467
FXUS65 KBOU 121744
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1144 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE PLAINS NEAR
THE WYOMING BORDER.
- CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A FEW,
MAINLY ALPINE LATE DAY SHOWERS.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. DRAINAGE
WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WERE
STILL IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME AND EVEN A TAD
WARMING TO DECENT DOWNSLOPING WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE PRETTY STRONG, 90-110 KNOTS, THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. BY THEN,
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE ISN'T MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY THROUGH MONDAY. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS HAVE
DECENT UPWARD MOTION STARTING LATE MONDAY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT FOR THE
CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE IS LOOKING SCARCE FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THE 10-20%
POPS GOING FOR THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATE DAY
MONDAY, SO POPS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 40%. WILL INCREASE POPS LATE
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH'S INCOMING
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY AND INCREASED MOISTURE. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS POINT TO MOST OF THE CWA ACTUALLY GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING, AND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER THE PLAINS. MONDAY'S HIGHS LOOK A TAD COOLER WITH LOWER TO MID
70S FOR HIGHS THERE. TUESDAY'S EXPECTED COOLER AIRMASS KEEPS HIGHS
IN THE 60S OVER THE PLAINS AND THIS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH, COMPLETE WITH A DECENT SHOT OF COLD
AIR, LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATER FRIDAY, FRIDAY NIGHT ON INTO SATURDAY. WE'LL
SEE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING OUT OF DRAINAGE FLOW AS THE INVERSION HAS
MIXED OUT ACCORDING TO ACARS SOUNDINGS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE KEPT IN WSW/W WINDS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS AT ALL THREE SITES STARTING BETWEEN 19Z
AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. KAPA IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE STRONGEST
GUSTS. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY (20-30%) THAT THE STRONGER
WINDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING AND TURN TO DRAINAGE. THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH TOMORROW AROUND
18Z TO 21Z. WE EXPECT ANOTHER TRANSITION FROM DRAINAGE TO A WSW/W
WIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND
20-25 KTS AT ALL THREE SITES STARTING AROUND 19Z TO 21Z. THE ONSET
OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AT KAPA
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN AT KBJC AND KAPA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
WE WENT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA ZONES AND ZONE 238 DUE TO THE LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY
DRY IN THESE AREAS. WE ALSO WENT WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH OVER
SIMILAR AREAS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, DUE TO THE
SAME CONDITIONS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214-216-238-
241-246-247-249.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ214-216-238-241-242-246-247-249.
DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...MV
FIRE WEATHER...66
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