202
FXUS65 KBOU 161754
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1154 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
- STEADY, CONTINUED WARMING WILL BEGIN TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. HOT/DRY/BREEZY WEATHER WILL SUSTAIN PROLONGED
HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS EACH DAY.
- ALL-TIME HOTTEST MARCH TEMPERATURES APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY
(>80% CHANCE) FOR MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY,
INCLUDING FOR BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 302 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
AM CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING THRU EARLY AFTN
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
HWY 285 IN PARK COUNTY. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT MTN WAVE
WITH CROSS-BARRIER FLOW UP TO 60 KTS. WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS
ALONG HWY 285 HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING.
MEANWHILE, SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW COVER ALONG
HWY 285 FROM COMO TO KENOSHA PASS WHICH COULD HAVE VERY POOR
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON MAINLY WEST OF I-25 ALONG
THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS OWING TO WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH 3KM MSL
PER THE TABLE MOUNTAIN PROFILER. WITH THE MERIDIONAL JET DEPARTING
TO OUR EAST, LINGERING LIFT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND BRING AN END TO THE SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IT
WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
WE'LL WARM UP MODERATELY MONDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND SUBSIDENCE
RETURNS TO THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE, THOUGH DID LOWER HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS GIVEN SIGNS IN SOME HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE OF CONTINUED WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. MOST AREAS ARE THUS FAVORED TO REMAIN IN THE 40'S, WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ALSO MUTING THE POTENTIAL TO HIT 50F. IN OUR
MOUNTAINS, THE APPROACH OF A SECOND NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED JET MAX AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE REDEVELOPMENT OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY, AND THESE WILL CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A REASONABLE
AMOUNT OVER OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN PARTICULAR GIVEN THE QUITE
UNANIMOUS SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
HIGHER PEAKS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE JET WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EMERGES OVER SOCAL. MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING
IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SET TO REBOUND INTO THE 70'S FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS RIDGE WILL SEE A GRADUAL EASTWARD
MIGRATION THROUGH THE WEEK, AS WELL AS AMPLIFICATION, LEADING TO A
STEADY WARMING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST MUCH OF THE
WEEK, NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL REMAIN UNDER AN ENHANCED NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. WITH EFFICIENT MIXING EACH DAY, THIS FAVORS
DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT ARE MORE EXPOSED TO THIS PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. AS
SUCH, AREAS FROM THE CHEYENNE RIDGE EAST TOWARDS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
WILL LIKELY SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, EXACERBATED BY BUILDING
HEAT AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THIS IS RATIFIED BY THE ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 95TH PERCENTILE HDWI TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, LITTLE HAS CHANGED GIVEN THE
RATHER CONSISTENT SIGNAL OBSERVED IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN PROGRESSIVELY MORE ANOMALOUS HEAT EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THAT TREND MORE THAN LIKELY EXTENDING INTO
SATURDAY AS WELL (>85% CHANCE). THE ECMWF'S EFI EXCEEDS THE 95TH
PERCENTILE EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, INDICATING JUST
HOW UNUSUAL SUCH A PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARM TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
FOR OUR AREA. THERE ARE SOME FACTORS, SUCH AS CLOUD COVER, THAT
COULD STILL INFLUENCE OUR CHANCES AT SETTING ALL-TIME MARCH RECORDS
FOR SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS DENVER. HOWEVER, THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
LOCATIONS WITH EXTENSIVE HISTORICAL RECORDS FOR WHICH THOSE RECORDS
APPEAR QUITE EASILY ATTAINABLE: BRECKENRIDGE (61F), FORT COLLINS
(81F) AND AKRON (85F) ARE SOME EXAMPLES OF CITIES WITH A GREATER
THAN AN 80% CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THEIR HOTTEST MARCH DAY FRIDAY
AND/OR SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING IN DENVER IS
MODERATELY LOWER, BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT (~60%).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WINDS ARE AROUND 7KTS OR LESS AT ALL THE AIRPORTS LATE THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD START TO PICK UP AT KBJC FROM THE NW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AROUND 21KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA ARE A BIT MORE COMPLICATED.
MODELS VARY ON IF THE STRONGER NW WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS NEAR
KDEN, THERE'S STILL AN INVERSION THAT WOULD HAVE TO ERODE IN ORDER
FOR THE WINDS TO MIX DOWN HERE, WHICH IS POSSIBLE AS THE SUN COMES
OUT. THERE'S ALSO THE COMPLICATION OF WINDS DRAINING OFF THE SNOW
COVERED PALMER INTO DENVER, POTENTIALLY KEEPING WIND MORE S/SE.
RIGHT NOW, WE'RE KEEPING WINDS MORE TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KDEN, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO SHIFT EITHER SE OR NW.
WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL GO MORE TOWARDS DRAINAGE,
BEFORE PICKING BACK UP FROM THE WNW BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. KBJC
COULD START BLOWING AS EARLY AS THE EARLY TO MID MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN GUSTY WINDS STARTING AROUND 16Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ034.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ238-242-
244-248>251.
UPDATE...RPK
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...AP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page