260
FXUS65 KBOU 170014
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
614 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ALPINE SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- SIGNIFICANT WARM ARE DRY PERIOD AHEAD FROM TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALL-TIME NEW MARCH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET
FOR THE PLAINS THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL SUSTAIN PROLONGED HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WE HAVE JUST THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR SOME NORMAL-ISH
MARCH WEATHER BEFORE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRYNESS RETURN.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SNOW
ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY, THAT WILL BE IT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WILL ALSO LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SUMMIT
COUNTY, THE MOSQUITO RANGE, AND THE INDIAN PEAKS EXPIRE AT 2 PM
MDT THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE A STRONG NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM, UP TO 140 KNOTS OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
595 DAM HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN WEAKENS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS ALL MEANS ABNORMALLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE DENVER COULD SET NEW ALL-TIME MARCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANY OF THOSE DAYS. DENVER'S RECORD HIGH READING FOR
MARCH IS 84 DEGREES. IT WAS SET BACK ON MARCH 26, 1971.
THE DRYNESS AND HEAT WILL MAKE ELEVATED AND EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALL WEAK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
PUSHES A BIT SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND WEAKENS. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN DENVER, STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT COOLER
THEN SATURDAY'S MID 80S WHICH ARE ABOUT 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR ALPINE SHOWERS FOR LATE DAY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WON OUT UNDER SUFFICIENT MIXING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KAPA AND
KBJC, WITH LESS GUSTY NW WINDS MAKING A BRIEF APPEARANCE AT KDEN.
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AT KDEN, SHOULD SEE AN HOUR OR SO OF LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SETTLING INTO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT (BY
2/3Z) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST
SOME WSW/W WINDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ~4-7Z, THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WOULD
BE UNDER 7 KTS WITH THIS SCENARIO, SO WE SHOULDN'T SEE ANY
IMPACTS. AT KAPA, GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE ALSO SETTLING INTO SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT KBJC, THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS MAY HOLD ON RATHER THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY. HAVE GONE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PER
THE HI-RES AGREEMENT FOR THE EVENING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING (WITH 20-22 KT GUSTS), THEN
INCREASING IN SPEEDS AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
FOR TOMORROW, GUSTY WEST TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 16-18Z ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES, WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE INCREASING FARTHER (GUSTS BETWEEN
30-35 KTS) AFTER 20-21Z AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARDS
DRAINAGE THROUGH THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WE WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDER ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE EXPECTED WINDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH AND THE GRASS FUELS ARE VERY DRY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 5-12 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS EVERY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GET INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS AS WELL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ238-242-
244-248>251.
DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...66
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