809
FXUS65 KBOU 080555
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1155 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE
PLAINS.
- SUMMERLIKE WARMTH AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 80S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WAS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING UNDER DAYTIME
HEATING, WHICH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A LONE STORM OR TWO. ANY CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A SPEED MAX/UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
AND MOUNTAINS, WHILE A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
I-25 CORRIDOR KEEPS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE AND ONLY AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER OR TWO AT MOST.
ON FRIDAY, SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE STABILITY DUE TO SLIGHT COOLING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE'S STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE WE COULD POP
SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS, SO SOMETHING TO WATCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY, AS MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
GROW TO 400-800 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS, SO A COUPLE STORMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE SPRIGHTLINESS
AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SATURDAY. THEN SLIGHT COOLING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE
FOR SUNDAY, WITH GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO
INCREASED STABILITY.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK (AT LEAST FROM A
PROBABILISTIC PERSPECTIVE) IS STILL SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY, WHEN
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE HIGHEST AGREEMENT IN BOTH RIDGING AND WARM
ADVECTION. BLENDED FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER, WITH HIGHS NOW FORECAST TO REACH THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC
FORECASTS SLIDE A FEW DEGREES IN TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY -
THURSDAY, THAT'S ONLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE. IT'S STILL LIKELY WE'LL REMAIN A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH HIGHS >80F FOR THE PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE REMAIN QUITE SMALL FOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT HOUR FOR DEN AND BJC,
WITH APA LIKELY STAYING DRY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BRIEFLY BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEHIND THAT, EXPECT LIGHT NE WINDS, BECOMING
VRB AT TIMES THROUGH 10Z, WITH LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS)
DRAINAGE WINDS RETURNING. IN THE MORNING, A QUICK WIND TRANSITION
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST AT ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING,
BEFORE DRAINAGE WINDS RETURN BY 09Z/10Z, WITH WINDS AS STRONG AS
15 KTS AT TIMES.
DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 40S TONIGHT, HI-RES GUIDANCE
DOES NOT FAVOR FOG FORMING. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE TAKEN FEW004 OUT
OF THE TAF. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE (20% CHANCE) OF
IT FORMING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...MAI
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