668
UXUS97 KBOU 181210
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
0610 MDT WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 18, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 68.3 F/20.1 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 991 FT/MIN (5.0 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 16785 FT MSL (11488 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 80.0 F/27.1 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1030 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 14463 FT MSL (9166 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY 03/19..... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... LITTLE CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 40299 FT MSL (35002 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY 03/19........ POOR
REMARKS... MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCH WARMER.
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 07:05:28 / 19:09:21 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 12 HR 3 MIN 53 SEC (723 MIN 53 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:07:25 MDT... 49.48 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 03/18/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 12400 FT MSL (7103 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 20419 FT MSL (15122 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 18668 FT MSL (13371 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... +4.4
K INDEX......................... +16.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -66.9 -88.4 330 52 27 2.0 1.1 M M M M M
45000 -63.7 -82.7 335 66 34 2.9 1.6 M M M M M
40000 -59.4 -74.9 335 79 41 4.9 2.7 M M M M M
38000 -54.3 -65.7 330 72 37 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
36000 -49.2 -56.6 325 65 33 8.6 4.7 M M M M M
34000 -43.4 -46.1 325 63 32 8.5 4.7 M M M M M
32000 -38.3 -36.9 320 65 33 8.5 4.7 M M M M M
30000 -33.5 -28.3 325 63 33 7.9 4.3 43.1 109.6 12.4 M M
29000 -31.1 -24.0 325 62 32 7.9 4.4 42.4 108.3 12.0 M M
28000 -28.7 -19.7 325 60 31 8.1 4.4 41.8 107.3 11.7 M M
27000 -26.6 -15.9 325 58 30 6.5 3.6 40.7 105.3 11.0 M M
26000 -24.7 -12.5 325 56 29 6.5 3.6 39.4 103.0 10.1 M M
25000 -22.7 -8.9 325 54 28 6.5 3.6 38.3 100.9 9.3 M M
24000 -20.8 -5.4 325 52 27 6.4 3.5 37.1 98.8 8.4 M M
23000 -18.9 -2.0 325 50 26 6.4 3.5 35.8 96.5 7.4 M M
22000 -17.0 1.4 325 48 25 6.5 3.5 34.7 94.4 6.5 M M
21000 -15.2 4.6 325 47 24 6.0 3.3 33.4 92.1 5.5 M M
20000 -13.4 7.9 325 46 24 6.0 3.3 32.0 89.6 4.3 M M
19500 -12.5 9.5 325 45 23 6.0 3.3 31.4 88.5 3.8 M M
19000 -11.7 10.9 325 45 23 5.9 3.2 30.8 87.4 3.3 M M
18500 -10.9 12.4 330 45 23 5.4 2.9 30.0 86.1 2.6 M M
18000 -10.1 13.8 330 45 23 5.4 3.0 29.3 84.7 1.9 M M
17500 -9.3 15.3 330 45 23 5.2 2.8 28.5 83.4 1.2 M M
17000 -8.2 17.2 330 44 23 5.1 2.8 27.3 81.2 0.1 M M
16500 -7.4 18.7 330 44 23 5.8 3.2 26.6 79.9 -0.5 960 4.9
16000 -6.6 20.1 330 44 23 5.9 3.2 25.9 78.7 -1.2 920 4.7
15500 -5.7 21.7 330 44 23 5.8 3.2 25.3 77.6 -1.8 880 4.5
15000 -4.9 23.2 330 43 22 5.7 3.1 24.6 76.3 -2.4 840 4.3
14500 -4.1 24.6 330 42 22 5.8 3.2 24.0 75.1 -3.1 800 4.1
14000 -3.2 26.2 335 40 21 6.1 3.3 23.3 74.0 -3.6 758 3.9
13500 -2.3 27.9 335 38 20 6.2 3.4 22.7 72.9 -4.2 716 3.6
13000 -1.2 29.8 335 35 18 7.4 4.1 22.3 72.1 -4.7 670 3.4
12500 -0.1 31.8 335 32 17 7.3 4.0 21.9 71.4 -5.0 622 3.2
12000 1.1 34.0 335 30 15 8.1 4.4 21.6 70.8 -5.4 572 2.9
11500 2.3 36.1 335 27 14 7.9 4.4 21.3 70.3 -5.6 521 2.6
11000 3.6 38.5 335 27 14 9.7 5.3 21.1 70.0 -5.8 466 2.4
10500 5.0 41.0 335 29 15 9.2 5.1 21.1 70.0 -5.9 408 2.1
10250 5.6 42.1 335 30 15 4.9 2.7 20.9 69.7 -6.0 384 2.0
10000 5.9 42.6 335 29 15 7.4 4.1 20.5 68.9 -6.4 366 1.9
9750 6.8 44.2 340 28 15 12.2 6.7 20.6 69.1 -6.3 334 1.7
9500 7.6 45.7 340 28 14 10.6 5.8 20.7 69.3 -6.3 302 1.5
9250 8.3 46.9 345 27 14 8.0 4.4 20.7 69.3 -6.3 272 1.4
9000 8.9 48.0 345 26 14 7.9 4.3 20.5 69.0 -6.5 249 1.3
8750 9.6 49.3 345 26 13 10.2 5.6 20.5 68.9 -6.5 220 1.1
8500 10.4 50.7 345 25 13 9.5 5.2 20.5 68.9 -6.5 189 1.0
8250 11.1 52.0 340 25 13 8.9 4.9 20.5 68.9 -6.5 161 0.8
8000 11.7 53.1 335 25 13 8.2 4.5 20.4 68.7 -6.6 134 0.7
7750 12.4 54.3 330 25 13 8.4 4.6 20.3 68.5 -6.7 108 0.5
7500 12.9 55.2 325 26 13 4.5 2.5 20.1 68.1 -6.9 83 0.4
7250 13.1 55.6 320 26 14 1.0 0.5 19.5 67.0 -7.5 71 0.4
7000 13.2 55.8 310 27 14 2.2 1.2 18.8 65.9 -8.1 59 0.3
6750 13.3 55.9 305 28 15 -0.6 -0.3 18.2 64.8 -8.8 49 0.2
6500 13.1 55.6 300 27 14 -5.0 -2.7 17.2 63.0 -9.8 48 0.2
6250 12.6 54.7 295 23 12 -6.4 -3.5 16.0 60.9 -11.0 55 0.3
6000 12.2 54.0 290 20 10 -4.7 -2.6 14.9 58.7 -12.2 62 0.3
5750 11.7 53.1 280 16 8 -10.0 -5.5 13.7 56.6 -13.4 68 0.3
5500 10.3 50.5 270 11 6 -27.5 -15.1 11.6 52.8 -15.6 103 0.5
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
03/18/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 03/18/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +7.5
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... +4.8 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -17.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -67.9 -90.2 325 37 19 2.6 1.4 | -67.2 -89.0 320 39 20 1.7 0.9
45000 -63.9 -83.0 330 50 26 3.0 1.6 | -64.2 -83.6 325 49 25 3.5 1.9
40000 -58.9 -74.0 335 66 34 8.6 4.7 | -58.4 -73.1 320 50 26 8.7 4.7
38000 -53.6 -64.5 330 64 33 8.9 4.9 | -53.3 -63.9 325 54 28 8.5 4.7
36000 -48.3 -54.9 325 62 32 8.9 4.9 | -48.2 -54.8 325 59 30 8.5 4.7
34000 -43.1 -45.6 325 62 32 8.4 4.6 | -43.2 -45.8 325 61 31 8.2 4.5
32000 -38.1 -36.6 325 64 33 8.4 4.6 | -38.3 -36.9 330 61 32 8.2 4.5
30000 -33.4 -28.1 325 65 34 7.6 4.2 | -33.8 -28.8 330 63 33 7.2 3.9
29000 -31.1 -24.0 330 66 34 7.6 4.2 | -31.1 -24.0 330 65 34 7.2 3.9
28000 -28.2 -18.8 330 67 34 7.5 4.1 | -29.0 -20.2 330 67 34 7.3 4.0
27000 -26.1 -15.0 330 67 34 6.8 3.7 | -26.7 -16.1 325 63 33 7.9 4.3
26000 -24.1 -11.4 335 67 34 6.8 3.7 | -24.3 -11.7 325 59 31 7.9 4.3
25000 -22.1 -7.8 335 67 34 6.8 3.7 | -22.0 -7.6 325 56 29 8.0 4.4
24000 -20.0 -4.0 330 64 33 6.8 3.7 | -19.8 -3.6 325 56 29 6.7 3.7
23000 -18.0 -0.4 325 60 31 6.8 3.7 | -17.8 -0.0 325 59 30 6.7 3.7
22000 -16.0 3.2 320 57 29 6.9 3.8 | -15.8 3.6 325 62 32 6.8 3.7
21000 -14.2 6.4 320 55 28 5.6 3.1 | -14.0 6.8 325 61 32 6.0 3.3
20000 -12.6 9.3 320 54 28 5.7 3.1 | -12.2 10.0 325 60 31 6.0 3.3
19500 -11.8 10.8 320 54 28 5.7 3.1 | -11.3 11.7 325 59 30 6.0 3.3
19000 -11.0 12.2 320 53 27 5.6 3.1 | -10.4 13.3 325 58 30 6.0 3.3
18500 -10.2 13.6 320 52 27 5.4 3.0 | -9.5 14.9 325 56 29 5.9 3.3
18000 -9.4 15.1 320 51 26 5.5 3.0 | -8.6 16.5 325 54 28 5.9 3.3
17500 -8.7 16.3 325 49 25 4.4 2.4 | -7.7 18.1 325 52 27 6.1 3.4
17000 -8.0 17.6 325 48 25 4.5 2.5 | -6.8 19.8 325 49 25 6.1 3.4
16500 -7.3 18.9 325 46 24 5.0 2.7 | -5.9 21.4 330 47 24 5.3 2.9
16000 -6.5 20.3 330 45 23 5.3 2.9 | -5.2 22.6 330 45 23 5.1 2.8
15500 -5.7 21.7 330 44 23 5.4 3.0 | -4.5 23.9 330 43 22 5.3 2.9
15000 -4.9 23.2 330 43 22 5.8 3.2 | -3.6 25.5 330 41 21 5.8 3.2
14500 -3.6 25.5 335 42 22 6.1 3.3 | -2.4 27.7 330 38 20 6.2 3.4
14000 -2.7 27.1 335 41 21 6.3 3.5 | -1.4 29.5 330 37 19 6.3 3.5
13500 -1.8 28.8 335 41 21 6.6 3.6 | -0.5 31.1 330 36 18 6.5 3.6
13000 -0.7 30.7 335 40 20 7.2 4.0 | 0.5 32.9 335 34 18 6.6 3.6
12500 0.3 32.5 340 38 20 7.5 4.1 | 1.5 34.7 335 33 17 6.6 3.6
12000 1.6 34.9 340 37 19 8.9 4.9 | 2.5 36.5 335 32 16 6.6 3.6
11500 2.9 37.2 340 35 18 8.9 4.9 | 3.5 38.3 335 30 16 7.1 3.9
11000 4.3 39.7 340 33 17 9.4 5.1 | 4.7 40.5 335 28 15 8.6 4.7
10500 5.7 42.3 340 32 16 7.6 4.2 | 6.1 43.0 335 26 14 6.2 3.4
10250 6.1 43.0 340 32 16 5.3 2.9 | 6.4 43.5 335 26 13 4.2 2.3
10000 6.6 43.9 340 31 16 9.6 5.3 | 6.9 44.4 335 24 13 9.0 5.7
9750 7.5 45.5 335 30 15 12.7 7.0 | 7.6 45.7 330 22 11 11.2 6.2
9500 8.4 47.1 335 29 15 10.3 5.7 | 8.4 47.1 330 20 10 9.4 5.2
9250 9.0 48.2 335 27 14 6.9 3.8 | 9.0 48.2 330 19 10 7.0 3.8
9000 9.6 49.3 335 26 14 8.3 4.6 | 9.6 49.3 325 18 9 9.1 5.0
8750 10.3 50.5 335 25 13 11.1 6.1 | 10.4 50.7 320 18 9 11.7 6.4
8500 11.1 52.0 330 24 12 9.3 5.1 | 11.2 52.2 315 17 9 9.0 4.9
8250 11.7 53.1 330 24 12 7.7 4.2 | 11.7 53.1 310 17 9 7.2 4.0
8000 12.3 54.1 325 24 12 8.3 4.6 | 12.3 54.1 305 18 9 7.6 4.1
7750 13.0 55.4 320 24 13 9.0 4.9 | 12.8 55.0 300 18 9 7.1 3.9
7500 13.6 56.5 315 25 13 5.4 3.0 | 13.3 55.9 295 17 9 7.3 4.0
7250 13.8 56.8 310 26 14 2.4 1.3 | 13.8 56.8 290 16 8 7.4 4.1
7000 14.1 57.4 305 28 14 3.9 2.1 | 14.3 57.7 285 14 7 7.6 4.2
6750 14.3 57.7 300 29 15 0.6 0.4 | 14.8 58.6 280 13 7 9.3 5.1
6500 14.1 57.4 295 28 15 -4.9 -2.7 | 15.5 59.9 280 13 6 10.3 5.6
6250 13.7 56.7 290 25 13 -4.4 -2.4 | 16.3 61.3 280 12 6 9.9 5.4
6000 13.3 55.9 285 22 11 -8.5 -4.7 | 17.0 62.6 280 12 6 10.2 5.6
5750 12.3 54.1 275 17 9 -12.4 -6.8 | 17.9 64.2 280 12 6 14.8 8.1
5500 11.6 52.9 265 11 6 -5.9 -3.2 | 19.3 66.7 280 11 6 21.5 11.8
03/18/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 03/18/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.5
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -20.9 | CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -14.5
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -68.2 -90.8 320 40 20 0.6 0.3 | -67.9 -90.2 305 34 17 -0.1 -0.1
45000 -66.0 -86.8 320 49 25 5.7 3.1 | -66.4 -87.5 305 53 27 6.0 3.3
40000 -56.9 -70.4 315 44 23 7.7 4.2 | -57.0 -70.6 305 56 29 7.2 3.9
38000 -52.3 -62.1 320 49 25 7.6 4.2 | -52.8 -63.0 315 55 28 7.1 3.9
36000 -47.7 -53.9 320 55 28 7.6 4.2 | -48.5 -55.3 320 55 28 7.1 3.9
34000 -43.4 -46.1 325 60 31 7.0 3.8 | -44.1 -47.4 320 62 32 7.5 4.1
32000 -39.2 -38.6 325 64 33 7.0 3.8 | -39.6 -39.3 325 72 37 7.5 4.1
30000 -34.1 -29.4 325 68 35 7.7 4.2 | -34.9 -30.8 325 76 39 8.1 4.4
29000 -31.8 -25.2 325 69 35 7.7 4.2 | -31.9 -25.4 325 76 39 8.1 4.4
28000 -29.5 -21.1 325 70 36 7.6 4.2 | -29.5 -21.1 330 76 39 7.8 4.3
27000 -27.3 -17.1 330 68 35 7.5 4.1 | -27.2 -17.0 330 74 38 7.5 4.1
26000 -25.0 -13.0 330 66 34 7.5 4.1 | -25.0 -13.0 330 71 37 7.5 4.1
25000 -22.8 -9.0 330 65 33 7.5 4.1 | -22.7 -8.9 330 69 35 7.5 4.1
24000 -20.5 -4.9 330 63 32 7.7 4.2 | -20.5 -4.9 325 66 34 7.3 4.0
23000 -18.2 -0.8 330 61 31 7.7 4.2 | -18.3 -0.9 325 64 33 7.3 4.0
22000 -15.9 3.4 325 59 30 7.8 4.3 | -16.2 2.8 320 61 31 7.3 4.0
21000 -13.8 7.2 325 59 30 6.7 3.7 | -14.0 6.8 320 60 31 7.1 3.9
20000 -11.8 10.8 325 60 31 6.8 3.7 | -11.9 10.6 320 59 30 7.1 3.9
19500 -10.8 12.6 325 60 31 6.8 3.7 | -10.8 12.6 320 58 30 7.1 3.9
19000 -9.8 14.4 325 60 31 6.8 3.7 | -9.8 14.4 325 57 30 6.5 3.5
18500 -8.7 16.3 325 59 30 6.8 3.8 | -8.8 16.2 325 55 28 6.3 3.5
18000 -7.7 18.1 325 57 30 6.8 3.7 | -7.9 17.8 325 53 27 6.3 3.4
17500 -6.8 19.8 325 55 29 5.4 2.9 | -7.0 19.4 325 50 26 5.7 3.1
17000 -6.0 21.2 330 53 27 5.4 3.0 | -6.1 21.0 325 47 24 5.7 3.1
16500 -5.2 22.6 330 50 26 6.0 3.3 | -5.2 22.6 325 44 23 6.5 3.6
16000 -4.3 24.3 330 48 24 6.1 3.4 | -4.3 24.3 330 42 22 6.7 3.7
15500 -3.3 26.1 330 45 23 6.2 3.4 | -3.3 26.1 330 39 20 7.1 3.9
15000 -1.9 28.6 330 40 21 6.2 3.4 | -1.6 29.1 330 37 19 7.5 4.1
14500 -1.0 30.2 325 37 19 6.0 3.3 | -0.5 31.1 330 35 18 7.3 4.0
14000 -0.1 31.8 325 34 17 6.0 3.3 | 0.6 33.1 330 33 17 7.2 3.9
13500 0.8 33.4 325 31 16 6.2 3.4 | 1.7 35.1 325 31 16 7.4 4.1
13000 1.7 35.1 320 28 14 6.5 3.5 | 2.8 37.0 325 29 15 7.6 4.2
12500 2.7 36.9 320 24 13 6.6 3.6 | 3.9 39.0 325 27 14 8.1 4.4
12000 3.7 38.7 315 21 11 6.9 3.8 | 5.2 41.4 320 27 14 8.7 4.8
11500 4.7 40.5 310 19 10 7.3 4.0 | 6.5 43.7 315 28 14 7.9 4.3
11000 6.0 42.8 305 17 9 8.4 4.6 | 7.4 45.3 310 27 14 5.8 3.2
10500 7.2 45.0 295 16 8 6.0 3.3 | 8.3 46.9 305 27 14 4.3 2.4
10250 7.5 45.5 295 16 8 4.7 2.6 | 8.5 47.3 300 27 14 4.8 2.6
10000 8.0 46.4 295 16 8 9.2 5.0 | 9.0 48.2 300 27 14 8.6 4.7
9750 8.8 47.8 290 16 8 10.7 5.8 | 9.7 49.5 295 27 14 9.4 5.2
9500 9.5 49.1 285 16 8 8.8 4.8 | 10.3 50.5 290 27 14 8.3 4.5
9250 10.0 50.0 285 15 8 6.3 3.5 | 10.8 51.4 290 26 13 6.6 3.6
9000 10.5 50.9 285 14 7 8.5 4.7 | 11.3 52.3 290 25 13 8.5 4.6
8750 11.1 52.0 280 14 7 10.7 5.9 | 12.0 53.6 290 22 11 10.0 5.5
8500 11.8 53.2 280 13 7 9.8 5.4 | 12.7 54.9 290 20 10 9.2 5.1
8250 12.5 54.5 280 13 7 9.3 5.1 | 13.4 56.1 290 19 10 8.9 4.9
8000 13.2 55.8 280 13 6 9.8 5.4 | 14.0 57.2 290 18 9 9.0 5.0
7750 14.0 57.2 280 12 6 10.3 5.7 | 14.7 58.5 290 17 9 9.1 5.0
7500 14.8 58.6 280 12 6 9.9 5.4 | 15.4 59.7 290 16 8 9.5 5.2
7250 15.5 59.9 280 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 16.1 61.0 290 16 8 9.6 5.3
7000 16.2 61.2 280 12 6 9.7 5.3 | 16.8 62.2 290 15 8 9.7 5.3
6750 16.9 62.4 280 12 6 10.2 5.6 | 17.5 63.5 295 15 8 9.8 5.4
6500 17.7 63.9 280 12 6 10.5 5.7 | 18.2 64.8 295 14 7 9.6 5.3
6250 18.5 65.3 280 12 6 10.2 5.6 | 18.9 66.0 295 14 7 9.5 5.2
6000 19.2 66.6 280 11 6 10.7 5.9 | 19.7 67.5 295 13 7 9.7 5.3
5750 20.2 68.4 280 11 6 15.3 8.4 | 20.3 68.5 295 12 6 9.0 4.9
5500 21.5 70.7 280 11 5 21.4 11.7 | 20.9 69.6 295 10 5 7.5 4.1
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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