938
FXUS65 KBOU 170522
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1122 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ALPINE SNOW SHOWERS, PRODUCING A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- SIGNIFICANT WARM ARE DRY PERIOD AHEAD FROM TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALL-TIME NEW MARCH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES A GOOD BET
FOR THE PLAINS THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL SUSTAIN PROLONGED HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR
THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WE HAVE JUST THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR SOME NORMAL-ISH
MARCH WEATHER BEFORE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND DRYNESS RETURN.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ENDING TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SNOW
ENDING IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY, THAT WILL BE IT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WILL ALSO LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SUMMIT
COUNTY, THE MOSQUITO RANGE, AND THE INDIAN PEAKS EXPIRE AT 2 PM
MDT THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE A STRONG NORTHERLY JET MAXIMUM, UP TO 140 KNOTS OVER THE
CWA TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT IS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
595 DAM HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE
PUSHES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER COLORADO THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS PRETTY STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN WEAKENS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS ALL MEANS ABNORMALLY
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE DENVER COULD SET NEW ALL-TIME MARCH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ANY OF THOSE DAYS. DENVER'S RECORD HIGH READING FOR
MARCH IS 84 DEGREES. IT WAS SET BACK ON MARCH 26, 1971.
THE DRYNESS AND HEAT WILL MAKE ELEVATED AND EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ALL WEAK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER
PUSHES A BIT SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND WEAKENS. THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY IN DENVER, STILL AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT COOLER
THEN SATURDAY'S MID 80S WHICH ARE ABOUT 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE MAY BE SOME MINOR ALPINE SHOWERS FOR LATE DAY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY WNW WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE AT BJC THRU 08Z AND THEN SHOULD DECREASE BY 08Z. WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY 15Z FROM THE WNW AND CONTINUE THRU TUE
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
DIA WILL MAINTAIN A WSW WIND OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN MORE WNW
BY 16Z OR 17Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. BY 19Z EXPECT A MORE
NW DIRECTION WITH GUSTS FROM 30-35 MPH THRU THE AFTN.
APA WILL BE LIGHT DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT AND THEN GO WSW BY 14Z.
BY 16Z WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
THRU 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT A MORE WNW DIRECTION WITH GUSTS
FROM 30-35 MPH.
BY EARLY TUE EVENING, WINDS WILL DECREASE AT ALL THREE AIRPORTS
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS WNW OR NW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WE WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDER ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE EXPECTED WINDS LOOK
STRONG ENOUGH AND THE GRASS FUELS ARE VERY DRY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 5-12 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS EVERY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS GET INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS AS WELL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ238-242-
244-248>251.
DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...66
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