655
FXUS65 KBOU 152014
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
214 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AROUND 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS, THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2". PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH SUCH THAT TRAVEL WILL BE FINE.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
- RECORD-SHATTERING MARCH HEAT IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DENVER METRO AND PALMER
DIVIDE FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
OVER-PERFORMANCE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED WELL.
DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN GUSTING UP TO 45-50 MPH FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE CENTENNIAL
AIRPORT HAS GENERALLY HAD WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH. THIS SPEED
CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE, ALONG WITH A JET STREAM PROVIDING
SOME LIFT ALOFT, HAS LEAD TO NUMEROUS BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER THIS AREA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTAL WE HAVE RECEIVED WAS
NEAR LARKSPUR WHERE 10" WAS REPORTED. DESPITE THE CONSTANT SNOW,
THE MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOW HAS MELTED ON HEAVILY TRAFFICKED
ROADS. BECAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. POPS WERE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE OF SNOW. THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY
RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT, ROADS MAY BE ICY AND SLICK IN THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AS TEMPERATURES
WILL GET WELL BELOW FREEZING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 9,000 FEET IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-5" ABOVE 9,000
FEET AND MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE PLAINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 585 DM OVER DENVER ON FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN CREATING DOWNSLOPE,
SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE
WILL BE PEAK CONDITIONS FOR RECORD-SHATTERING TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
DENVER AT 80 ON THURSDAY, 82 ON FRIDAY, AND 83 ON SATURDAY SO
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DAILY RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE 81 ON
THURSDAY, 80 ON FRIDAY, AND 78 ON SATURDAY, WILL BE BROKEN. THERE
IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BREAK
THE MARCH MONTHLY RECORD HIGH OF 84 IN DENVER. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEST WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH. 90 DEGREES IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE
PLAINS AND IN DENVER WHICH WOULD BE REMARKABLE IF IT DOES OCCUR.
THE EARLIEST 90 FOR DENVER IS APRIL 30TH.
THE RECORD WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD FORM AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERY DAY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SO ANY DAY WHERE WINDS ARE
ABOVE 25 MPH, RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY END UP
BEING THE MAJORITY OF THOSE DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE MOST RECENT SNOW BAND TO SIT OVER KAPA HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY, WHICH HELPED
PUT KAPA UNDER MULTIPLE BANDS, IS STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
DEVELOPMENT, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW FLURRIES
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SNOW CHANCES HAVE ENDED FOR DEN AND BJC.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 35 TO 42KT RANGE FOR DEN FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
THAT, EVENTUALLY LOSING GUSTS AROUND 3Z THIS EVENING. WINDS AT
KAPA AND KBJC WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, GENERALLY STAYING AROUND
25KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING SLIGHTLY AROUND 22 OR 23Z,
THEN DROPPING CLOSER TO 10KTS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE A MIX OF LIGHT AN VARIABLE AND SW TO SE WINDS. TOMORROW LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WE'LL SEE A WIND SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME N/NW GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ040>051.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...AP
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