390
FXUS65 KBOU 071902 CCA
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
102 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.
- SUMMERLIKE WARMTH AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WAS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING UNDER DAYTIME
HEATING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LONE STORM OR TWO. ANY CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A SPEED MAX/UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
AND MOUNTAINS, WHILE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE AND ONLY AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR TWO AT MOST.
ON FRIDAY, SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE STABILITY DUE TO SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE'S STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD POP
SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS, SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, AS MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
GROW TO 400-800 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS, SO A COUPLE STORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SPRIGHTLINESS
AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY. THEN SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE
FOR SUNDAY, WITH GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO
INCREASED STABILITY.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK (AT LEAST FROM A
PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE) IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY, WHEN
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE HIGHEST AGREEMENT IN BOTH RIDGING AND WARM
ADVECTION. BLENDED FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER, WITH HIGHS NOW FORECAST TO REACH THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC
FORECASTS SLIDE A FEW DEGREES IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY -
THURSDAY, THAT'S ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE. IT'S STILL LIKELY WE'LL REMAIN A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH HIGHS >80F FOR THE PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REMAIN QUITE SMALL FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE DRAINAGE WINDS FINALLY TURN TO THE WSW/W
ACROSS THE DENVER TAF SITES LATE THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE HEATING
CONTINUES, WE SHOULD SEE MORE W TO WNW WINDS MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL ANTICIPATE
SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON WHETHER THEY WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITES, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THEM STAYING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AIRFIELDS, THOUGH HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT VCSH FOR
KDEN/KAPA THROUGH ROUGHLY 6Z THIS EVENING. WITH THE PASSING
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH, EXPECTING WINDS TO TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 0Z. A FEW HI-RES
SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING (BETWEEN ROUGHLY 12-15Z) THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THIS OUTCOME (10-15%), AS DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN BEFORE THEN THAT WOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN CLOCKWISE FROM DRAINAGE BY THE LATE
MORNING, TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...BRQ
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