474
FXUS65 KBOU 142027 AAC
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
227 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET MSL
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LINGER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- HARD FREEZE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING EAST ACROSS UTAH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE BETWEEN 7,000 AND 8,000 FEET MSL.
AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. LOCALLY, UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND A SURFACE LOW
FORMS OVER WYOMING/NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE STRONGEST WINDS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
PLAINS, THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF I-70.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LESS THAN HALF AN INCH) AND COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS
REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING, WHICH COULD NUDGE AMOUNTS UP OR
DOWN. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT
THE AIRMASS QUICKLY COOLS WITH SNOW EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB FALL TO -8 TO -12C, WHICH IS PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN
3 INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE NEEDED
PRECIPITATION, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY COLD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. LOW LYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES, WITH READINGS IN THE 15 TO 20
DEGREE RANGE. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST
SINCE MID MARCH. ABOVE-GROUND IRRIGATION LINES MAY BE DAMAGED
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HARD FREEZE. IT'S
BEST (SAFEST) TO DISCONNECT HOSES AND DRAIN ABOVE GROUND
IRRIGATION LINES AHEAD OF TIME.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING, LEAVING A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. AFTER
SATURDAY MORNING'S COLD START, TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO THE 50S
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. ONCE THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. ALL THREE DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM
AND DRY. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SLOW WARMING CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BY TUESDAY
HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNDER THIS
PATTERN, BUT IF THEY OCCUR, THEY WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM MDT TUE APR 14 2026
VIRGA SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PASSING OVER/NEAR ALL THREE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE GUSTY WINDS AT ALL THREE
SITES- GUSTS COULD REACH 20 TO 25 KTS WITH ANY OF THESE OUTFLOWS,
MAINLY FAVORING A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESS,
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AS NOTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS LEADING TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/PRECIPITATION REACHING
THE GROUND. HAVE ADDED IN TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS FROM AROUND 21Z
TO 06Z TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (APPROXIMATELY 10%) FOR A THUNDERSTORM, BUT CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW. GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOWERING CEILINGS TO NEAR 6000 FEET AGL, ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME VRB BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOME W TO NW
BY TOMORROW MORNING. A DRAINAGE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AT KAPA. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL RISE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH NO
CEILING ISSUES EXPECTED AFTER AROUND 08Z. WINDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS STARTING AROUND 18Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ247.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...MV
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