813
FXUS65 KBOU 161746
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1146 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND RED FLAG WARNING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF DENVER TODAY.
- NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
SOME SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT WED APR 15 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN MORE TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH. BREEZY WINDS
COMBINED WITH RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, PALMER DIVIDE, AND
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF US 34.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTH, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 50MPH OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WITH SNOW CHANCES SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. WE'RE
A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE AND
CONVERGENCE AGAINST THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IN THESE AREAS FOR THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE INCREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, BUT AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP
FURTHER IF BANDING POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE PROMINENT. MOST LIKELY
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR, NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR,
AND EAST IS A TRACE TO AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY
AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA ARE MORE IN THE 1 TO
4 INCH RANGE, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (~10%) THAT AMOUNTS
COULD APPROACH AROUND 8 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. THE
MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING AT MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 8
INCHES. WITH HOW WARM THE ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO START THIS
EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS (AND THE MORE BORDERLINE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON), ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADWAYS SHOULD
BE LIMITED.
SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. AT
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE PALMER. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A HARD FREEZE, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING SPRINKLER SYSTEMS
AND PLANTS WHICH HAVE STARTED TO BUD. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BETWEEN THE
EXITING TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST COAST. A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE LOWER 80S
FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THINGS START TO
GET A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS TRY TO FIGURE OUT
HOW THAT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., BUT A MAJORITY
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE PLAINS DRY AND GIVE A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, UNDER THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN,
IT`S NOT UNUSUAL TO SEE A SHEAR ZONE DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH
SCT/BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE DENVER AREA LEADING TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES AFTER 18Z. THE HRRR,
CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF LIGHT/VRB WINDS NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF
KDEN AND KBJC THIS AFTERNOON, THEREFORE, WE ADDED A TEMPO FOR VRB
WINDS TO THE DEN TAF. KAPA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD START TO RELAX AGAIN BY 01Z-02Z
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A STRONG FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, 05-07Z
BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE FRONT, WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT, CLOSER TO 12Z. LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY 15-20Z. ANY
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO GRASSY AND
ELEVATED SURFACES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF FRIDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. SNOW
DECREASES AND ENDS 20-23Z WITH SKIES CLEARING AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS,
PALMER DIVIDE, AND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF US 34.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ214-216-241-
245>247-249.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
COZ038>051.
DISCUSSION...AP
AVIATION...12
FIRE WEATHER...AP
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