134
FXUS65 KBOU 190007
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
607 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ALL TIME MARCH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY
TO BE SET (80% CHANCE) WITH UPCOMING HEAT THROUGH SATURDAY.
DAILY RECORDS ALMOST A CERTAINTY.
- PROLONGED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
RECORD HEAT AND EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST CRITICAL DAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
- BRIEF DROP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
- RETURN OF UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND POTENTIAL RECORD HEAT AGAIN
AND MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
A LOOK AT THE 500 MB PATTERN IS MORE REMINISCENT OF JUNE THAN
MARCH! A 596-597DM HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. TO BE CLEAR, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OF
THIS MAGNITUDE HAS NEVER BEEN RECORDED SO EARLY IN THE SEASON, AND
IN FACT IS NEARLY 7 DM HIGHER THAN THE ERA5 (ANALYSIS SINCE 1951)
MONTHLY MAX. WHAT DOES THAN MEAN FOR US?
RECORD HEAT! WE'LL STAY IN LIGHT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MEANING SHALLOW INVERSIONS TO START THE DAY
AND QUICK/FULL WARMUPS AIDED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 700 MB TEMPS
WARM FROM NEAR +10C TODAY TO ALMOST +15C BY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION,
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS STRENGTHEN. THUS,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE RECORD (AND CLOSE TO MONTHLY
RECORD HIGHS), WHILE SATURDAY WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY ACHIEVE THE
MONTHLY RECORD FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
CURRENT RECORDS AND FORECAST DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR DENVER (DIA):
THURSDAY, MARCH 19: 81 (1907) / FORECAST HIGH: 83
FRIDAY, MARCH 20: 80 (1907) / FORECAST HIGH: 84
SATURDAY, MARCH 21: 78 (1995) / FORECAST HIGH: 87
EXISTING MONTHLY RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH AND MAX FORECASTS
THROUGH SATURDAY:
DENVER: 83 (1971) / FORECAST MAX 87
FORT COLLINS: 81 (2012) / FORECAST MAX 88
BOULDER: 83 (1910) / FORECAST MAX 87
GREELEY: 85 (2010) / FORECAST MAX 89
FORT MORGAN: 85 (2010) / FORECAST MAX 90
JULESBURG: 88 (1967) / FORECAST MAX 90
ESTES PARK: 70 (1925) / FORECAST MAX 74
DILLON: 63 (2012) / FORECAST MAX 68
PER ABOVE, AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SMASH MONTHLY
RECORDS BY 4-5 DEGREES, BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. SO FAR, THOSE CLOUDS DON'T LOOK TO COME IN UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEXT GLANCING SHORTWAVE.
THAT NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE WILL ONLY BE MODEST WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY SETTLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE, BRIEFLY EASING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BRINGING JUST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS -
MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS.
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WHILE SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE THAN THE CURRENT RIDGE, A RETURN OF
RECORD WARMTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
IS LIKELY (>60% CHANCE) AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH MODEST WESTERLY BREEZES, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RAMP UP AGAIN...SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE
RETURNED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DENVER TAF SITES. SHOULD
SEE THEM DECREASE AROUND SUNSET AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARDS
DRAINAGE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THURSDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY TO TODAY, WITH DRAINAGE WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING WEST TO NW IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS MIX DOWN AFTER THE 20-22Z TIME
FRAME AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, THOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
MIXED, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
CURRENT (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH HUMIDITY DOWN TO 8-10% AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL EASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING.
THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY MODEST HUMIDITY
RECOVERY AT BEST OVERNIGHT.
RECORD WARMTH AND DRYNESS WILL REMAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FORTUNATELY WINDS ON BOTH DAYS WILL BE LIGHTER, BUT ENOUGH WIND
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING
FOR NORTHERN WELD AND NORTHERN LARIMER COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY BY SATURDAY AS
FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS
AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS. IN FACT, WE'LL LIKELY SEE HUMIDITY
READINGS DOWN TO 5-7% ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS, AND 8-12% OVER
THE FOOTHILLS, WHILE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 25-35
MPH. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE FUELS WERE RECENTLY DEEMED CRITICAL BECAUSE
OF THE EARLY SNOW MELT-OUT. IT'S ALSO NOTEWORTHY HUMIDITY
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WILL BE POOR IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS, AND ONLY
MODERATE AT BEST ELSEWHERE.
WHILE A BRIEF RESPITE OCCURS WITH SOME COOLING AND MOISTENING
SUNDAY, IT WILL STAY BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN MUCH
WARMER AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ238>240-
242>245-248>251.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ238-242.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...9
FIRE WEATHER...20
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