670
FXUS65 KBOU 110005
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
605 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN TODAY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- SCATTERED SHOWERSÂ SATURDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
- WARM AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
CLOUD COVER MANAGED TO HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE DENVER CYCLONE HAS SET UP
NEAR/NORTH OF DENVER, PUTTING THE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVERGENCES ZONE COULD
BE A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF INHIBITION OUT THERE, BUT IF WE
CAN WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES, WE COULD TAP INTO SOME LOW END
SURFACE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON (~500 J/KG). THE DCVZ COMBINED WITH
SOME SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LANDSPOUT OR TWO TO
FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE AS WELL. THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY OUTFLOWS.
BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND OUT
OF COLORADO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. ALOFT, WE'LL
SEE A FEW SHORTWAVE IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST, BREEZY
WEST WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW/LEE TROUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER
TOMORROW, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN
AMOUNTS UNDER THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS TO SEE A QUICK COUPLE OF TENTHS. LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM IN OUR EAST/NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. MINIMUM RHS WILL DROP INTO THE 10% TO 15% RANGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS BOTH AFTERNOONS, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, PALMER DIVIDE, AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES TOWARDS COLORADO. WHILE WE STILL
HAVE PRECIP CHANCES, MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER WITH PRECIP
ACCUMULATION'S OVER OUR AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE VERSUS A FEW DAYS AGO WHERE IT WAS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
HEADED STRAIGHT FOR COLORADO. PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS COULD STILL
SEE A FEW TENTHS, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID OR LESS. THE MOUNTAINS LOOK A LITTLE BETTER
OFF WITH THIS EVENT, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES
FOR AREAS ABOVE 7,500FT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER LATE TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DRIER WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE DENVER CYCLONE AND THE
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE DIA AT THIS
TIME. THEY ALSO INDICATE ONGOING CONVECTION STILL UPSTREAM FOR THE
AIRPORT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. AS A RESULT, LEFT PROB30 GROUP IN
FOR -TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 02Z. MODELS SHOW NORMAL DRAINAGE
WINDS INTO DIA BY 04Z. TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION COULD BE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ216-241-246-247-249>251.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...66
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