381
FXUS65 KBOU 132109
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
309 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE PLAINS NEAR THE WYOMING
BORDER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY,
THOUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO LINCOLN COUNTY.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH
SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER PASSES MAINLY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE FORM OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY'S RED
FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS ALONG OUR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES WHERE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ARE
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THINGS
ARE PRETTY NICE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND
50S FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AND TEMPERATURES DROP. THE GREATEST QG LIFT STILL LOOKS
TO BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH CROSSES OVER
THE FORECAST AREA AND A COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. DURING
THIS TIME, SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THAT COULD BRING SOME SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST. LOOKING LIKE STORM TOTALS BETWEEN 3
TO 9 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9,500
FEET, WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FAVORED TO SEE THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THOUGH ELEVATIONS AS LOW AS 7,500 FEET MAY END UP WITH A
FEW FLAKES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE.
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A 50% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN .2" OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FROM ROUGHLY FORT MORGAN NORTHWARD,
DROPPING TO 20-30% FOR PROBABILITIES OF QPF OVER .4" FOR THE SAME
AREA. MUCH LIGHTER QPF IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS FROM ROUGHLY ADAMS
COUNTY SOUTHWARD, WHERE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE FORECAST. WITH
THE DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER LINCOLN COUNTY, THE SOUTHERN
HALF HAS BEEN PUT UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY WHERE GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 40 MPH COINCIDING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS 12% IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 AM AND 8 PM.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, GIVING WAY TO WARMER TEMPS AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH 60S AND 70S FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 40S AND 50S FOR
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
BY THURSDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AND INCREASE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT MORE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL DROP OUT OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN
SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FOR OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY. DETAILS
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT FOR SPECIFIC TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE LATEST NBM SHOWS BETWEEN A 40% TO 80% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST .1" OF SNOWFALL FOR OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY
EVENING (HIGHER CHANCES ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER, LOWER CHANCES
SOUTHWARD), AS A COLD FRONT COOLS TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW
FREEZING.
BEYOND FRIDAY, SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING
BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. BEYOND THIS, LOOKS LIKE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WE WILL
RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND FORECAST WILL BE
CHALLENGING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. CHANNELS OF GUSTY
WEST WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
DENVER AREA. IN BETWEEN, WIND EDDIES (CIRCULATIONS) WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF VARIABLE WINDS. THUS CONFIDENCE WILL BE LOW. ON
TUESDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
POSSIBLY TURNING EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED 20-21Z TUESDAY AS SHOWERS
ROLL OFF THE FOOTHILLS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY'S RED FLAG WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG OUR NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN BOUNDARIES WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH
SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE
AREAS WITHIN THE RFW ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE MOST CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, THERE WILL BE PATCHY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF THE WARNED AREAS.
A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON TUESDAY
THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH WITH ITS TIMING EXPECTED NOT TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE EVENING, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY BY LATE MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH AND RH
AS LOW AS 12% EXPECTED. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM FOR THIS AREA.
WHILE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY (DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH PRECIP WE SEE
TUESDAY), THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY AGAIN ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214-216-238-
241-242-246-247.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ247.
DISCUSSION...9
AVIATION...12
FIRE WEATHER...9
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