA AND SHOULD RISE ABOVE MVFR AT APA
BY 14Z. WINDS HAVE DECREASED EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
THEM TO INCREASE BY 13Z OR 14Z WITH GUSTS FROM 40 TO 45 MPH
AT TIMES THRU 18Z. THIS AFTN WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MORE IN THE
30 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND THEN DECREASE TO 25 MPH OR SO BY 22Z.
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH BUT WILL BECOME NE
AFTER 22Z WITH LIGHTER WINDS BY 01Z. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT DRAINAGE BY 05Z. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CEILINGS LATER THIS
MORNING THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FT.
THESE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY 05Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ031-
033-034.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ040>051.
UPDATE...RPK
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...RPK
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