163
FXUS65 KBOU 151750
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1150 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING OVER THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS.
- IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES.
- SAVE FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY, A STEADY WARMING
AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAY RETURN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
- WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD-BREAKING
MARCH HEAT BY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 849 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DENVER
METRO AND PALMER DIVIDE HAS BEEN SURPRISING THIS MORNING. A SNOW
BAND HAS BEEN OVER CENTENNIAL AIRPORT AREA FOR THE LAST 2 HOURS
AND CAMERAS SHOW RUNWAYS ARE SNOW-COVERED WITH PLENTY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE GRASS. ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE, SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 3-5" HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH SNOW CONTINUING. THE CAMERAS
SHOW HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON I-25 NEAR MONUMENT HILL WITH
COMPLETELY SNOW-COVERED ROADS. SINCE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE ZONE. THERE WAS CONSIDERATION FOR ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN JEFFERSON
COUNTY BUT ROAD CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER IN THOSE AREAS SO
NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-70
CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT SNOWFALL AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE OUT
TOWARDS THE LIMON AREA. OVERALL SHOULD SEE A GRADUALLY END TO
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY SUNRISE AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. MTN AREAS WILL STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW THRU
THE DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER PASSES.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER, LATEST DATA SUGGEST THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THRU
NOON AND THEN DECREASE THIS AFTN.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 928 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OUR EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHINOOK WINDS IS COMING TO AN END AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT, LOCATED NEAR CHUGWATER WY AS OF 0930 PM MDT,
RIPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE FORT COLLINS
AREA NEAR 1130 PM, AND DENVER CLOSER TO 1 AM MDT. A SHARP
TEMPERATURE DROP OF AROUND 15 DEGREES IN 30 MINUTES CAN BE
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING SHORTLY
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND WITH GUSTS 35-55 MPH IMPACTING ALL
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BEHIND IT, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE A SHORT WINDOW OF SNOW FOR MOST AREAS ALONG THE URBAN
CORRIDOR, ALTHOUGH WITH HOW QUICKLY THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE THROUGH, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. FOR THE MOST
PART, THE I-25 CORRIDOR STANDS TO SEE A DUSTING TO AN INCH,
ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" REMAIN POSSIBLE GENERALLY
FROM DENVER SOUTH AND MAINLY INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE. MORE
CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED IN OUR MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE, WHEN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY INTENSE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL RATES COINCIDING
WITH STRONG WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AT TIMES, BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN TRAVEL
CORRIDORS. SNOW WILL HAVE LARGELY TAPERED OFF BY SUNRISE SUNDAY,
HOWEVER OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
SUNDAY WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY REGIONWIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY
SLIGHTLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE WARMEST LOCATIONS IN THE
PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. POST-FRONTAL WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN STEADY AND RATHER STRONG, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR, GUSTING 50-55 MPH, AND POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO 70 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-70 PLAINS CORRIDOR. A WINDOW OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FOR THE PLAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITY LOWERS TO NEAR 25%, WITH THE LOCATIONS OF
CONCERN DELINEATED BY THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE LITTLE/NO SNOW
EARLY THIS MORNING (MORE LIKELY FOR THE RURAL PLAINS). SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK, AS LOWS DROP INTO THE TEENS
TO LOW 20'S FOR THE PLAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR RESPECTIVELY, AND
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR MOST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES.
MONDAY WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH
APPROXIMATELY 15-20 DEGREES OF WARMING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A SECONDARY SURGE OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LIMITED
TO NO TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOOK TO RESURFACE AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND WELL-MIXED CONDITIONS RETURN,
UNDER CONTINUED WARMING. SOME QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW DRY WE GET,
AND THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUCH CONDITIONS, BUT OUR NORTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES APPEARS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE.
AS WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SOME TIME NOW, HIGHLY ANOMALOUS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND. WE'RE STILL A WAYS OUT TO BE ABLE
TO IRON OUT THE FINER DETAILS (EXACT HIGHS, LIKELIHOOD OF
REACHING/EXCEEDING MONTHLY RECORDS, AND EXACT TIMING OF THE PEAK
OF THE HEAT), BUT A PROLONGED STRETCH OF HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 80F
DOES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE MOST RECENT SNOW BAND TO SIT OVER KAPA HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY, WHICH HELPED
PUT KAPA UNDER MULTIPLE BANDS, IS STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
DEVELOPMENT, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW FLURRIES
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SNOW CHANCES HAVE ENDED FOR DEN AND BJC.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 35 TO 42KT RANGE FOR DEN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
THAT, EVENTUALLY LOSING GUSTS AROUND 3Z THIS EVENING. WINDS AT
KAPA AND KBJC WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, GENERALLY STAYING AROUND
25KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY AROUND 22 OR 23Z,
THEN DROPPING CLOSER TO 10KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE A MIX OF LIGHT AN VARIABLE AND SW TO SE WINDS. TOMORROW LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME N/NW GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ034-041.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ040>051.
UPDATE...DANIELSON
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...AP
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