704
UXUS97 KBOU 151316
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
0715 MDT SUNDAY, MARCH 15, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SUNDAY, MARCH 15, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 29.3 F/-1.5 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... FAIR
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 404 FT/MIN (2.1 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 11013 FT MSL (5655 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 34.0 F/1.6 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1145 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ BETWEEN 20 MPH AND 30 MPH
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 8980 FT MSL (3622 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 03/16....... FAIR
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 26471 FT MSL (21113 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY 03/16.......... POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:10:17 / 19:06:16 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 11 HR 55 MIN 59 SEC (715 MIN 59 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:08:17 MDT... 48.28 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 03/15/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. ENTIRE AIRMASS BELOW 32 F / 0 C
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 9875 FT MSL (4517 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 10697 FT MSL (5339 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +10.0
K INDEX......................... +5.5
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.6 -66.3 295 46 24 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
45000 -51.4 -60.5 295 53 27 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
40000 -48.4 -55.1 300 53 28 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
38000 -47.2 -53.0 300 55 28 1.3 0.7 M M M M M
36000 -46.4 -51.5 305 64 33 1.4 0.8 M M M M M
34000 -45.6 -50.1 310 73 38 1.4 0.8 M M M M M
32000 -44.3 -47.7 310 79 41 2.5 1.4 M M M M M
30000 -42.6 -44.7 310 83 43 2.5 1.4 M M M M M
29000 -42.0 -43.6 310 85 44 1.6 0.9 34.2 93.5 24.9 M M
28000 -41.5 -42.7 310 87 45 1.6 0.9 30.8 87.5 22.6 M M
27000 -41.0 -41.8 310 89 46 1.6 0.9 27.7 81.8 20.5 M M
26000 -40.5 -40.9 310 91 47 2.3 1.3 24.7 76.5 18.4 M M
25000 -39.7 -39.5 310 89 46 3.0 1.6 22.0 71.6 16.5 M M
24000 -38.8 -37.8 305 86 44 3.0 1.6 19.4 67.0 14.7 M M
23000 -37.9 -36.2 305 84 43 2.9 1.6 17.1 62.7 12.9 M M
22000 -37.0 -34.6 300 77 40 2.7 1.5 14.4 57.9 10.9 M M
21000 -36.2 -33.2 300 71 36 2.7 1.5 11.9 53.4 8.9 M M
20000 -35.2 -31.4 295 65 34 6.3 3.4 9.7 49.5 7.2 M M
19500 -34.3 -29.7 295 63 32 6.1 3.4 9.0 48.2 6.7 M M
19000 -33.4 -28.1 295 60 31 6.1 3.3 8.3 47.0 6.1 M M
18500 -32.5 -26.5 295 58 30 6.1 3.3 7.7 45.9 5.6 M M
18000 -31.1 -24.0 295 55 28 7.3 4.0 6.8 44.3 4.9 M M
17500 -29.9 -21.8 295 53 27 8.3 4.6 6.6 43.9 4.7 M M
17000 -28.6 -19.5 295 52 27 8.4 4.6 6.4 43.5 4.5 M M
16500 -27.3 -17.1 290 51 26 8.8 4.8 6.2 43.1 4.4 M M
16000 -26.0 -14.8 290 50 26 8.8 4.9 6.0 42.8 4.2 M M
15500 -24.8 -12.6 290 48 25 8.0 4.4 5.8 42.4 4.1 M M
15000 -23.6 -10.5 290 46 24 8.0 4.4 5.5 41.9 3.8 M M
14500 -22.4 -8.3 290 44 23 7.5 4.1 5.2 41.3 3.5 M M
14000 -21.4 -6.5 295 41 21 7.4 4.1 4.8 40.6 3.2 M M
13500 -20.3 -4.5 300 38 20 6.8 3.7 4.4 39.9 2.8 M M
13000 -19.3 -2.7 305 35 18 6.6 3.6 3.9 38.9 2.3 M M
12500 -18.4 -1.1 310 32 17 6.1 3.3 3.3 38.0 1.8 M M
12000 -17.5 0.5 315 30 16 5.9 3.2 2.7 36.8 1.2 M M
11500 -16.6 2.1 325 29 15 5.5 3.0 2.1 35.7 0.7 M M
11000 -15.8 3.6 335 30 15 5.5 3.0 1.3 34.4 -0.0 403 2.0
10500 -15.1 4.8 340 31 16 3.6 2.0 0.6 33.0 -0.8 367 1.9
10250 -14.9 5.2 345 33 17 2.6 1.5 0.0 32.1 -1.3 353 1.8
10000 -14.7 5.5 350 34 17 4.8 2.6 -0.5 31.1 -1.8 339 1.7
9750 -14.2 6.4 350 35 18 7.1 3.9 -0.7 30.7 -2.0 317 1.6
9500 -13.7 7.3 350 36 18 5.9 3.2 -1.0 30.2 -2.3 295 1.5
9250 -13.3 8.1 355 37 19 5.8 3.2 -1.3 29.6 -2.6 275 1.4
9000 -12.9 8.8 355 38 19 4.4 2.4 -1.6 29.1 -2.9 255 1.3
8750 -12.6 9.3 355 39 20 6.0 3.3 -2.1 28.3 -3.3 238 1.2
8500 -12.0 10.4 360 38 20 8.7 4.7 -2.2 28.1 -3.5 213 1.1
8250 -11.4 11.5 360 38 19 8.2 4.5 -2.3 27.8 -3.6 188 1.0
8000 -10.8 12.6 360 37 19 7.5 4.1 -2.4 27.6 -3.7 162 0.8
7750 -10.2 13.6 360 37 19 8.0 4.4 -2.6 27.3 -3.9 139 0.7
7500 -9.6 14.7 360 36 18 9.6 5.2 -2.7 27.2 -4.0 111 0.6
7250 -8.9 16.0 360 34 18 9.2 5.1 -2.7 27.1 -4.1 83 0.4
7000 -8.2 17.2 005 34 17 7.9 4.3 -2.8 27.0 -4.1 56 0.3
6750 -7.6 18.3 005 34 17 9.0 4.9 -2.9 26.7 -4.3 32 0.2
6500 -6.9 19.6 005 32 16 11.0 6.0 -2.9 26.8 -4.3 1 0.0
6250 -6.1 21.0 005 29 15 10.4 5.7 -2.8 27.0 -4.2 M M
6000 -5.3 22.5 005 28 15 10.2 5.6 -2.8 27.0 -4.2 M M
5750 -4.6 23.7 005 27 14 9.7 5.3 -2.7 27.1 -4.2 M M
5500 -3.9 25.0 005 23 12 9.4 5.2 -2.8 27.0 -4.2 M M
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
03/15/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 03/15/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +0.3 LI... +4.1 | CAPE... +3.1 LI... +5.0
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... -0.6 | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... -3.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.3 -65.7 295 42 21 3.0 1.6 | -53.9 -65.0 300 41 21 2.9 1.6
45000 -49.6 -57.3 300 52 27 3.0 1.6 | -49.3 -56.7 305 56 29 2.8 1.6
40000 -47.9 -54.2 310 61 31 1.0 0.5 | -48.7 -55.7 315 67 34 0.2 0.1
38000 -47.3 -53.1 310 65 34 0.3 0.2 | -48.6 -55.5 315 72 37 0.1 0.1
36000 -47.1 -52.8 315 75 38 0.3 0.2 | -48.5 -55.3 320 82 42 0.1 0.1
34000 -46.9 -52.4 320 84 43 0.3 0.2 | -48.4 -55.1 325 93 48 0.1 0.1
32000 -45.8 -50.4 320 95 49 2.2 1.2 | -47.4 -53.3 325 104 54 2.1 1.2
30000 -44.5 -48.1 325 104 54 2.3 1.2 | -46.2 -51.2 330 114 59 2.1 1.2
29000 -43.6 -46.5 325 107 55 3.6 2.0 | -44.9 -48.8 330 117 60 5.6 3.1
28000 -42.5 -44.5 325 107 55 3.7 2.0 | -43.2 -45.8 325 117 60 5.7 3.1
27000 -41.4 -42.5 320 108 56 3.7 2.0 | -41.5 -42.7 325 117 60 5.7 3.1
26000 -40.3 -40.5 320 109 56 3.9 2.1 | -39.8 -39.6 325 117 60 5.7 3.1
25000 -39.1 -38.4 320 106 55 4.1 2.2 | -38.1 -36.6 325 114 59 5.7 3.1
24000 -37.9 -36.2 320 103 53 4.1 2.2 | -36.4 -33.5 325 111 57 5.6 3.1
23000 -36.7 -34.1 320 100 52 3.2 1.8 | -34.7 -30.5 320 108 55 3.7 2.0
22000 -36.1 -33.0 320 91 47 1.9 1.0 | -34.2 -29.6 320 99 51 1.8 1.0
21000 -35.5 -31.9 320 81 42 1.8 1.0 | -33.7 -28.7 320 91 47 1.8 1.0
20000 -34.9 -30.8 320 72 37 3.1 1.7 | -33.2 -27.8 320 81 42 0.5 0.3
19500 -34.5 -30.1 320 68 35 3.0 1.7 | -33.1 -27.6 320 76 39 0.7 0.4
19000 -34.0 -29.2 315 63 33 3.0 1.7 | -33.0 -27.4 320 71 36 0.7 0.4
18500 -33.3 -27.9 315 57 30 3.1 1.7 | -32.9 -27.2 315 63 32 0.7 0.4
18000 -32.9 -27.2 310 54 28 4.4 2.4 | -32.8 -27.0 315 58 30 2.3 1.3
17500 -32.0 -25.6 305 50 26 5.5 3.0 | -32.3 -26.1 310 54 28 3.4 1.9
17000 -31.2 -24.2 305 47 24 6.0 3.3 | -31.7 -25.1 310 50 26 4.1 2.2
16500 -30.1 -22.2 305 45 23 8.4 4.6 | -30.9 -23.6 305 47 24 6.7 3.7
16000 -28.9 -20.0 300 43 22 8.2 4.5 | -29.9 -21.8 305 44 23 6.5 3.6
15500 -27.6 -17.7 300 41 21 8.4 4.6 | -28.8 -19.8 300 42 22 7.8 4.3
15000 -26.4 -15.5 300 40 20 8.4 4.6 | -27.7 -17.9 300 40 20 7.7 4.2
14500 -25.2 -13.4 300 38 20 7.6 4.2 | -26.6 -15.9 300 37 19 7.7 4.2
14000 -24.1 -11.4 300 36 18 7.7 4.2 | -25.4 -13.7 300 35 18 7.7 4.2
13500 -23.0 -9.4 305 34 18 7.0 3.8 | -24.3 -11.7 305 33 17 7.2 3.9
13000 -21.9 -7.4 305 33 17 6.9 3.8 | -23.2 -9.8 310 31 16 7.2 3.9
12500 -21.0 -5.8 315 32 16 6.0 3.3 | -22.2 -8.0 315 29 15 7.0 3.8
12000 -20.1 -4.2 320 32 17 5.9 3.3 | -21.2 -6.2 320 28 15 7.0 3.8
11500 -19.2 -2.6 325 33 17 6.1 3.3 | -20.1 -4.2 325 27 14 7.0 3.8
11000 -18.3 -0.9 330 34 18 6.1 3.4 | -19.1 -2.4 330 26 13 7.0 3.8
10500 -17.4 0.7 335 35 18 5.4 3.0 | -17.9 -0.2 340 25 13 8.0 4.4
10250 -17.0 1.4 340 35 18 6.3 3.5 | -17.3 0.9 340 25 13 8.8 4.8
10000 -16.6 2.1 340 36 18 3.2 1.8 | -16.7 1.9 345 24 12 5.3 2.9
9750 -16.4 2.5 340 38 19 4.1 2.2 | -16.4 2.5 345 24 13 7.0 3.8
9500 -15.9 3.4 345 37 19 7.7 4.2 | -15.6 3.9 350 24 13 11.6 6.3
9250 -15.4 4.3 345 36 19 7.1 3.9 | -14.8 5.4 350 24 13 11.0 6.0
9000 -14.9 5.2 350 36 18 6.0 3.3 | -14.0 6.8 350 24 13 8.6 4.7
8750 -14.5 5.9 350 36 19 6.1 3.4 | -13.5 7.7 355 25 13 7.9 4.4
8500 -13.9 7.0 355 36 18 8.1 4.4 | -12.7 9.1 355 25 13 10.6 5.8
8250 -13.3 8.1 355 35 18 8.0 4.4 | -12.0 10.4 355 25 13 9.8 5.4
8000 -12.7 9.1 355 34 18 7.1 3.9 | -11.3 11.7 360 25 13 8.3 4.6
7750 -12.2 10.0 360 34 18 8.0 4.4 | -10.7 12.7 360 26 13 9.2 5.1
7500 -11.5 11.3 360 33 17 10.5 5.8 | -9.9 14.2 360 26 13 11.2 6.1
7250 -10.7 12.7 360 32 16 9.5 5.2 | -9.1 15.6 360 25 13 9.6 5.3
7000 -10.1 13.8 360 32 16 7.4 4.1 | -8.5 16.7 360 26 13 7.5 4.1
6750 -9.5 14.9 360 32 17 10.2 5.6 | -7.8 18.0 005 26 13 10.7 5.9
6500 -8.6 16.5 360 30 16 12.0 6.6 | -6.9 19.6 005 25 13 12.1 6.7
6250 -7.8 18.0 360 29 15 10.5 5.8 | -6.1 21.0 005 24 13 10.6 5.8
6000 -7.0 19.4 005 28 14 9.9 5.5 | -5.3 22.5 005 24 12 9.7 5.3
5750 -6.2 20.8 005 27 14 11.7 6.4 | -4.5 23.9 005 24 12 13.7 7.5
5500 -5.2 22.6 005 23 12 17.0 9.3 | -3.0 26.6 005 21 11 25.4 13.9
03/15/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 03/15/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +5.3 LI... +3.6 | CAPE... +0.5 LI... +4.1
CINH... -0.1 K INDEX... -0.2 | CINH... -0.2 K INDEX... -1.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -54.6 -66.3 310 45 23 2.0 1.1 | -54.8 -66.6 320 52 27 2.0 1.1
45000 -51.5 -60.7 315 63 33 2.0 1.1 | -51.7 -61.1 330 65 34 2.0 1.1
40000 -48.9 -56.0 320 77 40 1.7 0.9 | -50.9 -59.6 330 95 49 0.4 0.2
38000 -48.1 -54.6 320 83 43 -0.8 -0.5 | -50.8 -59.4 330 108 56 -1.6 -0.9
36000 -48.4 -55.1 325 95 49 -0.5 -0.3 | -51.7 -61.1 340 127 65 -1.5 -0.8
34000 -48.8 -55.8 330 108 56 -0.7 -0.4 | -52.7 -62.9 345 151 78 -2.3 -1.2
32000 -47.3 -53.1 335 120 62 3.2 1.8 | -48.8 -55.8 345 158 81 7.5 4.1
30000 -45.3 -49.5 340 132 68 3.2 1.8 | -44.3 -47.7 345 164 84 7.7 4.2
29000 -44.1 -47.4 340 132 68 4.8 2.6 | -41.8 -43.2 345 162 84 8.4 4.6
28000 -42.6 -44.7 335 128 66 4.8 2.7 | -39.3 -38.7 345 160 82 8.4 4.6
27000 -41.2 -42.2 335 124 64 4.8 2.7 | -36.8 -34.2 345 158 81 8.4 4.6
26000 -39.7 -39.5 330 120 62 5.6 3.1 | -34.7 -30.5 345 153 79 2.3 1.3
25000 -38.0 -36.4 330 117 60 5.8 3.2 | -33.8 -28.8 340 144 74 3.0 1.6
24000 -36.2 -33.2 325 113 58 5.8 3.2 | -32.9 -27.2 335 135 69 3.0 1.7
23000 -34.5 -30.1 325 109 56 3.4 1.9 | -32.1 -25.8 335 126 65 1.5 0.8
22000 -34.0 -29.2 325 101 52 1.7 1.0 | -31.7 -25.1 330 115 59 1.1 0.6
21000 -33.5 -28.3 320 92 48 1.7 1.0 | -31.4 -24.5 330 106 54 1.1 0.6
20000 -33.1 -27.6 320 83 43 0.1 0.1 | -31.3 -24.3 325 94 48 -1.0 -0.6
19500 -33.0 -27.4 315 76 39 0.3 0.2 | -31.4 -24.5 325 86 45 -0.9 -0.5
19000 -33.0 -27.4 315 67 34 0.3 0.2 | -31.6 -24.9 320 75 39 -0.9 -0.5
18500 -32.9 -27.2 310 61 31 0.3 0.1 | -31.8 -25.2 315 68 35 -1.1 -0.6
18000 -32.8 -27.0 310 55 28 3.2 1.8 | -31.7 -25.1 315 61 32 2.8 1.5
17500 -32.1 -25.8 305 51 26 4.7 2.6 | -31.2 -24.2 310 56 29 3.8 2.1
17000 -31.4 -24.5 305 47 24 5.5 3.0 | -30.6 -23.1 305 51 26 5.2 2.8
16500 -30.4 -22.7 300 44 23 7.6 4.2 | -29.6 -21.3 305 48 25 7.3 4.0
16000 -29.3 -20.7 300 42 22 7.5 4.1 | -28.5 -19.3 300 45 23 7.4 4.1
15500 -28.1 -18.6 300 39 20 8.5 4.7 | -27.3 -17.1 300 42 22 8.4 4.6
15000 -26.8 -16.2 300 37 19 8.5 4.7 | -26.1 -15.0 300 40 21 8.4 4.6
14500 -25.6 -14.1 305 35 18 7.2 3.9 | -24.9 -12.8 300 38 19 7.2 4.0
14000 -24.6 -12.3 305 33 17 7.3 4.0 | -23.8 -10.8 305 36 18 7.3 4.0
13500 -23.5 -10.3 310 31 16 6.9 3.8 | -22.7 -8.9 305 33 17 7.4 4.1
13000 -22.5 -8.5 315 28 15 6.9 3.8 | -21.6 -6.9 305 31 16 7.4 4.1
12500 -21.4 -6.5 315 26 14 7.3 4.0 | -20.5 -4.9 310 29 15 7.4 4.1
12000 -20.3 -4.5 325 25 13 7.2 4.0 | -19.4 -2.9 315 27 14 7.4 4.1
11500 -19.2 -2.6 330 23 12 8.1 4.4 | -18.3 -0.9 315 25 13 7.4 4.0
11000 -18.0 -0.4 335 22 11 8.0 4.4 | -17.2 1.0 320 23 12 7.4 4.0
10500 -16.8 1.8 340 21 11 8.4 4.6 | -16.1 3.0 325 21 11 7.3 4.0
10250 -16.1 3.0 340 21 11 9.5 5.2 | -15.6 3.9 330 20 10 8.3 4.6
10000 -15.5 4.1 345 21 11 5.3 2.9 | -15.0 5.0 335 20 10 4.5 2.5
9750 -15.2 4.6 345 21 11 6.5 3.6 | -14.8 5.4 335 19 10 5.7 3.1
9500 -14.4 6.1 345 20 11 11.4 6.2 | -14.1 6.6 340 19 10 10.3 5.7
9250 -13.6 7.5 350 20 10 10.7 5.9 | -13.4 7.9 345 18 9 9.4 5.2
9000 -12.9 8.8 350 20 10 8.0 4.4 | -12.7 9.1 350 18 9 6.8 3.7
8750 -12.4 9.7 355 20 11 7.8 4.3 | -12.3 9.9 350 18 9 6.7 3.7
8500 -11.6 11.1 355 20 10 11.2 6.1 | -11.6 11.1 355 18 9 9.8 5.4
8250 -10.8 12.6 355 20 10 10.0 5.5 | -10.9 12.4 360 17 9 8.8 4.8
8000 -10.1 13.8 355 20 10 8.0 4.4 | -10.3 13.5 360 17 9 7.3 4.0
7750 -9.5 14.9 360 20 11 9.4 5.1 | -9.8 14.4 005 18 9 8.5 4.7
7500 -8.7 16.3 360 20 10 11.7 6.4 | -9.0 15.8 010 18 9 10.3 5.6
7250 -7.9 17.8 360 20 10 9.6 5.3 | -8.3 17.1 010 17 9 9.1 5.0
7000 -7.3 18.9 360 20 10 7.1 3.9 | -7.7 18.1 015 18 9 7.5 4.1
6750 -6.7 19.9 005 20 10 10.9 6.0 | -7.1 19.2 015 18 9 10.6 5.8
6500 -5.7 21.7 005 20 10 12.2 6.7 | -6.2 20.8 015 17 9 11.3 6.2
6250 -4.9 23.2 005 19 10 10.1 5.5 | -5.4 22.3 015 17 9 9.3 5.1
6000 -4.2 24.4 005 19 10 9.3 5.1 | -4.7 23.5 020 17 9 9.3 5.1
5750 -3.4 25.9 005 19 10 13.5 7.4 | -4.0 24.8 020 17 9 11.4 6.2
5500 -2.0 28.4 005 16 8 25.3 13.9 | -2.9 26.8 020 14 7 17.5 9.6
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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