358
FXUS65 KBOU 021108
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
508 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME SNOW FOR THE PLAINS
AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT COOLER THAN HI-
RES MODELING. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE DENVER
METRO AS WELL. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE PLAINS (INCLUDING KDEN AND
SURROUNDING LOCATIONS) TO BRIEFLY DROP NEAR/BELOW FREEZING ON
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
OTHERWISE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WE WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY FOR THE PLAINS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S DUE TO
SLIGHTLY STRONGER DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAN SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN LATE SUNDAY LEADING TO SOME CLOUD COVER.
THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE THEN TURN OUR FOCUS TO THE RETURN OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SHOWS
DIFFERENCES IN RESOLVING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE JET STREAM AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE GFS KEEPS THE JET STREAM FURTHER NORTH
IN MT WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT INTO WY. BOTH MODELS ARE STARTING TO
TREND TOWARD THE TROUGH MOVING INTO CO BY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME ON TUESDAY,
BUT THE TIMING HAS BEEN VARYING ACROSS MODELS AND BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM VARIABILITY
IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, TYPE, AND QPF. THUS, IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC QPF AMOUNTS, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING.
FINALLY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
PLAINS OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. THE MODELING OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS HAS NOTABLY INCREASED QPF FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. NEEDLESS
TO SAY... THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST, SO CHECK BACK FOR
UPDATES! GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF TEMPERATURES RETURNING
BACK TO THE 70S LATE NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO
BUILD BACK IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. CURRENT SW DRAINAGE FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY VRB
WINDS <10 KTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY, EVENTUALLY FAVORING
ESE/SE FLOW BY 22-23Z BEFORE RETURNING TO S/SW DRAINAGE SATURDAY
EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MV
AVIATION...BRQ
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