060
FXUS65 KBOU 152337
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
537 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AROUND 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS, THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 2". PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH SUCH THAT TRAVEL WILL BE FINE.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
MULTIPLE DAYS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY REACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
- RECORD-SHATTERING MARCH HEAT IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DENVER METRO AND PALMER
DIVIDE FOR THE ENTIRE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
OVER-PERFORMANCE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW THAT THE MODELS HAVE NOT RESOLVED WELL.
DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS BEEN GUSTING UP TO 45-50 MPH FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE CENTENNIAL
AIRPORT HAS GENERALLY HAD WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH. THIS SPEED
CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE, ALONG WITH A JET STREAM PROVIDING
SOME LIFT ALOFT, HAS LEAD TO NUMEROUS BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOPING
OVER THIS AREA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTAL WE HAVE RECEIVED WAS
NEAR LARKSPUR WHERE 10" WAS REPORTED. DESPITE THE CONSTANT SNOW,
THE MARCH SUN ANGLE HAS ALLOWED PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES TO REACH
ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SNOW HAS MELTED ON HEAVILY TRAFFICKED
ROADS. BECAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND PALMER DIVIDE. POPS WERE INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CHANCE OF SNOW. THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS MAY
RECEIVE ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT, ROADS MAY BE ICY AND SLICK IN THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AS TEMPERATURES
WILL GET WELL BELOW FREEZING.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND HEIGHTS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SNOW WILL FALL MAINLY ABOVE 9,000 FEET IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-5" ABOVE 9,000
FEET AND MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE PLAINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY BUT WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL
BY TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL SATURDAY.
500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 585 DM OVER DENVER ON FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL AID IN CREATING DOWNSLOPE,
SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE
WILL BE PEAK CONDITIONS FOR RECORD-SHATTERING TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
DENVER AT 80 ON THURSDAY, 82 ON FRIDAY, AND 83 ON SATURDAY SO
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DAILY RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE 81 ON
THURSDAY, 80 ON FRIDAY, AND 78 ON SATURDAY, WILL BE BROKEN. THERE
IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WILL BREAK
THE MARCH MONTHLY RECORD HIGH OF 84 IN DENVER. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE SATURDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WEST WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH. 90 DEGREES IS A POSSIBILITY ON THE
PLAINS AND IN DENVER WHICH WOULD BE REMARKABLE IF IT DOES OCCUR.
THE EARLIEST 90 FOR DENVER IS APRIL 30TH.
THE RECORD WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD FORM AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS EVERY DAY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SO ANY DAY WHERE WINDS ARE
ABOVE 25 MPH, RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THIS MAY END UP
BEING THE MAJORITY OF THOSE DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DENVER METRO, PARTICULARLY NEAR APA, HAVE
BEEN REMARKABLY PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE NEAR
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A
FEW MODELS ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW
LATER THIS EVENING ALONG A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL FGEN/CONVERGENCE.
HAVE EXTENDED THE TEMPO AND ADDED A PROB30 THROUGH 05-06Z FOR THAT
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED MVFR CIGS. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE SETTLING ON A DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN ON MONDAY, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE HAS JUST ABOUT EVERY
PREVAILING DIRECTION AS AN OPTION. WOULD HAVE TO IMAGINE THAT
THERE'S ENOUGH SNOW COVER DOWN BY APA TO KEEP DRAINAGE THERE A
LITTLE LONGER, WITH WEAKER EAST/SOUTHEAST AT DEN AS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION FOR NOW.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...HIRIS
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