627
FXUS65 KBOU 112332
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
532 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS (30-45 MPH) WILL BE
COMMON. A COUPLE STRONGER GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARM AND DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
- WEAKENING DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS, THEN DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AT THIS TIME. AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, LIFT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR THIS
MORNING, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE
30S AND 40S, THE SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX WITH THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT, CAUSING DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SBCAPE CLIMBS TO 500 J/KG, WHICH ISN'T THAT IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER,
DCAPE REACHES 1000 J/KG, THUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST REACHING AROUND 60 MPH. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ENDS AROUND SUNSET AS
THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING
WARM AND DRY WEATHER. ON SUNDAY, THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIXES INTO
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, LEADING TO GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS WILL NOT BE AS GREAT
DUE TO A FORMING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. WEAKER
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO VARIABLE ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE LOW. STRONGER
WINDS, WHICH LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COLORADO PLAINS. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WAS CANCELED FOR MOST OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS, BUT A
STRIP OF ZONES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREA REMAINS UNDER THE WATCH
DUE TO STRONGER WINDS, WHICH MAY STILL BRING GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS, STRONGEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. A GOOD
AMOUNT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH(S) EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
ON WEDNESDAY, WEAK RIDGING MOVES ACROSS COLORADO. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO,
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
COLORADO SOMETIME FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS
COOLER TEMPERATURES (NOT SURPRISING) AND A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
THREAT OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THRU
01Z. THERE IS A LOW THREAT (5% CHANCE) FOR A WEAK TSTM AS WELL.
AFTER 01Z MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END. WINDS WILL BE CHAOTIC EARLY
THIS EVENING DUE TO BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS. EVENTUALLY WINDS
WILL GO MORE SW/SSW BY 02Z OR 03Z. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
DRAINAGE.
ON SUN, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SW BY 18Z WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH THRU THE AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THRU THE
PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ214-216-238-239-241-242-246>251.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...RPK
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