590
FXUS65 KBOU 141139
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
539 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY FOR THE HIGH MOUNTAINS, WITH A GOOD CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA INTO TUESDAY
EVENING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE PROMISE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR ALL THE FORECAST
AREA. PERHAPS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ON THE PLAINS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF ARIZONA AT THIS HOUR. CURRENTLY,
THERE IS DECENT CONVECTION OVER WESTERN COLORADO, WITH EVEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
WESTWARD ACROSS ALL THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND IS CURRENTLY
MOVING UP INTO THE FOOTHILLS WITH NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE STILL IN
THE 50S THIS LATE EVENING.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SLOWLY ACROSS
COLORADO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA FROM 18Z TO ABOUT 03Z LATE TUESDAY. THE
INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDINGS. THE BEST QPF WITH
THE SYSTEM STARTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GOES
INTO EARLY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 9,500 FEET COULD GET
CLOSE TO 10 INCHES TOTAL IN A COUPLE SPOTS FROM NOW THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WOULD
ONLY SEE 3-6 INCHES. IT DOESN'T WARRANT ANY HIGHLIGHTS. OVER THE
PLAINS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING 40-60% CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS
FROM 18Z TO 06Z. THE NORTHERN BORDER PLAINS COULD SEE 0.25 OF RAIN
FROM IT AT BEST, WITH LESS OVER THE REST OF THE LOW LANDS. WILL
END THE POPS OVER THE PLAINS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, A FEW ALPINE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S FOR HIGHS OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY, WARMEST OVER THE FAR EASTERN BORDER.
THERE IS WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 60S OVER MOST OF
THE PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SIGNIFICANTLY BY AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT WELL INTO
FRIDAY, WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS COLORADO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW THIS SYSTEM TO BE
STRONGER WITH COLDER AIR AVAILABLE AS WELL AS MORE MOISTURE AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF THE CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A TAD FROM PREVIOUS MODELS, BUT
SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR MOST AREAS. WE CAN ONLY HOPE
FOR SOME MUCH NEEDED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MODELS SHOW WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH ON SATURDAY, THEN
UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES IN PLACE
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN LATER MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THERE MAY BE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
SATURDAY, BUT OVERALL THE 4 DAY PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, ONCE AGAIN,
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
WINDS HAD BECOME LIGHT AND VRB THIS MORNING, WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OFFSETTING NORMAL
DRAINAGE WINDS. WE DO THINK THERE SHOULD BE A TRANSITION TO NE-E
15Z-18Z, WITH POSSIBILITY (30% CHANCE) OF GOING SE. BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS.
MODELS HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, BUT
ARE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS BY 18Z (SCATTERED
LIGHTER SHOWERS BEFORE THAT) AND THEN PUSHING E-NE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, WE
EXPECT A GUSTY W-NW OUTFLOW TO ORIGINATE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PUSH
EAST AHEAD OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THAT SHIFT
COULD REACH THE AIRPORTS AS EARLY AS 19Z OR AS LATE AS 22Z AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE TAF. WE'LL EVENTUALLY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO LIKELY
AT THE AIRPORTS BUT AGAIN THESE WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED SO
ONLY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. WE HAVE OPTED TO TAKE OUT THE
GUSTY VRB WINDS HOWEVER, SINCE DCAPE IS <400 J/KG AND TYPICALLY
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS HAVE THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW COMING OFF THE
FOOTHILLS. THE CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES IS
ONLY 10-20% GIVEN LIMITED MLCAPE <200 J/KG.
REGARDING CEILINGS, THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH MEANS
MORE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THEREFORE, WE'VE REDUCED THE CEILINGS
A BIT MORE TO REFLECT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE AND LATEST DATA.
THERE'S NOW ABOUT A 50-60% CHANCE WE'LL HAVE IMC AT SOME POINT
22Z-05Z, WITH CEILINGS 6000 FEET AGL OR LESS. SKIES WILL BE SLOWER
TO CLEAR AS WELL, AND THUS THE TRANSITION FROM NORTHERLY WINDS TO
DRAINAGE S-SW WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED TIL 08Z-12Z WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
IN SPITE OF THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY, ZONE 247, STILL
LOOKS TO HAVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR A FEW
HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING
INTO THE 12-17 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.
FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY IN THESE AREAS.
LOOKING AHEAD, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK WIDESPREAD
ACROSS ALL THE PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ247.
DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...20
FIRE WEATHER...66
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