069
FXUS65 KBOU 110458
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1058 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERSÂ SATURDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
- WARM AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON SAT AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS WY. AT THE SFC, LOW PRES WILL EXTEND FROM ERN WY INTO
ERN CO. OVERALL, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT BY AFTN, EXCEPT
OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS WHERE SBCAPE MAY BE UP TO 1000 G/KG.
FURTHER WEST, SBCAPE WILL BE 500 J/KG OR LESS AND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES WILL BE DECENT ALONG WITH QUITE A
BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THUS WILL SEE HIGHER BASED SHOWERS WITH
A A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. DCAPE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE
AROUND 1000 J/KG SO A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINAL SVR WIND GUSTS. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE 70'S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ON SUN, DRIER AIR IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LITTLE CHC OF PCPN. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL RANGE FROM 75 TO 80 DEGREES.
FOR MON, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN THE GREAT BASIN WITH
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT AS A SFC LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN WY
INTO ERN CO. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW THRU AFTN WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AS A RESULT, IT
WILL BE WARM AND DRY OVER THE PLAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTN SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MON NIGHT INTO TUE, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ACROSS AS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH RATHER
WEAK QG ASCENT. BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH JUST A
CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT THIS TIME.
ON WED, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL WITH LATEST CROSS-SECTIONS
SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE FLOW. THUS IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS.
ON THU, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NW. FOR NOW, THU LOOKS DRY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE DENVER CYCLONE AND THE
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST OF THE DIA AT THIS
TIME. THEY ALSO INDICATE ONGOING CONVECTION STILL UPSTREAM FOR THE
AIRPORT MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. AS A RESULT, LEFT PROB30 GROUP IN
FOR -TSRA AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 02Z. MODELS SHOW NORMAL DRAINAGE
WINDS INTO DIA BY 04Z. TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION COULD BE A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND A BIT STRONGER WITH BETTER INSTABILITY
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
HAVE EXPANDED WATCH FOR SUNDAY TO INCLUDE PLAINS AREAS NEAR THE
WY BORDER AND ACROSS SOUTH PARK. WINDS MAY END UP BEING BORDERLINE
IN SOME AREAS BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW AND PRECIP HAS BEEN
MINIMAL. AT THIS TIME, BEST CHC FOR STRONGER WINDS APPEARS
TO BE OVER SOUTH PARK, SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, PALMER DIVIDE AND NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ214-216-238-239-241-242-246>251.
DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...66
FIRE WEATHER...RPK
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