032
UXUS97 KBOU 020120
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1919 MDT FRIDAY, MAY 1, 2026
THIS FORECAST IS FOR SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2026:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 55.5 F/13.1 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 988 FT/MIN (5.0 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 17267 FT MSL (11906 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 71.0 F/22.1 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 0945 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ NONE
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 14821 FT MSL (9459 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY 05/03....... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 17885 FT MSL (12524 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY 05/03.......... POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:58:13 / 19:54:39 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 13 HR 56 MIN 26 SEC (836 MIN 26 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 12:56:26 MDT... 65.77 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 05/02/2026 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 9721 FT MSL (4360 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 17143 FT MSL (11782 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 17470 FT MSL (12108 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -0.4
K INDEX......................... +0.2
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.9 -74.0 290 29 15 1.0 0.6 M M M M M
45000 -57.3 -71.1 295 31 16 -1.1 -0.6 M M M M M
40000 -63.8 -82.8 320 17 9 -4.4 -2.4 M M M M M
38000 -63.1 -81.6 335 16 8 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
36000 -59.0 -74.2 350 21 11 6.9 3.8 M M M M M
34000 -54.8 -66.6 360 26 13 7.9 4.4 M M M M M
32000 -49.5 -57.1 360 26 14 7.9 4.3 M M M M M
30000 -44.8 -48.6 360 26 13 8.0 4.4 30.6 87.1 6.7 M M
29000 -42.4 -44.3 005 25 13 8.0 4.4 29.8 85.7 6.2 M M
28000 -40.0 -40.0 005 24 12 8.0 4.4 29.2 84.5 5.8 M M
27000 -37.6 -35.7 010 22 12 7.6 4.2 28.6 83.4 5.4 M M
26000 -35.4 -31.7 010 21 11 7.6 4.2 27.6 81.8 4.7 M M
25000 -33.1 -27.6 015 19 10 7.6 4.2 26.8 80.3 4.1 M M
24000 -30.8 -23.4 020 18 9 8.0 4.4 26.2 79.1 3.6 M M
23000 -28.3 -18.9 025 17 9 8.3 4.5 25.5 78.0 3.2 M M
22000 -25.9 -14.6 030 16 8 8.3 4.5 25.0 77.0 2.8 M M
21000 -23.4 -10.1 030 15 8 8.0 4.4 24.5 76.1 2.4 M M
20000 -21.0 -5.8 030 15 8 8.0 4.4 23.8 74.9 1.8 M M
19500 -19.8 -3.6 025 15 8 8.0 4.4 23.6 74.4 1.6 M M
19000 -18.6 -1.5 025 15 8 8.1 4.4 23.3 73.9 1.4 M M
18500 -17.4 0.7 025 15 8 7.4 4.0 23.0 73.4 1.1 M M
18000 -15.8 3.6 020 16 8 7.2 3.9 22.3 72.2 0.5 M M
17500 -14.8 5.4 020 16 8 6.8 3.8 21.9 71.4 0.1 M M
17000 -13.8 7.2 020 16 8 6.8 3.7 21.3 70.4 -0.3 955 4.9
16500 -12.8 9.0 020 17 9 6.4 3.5 20.9 69.5 -0.8 910 4.6
16000 -11.9 10.6 015 16 8 5.7 3.1 20.2 68.3 -1.4 870 4.4
15500 -11.1 12.0 015 16 8 5.7 3.1 19.5 67.1 -2.0 830 4.2
15000 -10.4 13.3 015 15 8 4.3 2.3 18.7 65.6 -2.8 794 4.0
14500 -9.7 14.5 010 14 7 4.3 2.4 17.8 64.0 -3.6 760 3.9
14000 -9.1 15.6 010 13 7 4.9 2.7 17.0 62.5 -4.5 725 3.7
13500 -8.4 16.9 005 12 6 4.9 2.7 16.2 61.1 -5.3 690 3.5
13000 -7.6 18.3 360 11 6 6.2 3.4 15.5 59.8 -6.0 652 3.3
12500 -6.7 19.9 355 10 5 6.3 3.5 14.9 58.8 -6.6 610 3.1
12000 -5.7 21.7 350 9 5 8.0 4.4 14.5 58.0 -7.1 565 2.9
11500 -4.5 23.9 345 8 4 8.2 4.5 14.2 57.6 -7.4 514 2.6
11000 -3.3 26.1 335 7 4 8.5 4.7 14.0 57.2 -7.6 463 2.4
10500 -2.0 28.4 325 7 3 9.2 5.0 13.8 56.8 -7.8 410 2.1
10250 -1.4 29.5 320 6 3 6.2 3.4 13.7 56.6 -8.0 383 1.9
10000 -1.0 30.2 315 6 3 7.4 4.1 13.3 56.0 -8.3 364 1.8
9750 -0.2 31.6 305 6 3 11.2 6.1 13.4 56.1 -8.3 333 1.7
9500 0.6 33.1 300 6 3 10.6 5.8 13.4 56.2 -8.3 303 1.5
9250 1.4 34.5 295 6 3 9.2 5.1 13.5 56.3 -8.2 272 1.4
9000 2.0 35.6 290 6 3 8.1 4.5 13.4 56.1 -8.4 246 1.3
8750 2.6 36.7 290 6 3 9.6 5.3 13.3 56.0 -8.4 219 1.1
8500 3.4 38.1 290 6 3 9.6 5.2 13.3 56.0 -8.5 190 1.0
8250 4.0 39.2 290 6 3 8.2 4.5 13.3 55.9 -8.6 162 0.8
8000 4.6 40.3 290 5 3 7.4 4.1 13.1 55.6 -8.7 138 0.7
7750 5.2 41.4 290 5 3 7.9 4.3 12.9 55.3 -8.9 113 0.6
7500 5.8 42.4 290 5 3 7.0 3.9 12.8 55.0 -9.1 89 0.5
7250 6.2 43.2 295 5 3 5.8 3.2 12.5 54.5 -9.4 67 0.3
7000 6.7 44.1 295 5 3 6.0 3.3 12.2 54.0 -9.7 47 0.2
6750 7.1 44.8 295 5 3 4.8 2.7 11.9 53.4 -10.0 27 0.1
6500 7.3 45.1 295 5 3 1.2 0.7 11.4 52.5 -10.6 13 0.1
6250 7.3 45.1 295 5 3 -0.8 -0.5 10.7 51.2 -11.3 6 0.0
6000 7.3 45.1 295 5 3 1.1 0.6 9.9 49.8 -12.1 M M
5750 7.2 45.0 295 5 3 -4.5 -2.5 9.2 48.5 -12.9 M M
5500 6.3 43.3 280 4 2 -18.8 -10.3 7.5 45.6 -14.6 13 0.1
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
05/02/2026 AT 0900 MDT | 05/02/2026 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +5.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.4
CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... -13.2 | CINH... -0.0 K INDEX... -20.3
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -58.9 -74.0 290 29 15 0.9 0.5 | -59.1 -74.4 290 31 16 0.7 0.4
45000 -57.4 -71.3 300 30 15 -1.0 -0.5 | -58.1 -72.6 290 31 16 -1.2 -0.6
40000 -62.7 -80.9 310 24 13 -3.5 -1.9 | -63.1 -81.6 310 30 15 -3.4 -1.8
38000 -62.1 -79.8 320 24 13 5.8 3.2 | -62.2 -80.0 315 30 15 6.0 3.3
36000 -58.6 -73.5 335 27 14 5.8 3.2 | -58.6 -73.5 325 31 16 6.0 3.3
34000 -54.9 -66.8 345 30 15 7.9 4.3 | -54.7 -66.5 335 31 16 7.9 4.3
32000 -49.6 -57.3 350 28 15 7.8 4.3 | -49.4 -56.9 340 29 15 7.8 4.3
30000 -45.0 -49.0 355 28 14 7.7 4.3 | -44.8 -48.6 345 27 14 7.8 4.3
29000 -42.6 -44.7 355 27 14 7.7 4.2 | -42.4 -44.3 345 26 14 7.7 4.3
28000 -40.3 -40.5 360 27 14 7.7 4.3 | -40.1 -40.2 350 25 13 7.8 4.3
27000 -38.0 -36.4 360 26 14 8.0 4.4 | -37.8 -36.0 350 25 13 7.8 4.3
26000 -35.6 -32.1 005 25 13 8.0 4.4 | -35.5 -31.9 355 24 12 7.8 4.3
25000 -33.2 -27.8 005 24 12 8.0 4.4 | -33.2 -27.8 360 23 12 7.8 4.3
24000 -30.8 -23.4 010 22 11 8.1 4.4 | -30.8 -23.4 360 22 11 8.1 4.5
23000 -28.4 -19.1 010 20 10 8.1 4.4 | -28.3 -18.9 005 19 10 8.2 4.5
22000 -25.9 -14.6 015 18 9 8.1 4.4 | -25.9 -14.6 010 16 8 8.2 4.5
21000 -23.5 -10.3 020 17 9 8.3 4.6 | -23.4 -10.1 015 14 7 8.3 4.6
20000 -21.0 -5.8 020 15 8 8.3 4.5 | -20.9 -5.6 010 13 6 8.3 4.6
19500 -19.8 -3.6 020 15 7 8.3 4.5 | -19.7 -3.5 010 12 6 8.3 4.6
19000 -18.5 -1.3 020 14 7 8.3 4.6 | -18.4 -1.1 010 11 6 8.4 4.6
18500 -16.7 1.9 025 13 7 7.9 4.4 | -16.6 2.1 010 10 5 8.0 4.4
18000 -15.5 4.1 025 13 7 8.0 4.4 | -15.4 4.3 010 9 5 8.0 4.4
17500 -14.4 6.1 030 13 7 7.4 4.1 | -14.2 6.4 010 9 5 7.6 4.2
17000 -13.3 8.1 030 13 7 7.4 4.1 | -13.1 8.4 015 8 4 7.6 4.2
16500 -12.2 10.0 030 13 7 7.2 3.9 | -11.9 10.6 020 8 4 7.5 4.1
16000 -11.1 12.0 030 13 7 6.9 3.8 | -10.8 12.6 020 7 4 7.4 4.1
15500 -10.1 13.8 025 13 6 6.7 3.7 | -9.7 14.5 020 7 3 7.3 4.0
15000 -9.2 15.4 025 12 6 5.3 2.9 | -8.7 16.3 020 6 3 6.8 3.7
14500 -8.5 16.7 020 11 6 5.4 3.0 | -7.7 18.1 015 5 3 6.8 3.7
14000 -7.7 18.1 015 10 5 4.7 2.6 | -6.7 19.9 360 5 2 6.3 3.5
13500 -7.0 19.4 005 8 4 4.8 2.6 | -5.8 21.6 345 4 2 6.4 3.5
13000 -6.3 20.7 355 7 4 5.1 2.8 | -4.8 23.4 320 4 2 6.4 3.5
12500 -5.6 21.9 345 7 4 5.0 2.7 | -3.9 25.0 305 5 2 6.4 3.5
12000 -4.8 23.4 335 7 3 6.6 3.6 | -2.9 26.8 295 5 3 7.0 3.9
11500 -3.8 25.2 335 7 3 6.6 3.6 | -1.9 28.6 290 5 3 7.0 3.8
11000 -2.8 27.0 330 7 3 8.3 4.5 | -0.8 30.6 285 5 3 8.0 4.4
10500 -1.6 29.1 330 6 3 9.2 5.0 | 0.3 32.5 285 4 2 8.9 4.9
10250 -1.0 30.2 330 6 3 4.7 2.6 | 0.9 33.6 280 4 2 4.5 2.5
10000 -0.7 30.7 335 6 3 6.7 3.7 | 1.2 34.2 280 3 2 6.3 3.4
9750 0.1 32.2 330 6 3 12.6 6.9 | 1.9 35.4 275 3 2 11.9 6.5
9500 1.0 33.8 330 6 3 11.3 6.2 | 2.7 36.9 270 3 1 10.6 5.8
9250 1.8 35.2 325 6 3 8.7 4.8 | 3.4 38.1 265 3 1 8.2 4.5
9000 2.3 36.1 325 6 3 7.7 4.2 | 4.0 39.2 260 2 1 8.1 4.5
8750 3.0 37.4 325 6 3 11.0 6.0 | 4.7 40.5 260 2 1 11.3 6.2
8500 3.8 38.8 315 6 3 10.6 5.8 | 5.5 41.9 260 2 1 10.7 5.8
8250 4.6 40.3 310 5 3 8.6 4.7 | 6.3 43.3 255 2 1 9.3 5.1
8000 5.2 41.4 305 5 3 7.9 4.3 | 7.0 44.6 255 2 1 9.1 5.0
7750 5.8 42.4 295 5 2 9.4 5.2 | 7.7 45.9 255 2 1 11.3 6.2
7500 6.5 43.7 280 5 2 7.7 4.2 | 8.6 47.5 250 2 1 10.4 5.7
7250 6.9 44.4 275 5 2 5.3 2.9 | 9.2 48.6 250 1 1 8.4 4.6
7000 7.3 45.1 265 5 2 5.5 3.0 | 9.9 49.8 245 1 1 8.7 4.8
6750 7.8 46.0 260 5 3 6.8 3.8 | 10.6 51.1 245 1 1 11.7 6.4
6500 8.3 46.9 255 5 2 7.6 4.2 | 11.6 52.9 240 1 1 12.0 6.6
6250 8.9 48.0 250 4 2 7.4 4.1 | 12.4 54.3 240 1 1 10.6 5.8
6000 9.4 48.9 250 4 2 6.1 3.3 | 13.2 55.8 240 1 1 9.3 5.1
5750 9.9 49.8 240 4 2 10.6 5.8 | 13.9 57.0 235 1 0 15.9 8.7
5500 11.1 52.0 240 3 2 22.8 12.5 | 15.8 60.4 225 1 0 32.6 17.9
05/02/2026 AT 1500 MDT | 05/02/2026 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.6
CINH... 0.0 K INDEX... -18.7 | CINH... -0.5 K INDEX... +7.0
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -59.1 -74.4 285 32 17 0.8 0.4 | -58.8 -73.8 285 34 18 -0.0 -0.0
45000 -57.9 -72.2 285 34 18 -1.3 -0.7 | -58.8 -73.8 290 38 20 -1.4 -0.8
40000 -63.2 -81.8 305 30 15 -3.5 -1.9 | -63.2 -81.8 310 32 16 -2.9 -1.6
38000 -62.3 -80.1 310 31 16 6.1 3.3 | -62.2 -80.0 315 32 17 5.7 3.1
36000 -58.6 -73.5 315 34 17 6.1 3.3 | -58.8 -73.8 320 35 18 5.8 3.2
34000 -54.7 -66.5 320 35 18 8.3 4.5 | -55.0 -67.0 320 36 19 8.2 4.5
32000 -49.2 -56.6 325 31 16 8.2 4.5 | -49.5 -57.1 320 34 18 8.1 4.5
30000 -44.4 -47.9 330 27 14 7.7 4.2 | -44.7 -48.5 320 31 16 8.2 4.5
29000 -42.1 -43.8 330 26 13 7.7 4.2 | -42.2 -44.0 325 29 15 8.2 4.5
28000 -39.8 -39.6 335 24 12 7.7 4.2 | -39.8 -39.6 325 27 14 8.2 4.5
27000 -37.5 -35.5 340 22 11 7.6 4.2 | -37.4 -35.3 325 25 13 7.7 4.2
26000 -35.2 -31.4 340 20 11 7.6 4.2 | -35.0 -31.0 325 23 12 7.8 4.3
25000 -32.9 -27.2 345 19 10 7.6 4.2 | -32.7 -26.9 325 20 10 7.8 4.3
24000 -30.6 -23.1 350 17 9 8.2 4.5 | -30.4 -22.7 325 18 9 8.3 4.5
23000 -28.1 -18.6 350 15 8 8.3 4.6 | -27.9 -18.2 320 16 8 8.4 4.6
22000 -25.6 -14.1 350 12 6 8.3 4.6 | -25.4 -13.7 315 14 7 8.4 4.6
21000 -23.1 -9.6 350 10 5 8.2 4.5 | -22.9 -9.2 305 13 7 8.3 4.5
20000 -20.7 -5.3 345 9 5 8.2 4.5 | -20.4 -4.7 300 13 7 8.3 4.6
19500 -19.4 -2.9 340 9 5 8.2 4.5 | -19.2 -2.6 300 13 7 8.3 4.6
19000 -17.6 0.3 330 8 4 8.0 4.4 | -17.3 0.9 295 13 6 8.3 4.5
18500 -16.4 2.5 330 8 4 7.7 4.2 | -16.1 3.0 295 13 7 8.1 4.5
18000 -15.2 4.6 325 8 4 7.7 4.2 | -14.9 5.2 295 14 7 8.2 4.5
17500 -14.0 6.8 320 7 4 8.4 4.6 | -13.7 7.3 290 14 7 8.1 4.4
17000 -12.8 9.0 315 7 3 8.3 4.6 | -12.5 9.5 290 14 7 8.1 4.4
16500 -11.5 11.3 310 6 3 7.9 4.4 | -11.3 11.7 285 14 7 8.3 4.6
16000 -10.4 13.3 300 6 3 7.7 4.2 | -10.1 13.8 285 13 7 8.5 4.7
15500 -9.3 15.3 295 6 3 7.8 4.3 | -8.8 16.2 285 12 6 8.5 4.7
15000 -8.1 17.4 290 7 3 8.2 4.5 | -7.5 18.5 285 11 6 8.6 4.7
14500 -6.8 19.8 285 7 4 8.2 4.5 | -6.2 20.8 285 10 5 8.6 4.7
14000 -5.6 21.9 280 7 4 8.1 4.4 | -5.0 23.0 280 9 5 8.5 4.7
13500 -4.4 24.1 275 7 4 8.1 4.5 | -3.7 25.3 280 8 4 8.5 4.7
13000 -3.3 26.1 275 7 4 7.9 4.3 | -2.4 27.7 275 7 3 9.0 4.9
12500 -2.1 28.2 275 6 3 7.9 4.3 | -1.0 30.2 275 6 3 9.0 4.9
12000 -0.9 30.4 270 5 3 8.7 4.8 | 0.3 32.5 270 4 2 8.6 4.7
11500 0.4 32.7 265 4 2 8.8 4.8 | 1.6 34.9 255 3 2 8.5 4.7
11000 1.7 35.1 255 3 2 8.7 4.7 | 2.9 37.2 235 2 1 8.9 4.9
10500 3.0 37.4 245 3 1 9.2 5.0 | 4.2 39.6 220 2 1 9.4 5.1
10250 3.6 38.5 235 3 1 6.6 3.6 | 4.9 40.8 210 2 1 7.0 3.9
10000 4.0 39.2 225 3 1 7.3 4.0 | 5.4 41.7 205 2 1 7.6 4.2
9750 4.7 40.5 220 2 1 10.3 5.6 | 6.1 43.0 195 2 1 10.2 5.6
9500 5.5 41.9 210 2 1 9.9 5.4 | 6.8 44.2 185 2 1 10.0 5.5
9250 6.2 43.2 200 3 1 8.5 4.6 | 7.5 45.5 175 2 1 8.4 4.6
9000 6.7 44.1 200 3 1 8.6 4.7 | 8.1 46.6 175 2 1 8.5 4.7
8750 7.5 45.5 195 2 1 10.5 5.8 | 8.8 47.8 165 2 1 10.5 5.8
8500 8.2 46.8 190 2 1 10.0 5.5 | 9.6 49.3 160 2 1 10.0 5.5
8250 8.9 48.0 185 2 1 8.9 4.9 | 10.3 50.5 150 2 1 9.4 5.2
8000 9.6 49.3 180 2 1 9.0 4.9 | 11.0 51.8 150 2 1 9.2 5.0
7750 10.3 50.5 180 2 1 11.1 6.1 | 11.7 53.1 140 2 1 10.1 5.5
7500 11.2 52.2 175 2 1 10.9 6.0 | 12.5 54.5 135 2 1 10.1 5.5
7250 11.9 53.4 170 2 1 9.7 5.3 | 13.2 55.8 125 2 1 9.8 5.4
7000 12.6 54.7 165 2 1 9.5 5.2 | 14.0 57.2 125 2 1 9.8 5.4
6750 13.4 56.1 165 2 1 10.2 5.6 | 14.7 58.5 120 2 1 9.9 5.4
6500 14.2 57.6 160 2 1 10.6 5.8 | 15.4 59.7 115 2 1 10.2 5.6
6250 15.0 59.0 160 2 1 10.9 6.0 | 16.2 61.2 110 2 1 10.5 5.8
6000 15.8 60.4 155 2 1 9.8 5.4 | 17.0 62.6 110 2 1 10.2 5.6
5750 16.6 61.9 155 2 1 14.1 7.7 | 17.8 64.0 105 2 1 10.8 5.9
5500 18.1 64.6 150 2 1 26.8 14.7 | 18.7 65.7 100 2 1 14.6 8.0
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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